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Unusual Option Activity for Aug-17-2020 - GRWG, TDOC, SE (C), ENPH (C)

2020.08.17 23:44 noentic Unusual Option Activity for Aug-17-2020 - GRWG, TDOC, SE (C), ENPH (C)

As always you can find the rest of the UOA and Market Summary at www.noeticoptions.com
Context -
The S&P 500 increased 0.3% but came up short yet again of a record close. The Nasdaq Composite, closed at a new record high with a 1.0% gain.
Investors leaned defensively amid perceived growth concerns attributed to increased U.S.-China tensions, a lack of progress in coronavirus relief talks, and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B 206.78, -4.18, -2.0%) reducing positions in several bank stocks.
The S&P 500 consumer discretionary (+1.2%), real estate (+0.9%), information technology (+0.7%), and health care (+0.6%) sectors assumed today's leadership for their exposure to the mega-caps and stable businesses.
Gold prices gained 2.4% to $1996.80/ozt, and longer-dated Treasuries saw an uptick in demand.
The financials (-1.5%), energy (-0.6%), industrials (-0.5%), and utilities (-0.1%) sectors returned to their usual ways this year by closing in negative territory.
Sentiment in the financial sector was pressured after a 13F filing revealed Berkshire Hathaway decreased positions in JPMorgan Chase (JPM 99.71, -2.70, -2.6%) and Wells Fargo (WFC 24.47, -0.83, -3.3%) in the second quarter. Notably, Berkshire added a new position in Barrick Gold (GOLD 30.13, +3.14, +11.6%).
In U.S.-China news, the U.S. further restricted Huawei's access to U.S. chip technology, and President Trump signed a second executive order requiring TikTok to divest its U.S. operations in 90 days. President Trump also suggested there could still be actions against other Chinese companies, including Alibaba (BABA 256.96, +2.99, +1.2%).
In the mega-cap space, NVIDIA (NVDA 493.48, +30.92, +6.7%), Home Depot (HD 288.24, +7.69, +2.7%), and Walmart (WMT 135.60, +3.00, +2.3%) rallied to fresh all-time highs ahead of their earnings reports this week. Tesla (TSLA 1835.64, +184.93, +11.2%) also climbed to new highs with an 11% gain.
U.S. Treasuries, as previously noted, had a decent outing, particularly on the longer-end of the curve. The 2-yr yield increased two basis points to 0.15%, while the 10-yr yield declined three basis points to 0.68%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.3% to 92.81. WTI crude futures gained 2.2%, or $0.89, to $42.94/bbl.
Looking ahead, investors will receive Housing Starts and Building Permits for July on Tuesday.
Index Summary -
S&P 500 +0.32%; Nasdaq +1.16%;
DOW -0.3%; Russell 2000 +0.52%
VIX: 21.35 -0.7,( -3.17%)
Sector Summary -
The three highest sectors for today were :
Consumer Discretionary +1.29%; Real Estate +0.89%; Information Technology +0.67%;
The three lowest sectors for today were :
Financials -1.67%; Energy -0.58%; Industrials -0.46%;
Commodities -
Gold - 1963.4,( +0.7%); Crude - 41.89,( -0.29%)
Today’s Option Activity Fast Facts -
CBOE Put/Call Ratio - 0.54
Highest Multiple Over Daily Average - CPRI with 13 x the ADV of 3042. There were 845 calls and 37488 puts.
Ticker with Most Contracts - WMT with 419580 contracts traded today with an AVD of 102979. There were 323848 calls and 95732 puts.
Largest Put / Call Ratio - CPRI with a 44.36 P/C ratio. There were 37488 puts and 845 calls.
Largest Call / Put Ratio - VSTO with a 29.18 C/P ratio. There were 10447 calls and 358 puts.
\Stocks must be >$6, Highest Multiple must have >1k ADV, Largest ratios must have an option volume >10k*
Recap -
ZM 266.28 +21.37,(+8.73%)
PSTG 15.97 +0.01,(+0.06%)
BLDR 30.025 -0.245,( -0.81%)
You can find yesterday's post here.
MOMENTUM UNUSUAL OPTION ACTIVITY -
First Momentum Stock Pick -
Ticker : GRWG 16.13 +2.89,(+21.83%) Earnings : 2020-11-16
Name : GrowGeneration Corp.
Industry : Wholesale Distributors, Sector : Distribution Services
Special Considerations : 52WkHigh
Option Information -
Today’s Option Volume: 41322, OptionOI: 31304
Multiple of ADV: 12, ADV: 3590
Total Calls: 36514, Total Puts: 4808
Calls at Ask: 41.8%, Calls at Bid: 38.5%
Puts at Ask: 50.3%, Puts at Bid: 32.8%
C/P Ratio: 7.6
Notable Strikes :
AUG 21 '20 15.0 C had 4792 VLM and 458 OI.
AUG 21 '20 17.5 C had 4168 VLM and 144 OI.
SEP 18 '20 15.0 C had 5378 VLM and 3711 OI.
SEP 18 '20 17.5 C had 4200 VLM and 653 OI.
News :
2020-08-14 20:54:55.807000 - GrowGeneration (GRWG)Hydroponic Equipment Supplier; What The Hell Does That Mean and Is It Worth…
“We carry and sell thousands of products, from organic nutrients, soils, advanced lighting technology, to state-of-the-art hydroponic equipment used by commercial and home growers. Additionally, we…
2020-08-14 18:11:28 - The Week In Cannabis: Stocks Up, Big Earnings Reports, And Funding Rounds
This was a busy week for the cannabis public markets, with several major companies reporting their quarterly results. Canopy Growth Corp. (NYSE: CGC ) (TSX: WEED) said its net revenue rose by 22% year over year, reaching CA$110 million (US$82 million), in the first quarter of fiscal 2021. Following the results, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Pablo Zuanic reiterated a Neutral rating on the stock, while raising the price target from CA$ 25.50 ($19.11) to CA$ 27.50. While the company delivered a sales beat for the first quarter, this was against conservative guidance and its B2B (business-to-business) sales growth lagged the industry, Zuanic said in the note. Tilray (NASDAQ: TLRY ) reported quarterly losses of $(0.66) per share, missing the analyst consensus estimate of $(0.27). The company reported quarterly sales of $50.40 million, falling short of consensus by 8.4 percent. Zuanic maintained a Neutral rating, but lowered his price target from $8 to $7.9. “Despite some of the major cannabis companies posting healthy revenue numbers, these businesses continue to operate with heavy losses.
Potential Sympathy Stocks for GRWG
TSCO, NTR-CT, GWON, GRWG
My Impression :
This stock is seeing a rise related to the likely hood of Marijuana legalization. They sell hydroponic equipment and which will benefit from increased Marijuana production. The stock rose significantly today. I’ll be watching for a pull back and then sell puts around the .30-45 delta. The IV should remain high. I would not mind owning this stock going into the election cycle.
Second Momentum Stock Pick -
Ticker : TDOC 205.02 +17.52,(+9.34%) Earnings : 2020-10-28
Name : Teladoc Health, Inc.
Industry : Hospital/Nursing Management, Sector : Health Services
Option Information -
Today’s Option Volume: 56628, OptionOI: 145464
Multiple of ADV: 2, ADV: 25135
Total Calls: 44052, Total Puts: 12576
Calls at Ask: 46.8%, Calls at Bid: 31.6%
Puts at Ask: 22.9%, Puts at Bid: 32.1%
C/P Ratio: 3.5
Notable Strikes :
AUG 21 '20 200.0 C had 5761.0 VLM and 4434 OI.
AUG 21 '20 205.0 C had 6105.0 VLM and 640 OI.
OCT 16 '20 250.0 C had 1139 VLM and 2671 OI.
News :
2020-08-17 14:09 - Why Teladoc and Livongo Stocks Jumped Today The Motley Fool
The healthcare companies' merger could create a digital health titan.
2020-08-17 13:59:57 - 7 Reasons Why This Teladoc Health Analyst Is Turning Bullish
Teladoc Health Inc’s (NYSE: TDOC ) pro-forma revenue growth and synergy targets appear achievable, according to Credit Suisse. The Teladoc Health Analyst: Jailendra Singh upgraded Teladoc Health from Neutral to Outperform with a price target lifted from $225 to $249. The Teladoc Health Takeaways: The company formed by the merger of Teladoc Health and Livongo Health Inc (NASDAQ: LVGO ) could generate annual revenue of around $5 billion, with annual EBITDA of about $1.1 billion in 2025, Singh said in the upgrade note. The analyst named seven factors that are driving the upgrade: The combination of Teladoc and Livongo creates a … Full story available on Benzinga.com
Potential Sympathy Stocks for TDOC
CYH, HCA, UHS, CSU
My Impression :
I am bullish on this stock. Telemedicine is here to stay and can easily take a significant bite out of Urgent Care clientele. Additionally, it had a significant pull back after announcing the Livongo merger. It’s previous high before the merger was 250. I would look for it to return to these highs over the next year.
CLASSIC UNUSUAL OPTION ACTIVITY -
First Classic UOA Stock Pick -
Ticker : SE 134.28 +7.78,(+6.15%), Earnings : 2020-08-18
Name : Sea Ltd. (Singapore)
Sector : Technology Services, Industry : Internet Software/Services
Option Information :
2020-08-21 144.0 C - 650 @ 3.15 were traded at 13:27 as a BLOCK Spot Price: 132.1
2020-08-21 144.0 C - 650 @ 3.25 were traded at 12:27 as a BLOCK Spot Price: 131.89
News :
No significant news for SE.
Potential Sympathy Stocks for SE
WMB, EPD, ENB, SRE
Second Classic UOA Stock Pick -
Ticker : ENPH 75.04 +1.88,(+2.57%), Earnings : 2020-11-10
Name : Enphase Energy, Inc.
Sector : Electronic Technology, Industry : Semiconductors
Option Information :
2020-09-18 90.0 C - 913 @ 1.99 were traded at 14:36 as a SWEEP Spot Price: 75.03
News :
2020-08-12 07:55 - Unusual Options Activity Insight: Enphase Energy
https://cloud.iexapis.com/v1/news/article/7ec000b8-3a83-47ff-a3f1-30a6a14e3906
Shares of Enphase Energy (NASDAQ: ENPH) saw some unusual options activity on Wednesday. Following the unusual option alert, the stock price moved up to …
2020-08-10 11:21 - Generac, the Backup Generator Giant, Launches Souped-Up Home Solar-Storage System
Solar-battery systems may be useful for providing backup power during power outages. But many of the systems on the market today don’t pack enough punch to start up power-hungry air conditioner or pumps, or store enough power to run an entire home’s electricity load for more than a handful of hours at a time. That’s how Generac Power Systems sees it, at least. Since its entry into the solar-storage market last fall, the U.S. natural gas backup generator giant has focused on systems with extra oomph, compared to competitors like Tesla, Sunrun and LG Chem. While that extra power and capacity has come at a higher cost, Generac has been dropping prices to match competing systems in recent months, analysts say. On Monday, Generac unveiled the latest version of its “whole-home solar power solution," which includes a revamped PWRCell battery with more power and capacity than before, along with technology to simplify its off-grid operations and maximize its backup potential at the household circuit level.
Potential Sympathy Stocks for ENPH
FSLR, ASTI, SPWR, ABB
Upcoming Events for Next Trading Day -
Here you can find a full list of tomorrow's events with explanations.
Thanks for reading.
DISCLAIMER – These are my observations that I have made at the end of each day and trades that I am considering placing or watching. I am not responsible for your financial losses if you follow any of these trades. As always, do your due diligence.
Company Summary : GRWG
GrowGeneration Corp. engages in the retail of hydroponic and organic specialty gardening products. It offers lighting fixtures, nutrients, seeds and growing media systems, trays, fans, filters, humidifiers and dehumidifiers, timers, instruments, water pumps, irrigation supplies, and hand tools. The company was founded by Darren Lampert and Michael Salaman on March 6, 2014 and is headquartered in Denver, CO.
Company Summary : TDOC
Teladoc Health, Inc. engages in the provision of telehealthcare services using a technology platform via mobile devices, the Internet, video and phone. Its portfolio of services and solutions covers medical subspecialties from non-urgent, episodic needs like flu and upper respiratory infections, to chronic, complicated medical conditions like cancer and congestive heart failure. The company was founded on June 13, 2002 by George Byron Brooks and is headquartered in Purchase, NY.
Company Summary : SE
Sea Ltd. (Singapore) is an internet and mobile platform company. The firm engages in the provision of online gaming services. It operates through the following segments: Digital Entertainment, E-Commerce and Digital Financial Services. The Digital Entertainment segment offers access to game-related content through game forums, group voice chat, live streaming, and other user socializing functions on the Garena mobile app and desktop application. The E-Commerce segment manages third-party marketplace through Shopee mobile app and websites that connects buyers and sellers. The Digital Financial Services segment includes financial services to individuals and businesses, including e-wallet and payment services through the AirPay mobile app and AirPay counter applications on mobile phones or computers. The company was founded by Xiao Dong Li, Gang Ye and Jing Ye Chen on May 8, 2009 and is headquartered in Singapore.
Company Summary : ENPH
Enphase Energy, Inc. engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of microinverter systems for the solar photovoltaic industry. Its products include IQ 7 Microinverter Series, IQ Battery, IQ Envoy, IQ Microinverter Accessories, IQ Envoy Accessories, and Enlighten & Apps. The company was founded by Raghuveer R. Belur and Martin Fornage in March 2006 and is headquartered in Fremont, CA.
submitted by noentic to u/noentic [link] [comments]


2020.07.30 15:29 PoliticsModeratorBot Megathread: President Trump Suggests Delaying 2020 Presidential Election

President Trump on Thursday suggested delaying November’s presidential election.
The dates of federal elections are set by Congress, and the Constitution makes no provisions for a delay to the Jan. 20 inauguration.
Any such move would require a change of federal law, meaning it would need to go through Democrats in the House of Representatives in addition to the Republican-controlled Senate. (The Congressional Research Service actually weighed in on this topic in March, specifically noting that a president has no legal authority to change the date of the election.)

Submissions that may interest you

SUBMISSION DOMAIN
Trump call for delay of US election. bbc.com
Trump floats election 'delay' amid claims of voting fraud apnews.com
Trump: 'Delay election' because it will be the 'most inaccurate and fraudulent in history' news.sky.com
2020 Election Live Updates: Trump Floats Whether to ‘Delay the Election,’ Something He Cannot Legally Do nytimes.com
Trump suggests US should ‘delay’ election, but decision would be up to Congress wavy.com
Trump suggests “delay” of November election bostonherald.com
Trump calls for Delay of 2020 election news.yahoo.com
Trump Comes Out and Says It: Maybe We Should Delay the Presidential Election thedailybeast.com
Delay the election? President Trump tweets 2020 election would be 'embarrassment' to USA fox17.com
Trump floats election ‘delay’ amid claims of voting fraud kbtx.com
Trump Suggests Unprecedented Delay to November Election nbcnewyork.com
Trump floats Delaying Election despite lack of authority to do so cnn.com
Trump floats delaying election despite lack of authority to do so localnews8.com
Trump Suggests Delaying Presidential Election Due To Mail-In Voting huffpost.com
Trump Floats idea of delaying the November election washingtonpost.com
Trump suggests delaying election amid fraud claims, but has no power to do so cnbc.com
Trump suggests delaying November U.S. presidential election reuters.com
Trump floats delaying the election, but he can't do that nbcnews.com
Trump calls for delaying election over mail-in voting in tweet palmbeachpost.com
Trump calls for delayed Election Day after initially saying rumors of change were "made up propaganda" newsweek.com
Trump floats delaying election over mail-in voting, legal experts say that power rests with Congress usatoday.com
Trump Floats Idea of Delaying U.S. Presidential Election bloomberg.com
Trump raises idea of delaying election thehill.com
Trump floats delaying November election axios.com
Trump floats idea of delaying 2020 election marketwatch.com
Trump suggests delaying 2020 election over unfounded claims mail-in voting will be 'fraudulent independent.co.uk
Trump Suggests Delaying the U.S. Presidential Election haaretz.com
Trump suggests delaying election over mail-in voting palmbeachpost.com
President Trump, lagging in the polls, floats idea of delaying election bostonglobe.com
Trump raises possibility of delaying November U.S. presidential election reuters.com
Trump suggests delaying the election over mail-in voting businessinsider.com
Trump Suggests Unprecedented Delay to November Election — But Congress Sets the Date nbclosangeles.com
Donald Trump suggests delay to 2020 US presidential election bbc.com
Trump floats election ‘delay’ amid claims of voting fraud nydailynews.com
Trump wants to delay, likely an attempt to improve approval ratings reuters.com
President Trump is contemplating delaying November Elections, Maricopa County recorder, Adrian Fontes says he won’t comply. azfamily.com
Trump raises possibility of delaying the election - but that power rests in Congress reuters.com
April 24: Biden says he thinks Trump will try to delay the November election nbcnews.com
Trump floats delaying the presidential election, which he can't do theweek.com
Gov. Whitmer blasts President Trump over suggestion to delay election freep.com
Trump suggests delaying presidential election as dire economic data released theguardian.com
Trump suggests delaying election amid claim of voting fraud nj.com
Trump tweet suggests delaying election over mail-in voting fraud claims msnbc.com
Cramer says Trump's election delay suggestion 'sows chaos and chaos is bad for the stock market' cnbc.com
Trump suggests delaying November election, something he doesn't have the power to do abcnews.go.com
Trump floats delaying 2020 election politico.com
Why Trump Can't Delay 2020 Election, Even If He Wanted to newsweek.com
'We Are Teetering on the Edge of Autocracy,' Warn Critics After Trump Suggests Election Delay commondreams.org
Twitter Explodes After Trump Suggests Delaying Election (Current U.S. Law Says He Can’t) lawandcrime.com
Pelosi responds to Trump floating election delay by quoting from Constitution thehill.com
Trump Floats Delaying The Election. It Would Require A Change In Law npr.org
What Trump has said about delaying the election or not accepting its results - The president’s rhetoric about voting has gotten more extreme the lower he sinks in the polls. washingtonpost.com
Trump floats delaying election youtube.com
Trump suggests delaying presidential election as he makes unsubstantiated voting fraud claim ktla.com
Legal experts blast Trump floating election delay thehill.com
Donald Trump suggests the election should be delayed, but DeSantis says Florida is ‘ready to go’ tampabay.com
Senate Republicans dismiss Trump proposal to delay election thehill.com
Trump floats idea of delaying Nov. 3 vote, but Congress controls election date - Twitter previously affixed warning to Trump tweet with dubious claims about mail-in voting cbc.ca
Republicans openly challenge Trump's tweet on delaying election cnn.com
Arizona Senators Sinema, McSally: November election should not be delayed as Trump suggests azcentral.com
Wisconsin Republicans break with Trump on election delay apnews.com
Pompeo Refuses To Say Trump Doesn’t Have Power To Delay The Elections talkingpointsmemo.com
Trump's call to "delay" the election is a distraction — but it's also a serious threat salon.com
Pompeo Reacts to Trump’s Proposal to Delay November Election usnews.com
Republicans flat-out reject Trump's suggestion to delay election politico.com
Trump Can’t Delay the Election—so He’s Trying to Make it a Chaotic Mess thenation.com
President Trump floats delaying the presidential election, citing his own prediction of fraudulent voting sun-sentinel.com
Swift backlash after Trump suggests delaying election foxnews.com
McConnell, Republicans split with Trump, say the election can't be delayed newsweek.com
Trump wants to delay the election. Big Gretch says, 'If we could hold an election in 1864 in the midst of a Civil War, we can and will hold one in 2020.' m.metrotimes.com
GOP lawmaker says he will oppose any attempts to delay election thehill.com
"There will be no delay:" Top Republicans reject Trump's suggestion to postpone election axios.com
Fox News political editor: Trump 'either trying to provoke a reaction or trying sow doubt' with election delay idea thehill.com
Raimondo on Trump’s tweet to delay elections: ‘He’s insane’ wpri.com
Fox Host Jumps on Trump’s ‘Delay the Election’ Train After Mocking Biden’s Warning thedailybeast.com
Republicans shoot down Trump's idea of delaying the election: 'He can't do it' theweek.com
Obama said he most fears Trump undermining the legitimacy of the election two days before Trump suggested delaying the election businessinsider.com
No, Trump can’t delay the election vox.com
Donald Trump's Weak, Self-Defeating Call for Delaying the Election. nationalreview.com
The city council of Round Rock TX, a suburb of Austin, has voted to delay their own elections by 6 months more than allowed by state law. statesman.com
Top Republicans Aren’t Backing Trump’s Idea To Delay The Election buzzfeednews.com
McConnell And McCarthy Say No Way To Election Delay: ‘We Should Go Forward’ talkingpointsmemo.com
Joe Biden accused Trump of trying to delay the election. He should know better. washingtonpost.com
Fox Host: Trump’s Suggested Election Delay Is A ‘Flagrant Expression Of His Current Weakness’ talkingpointsmemo.com
Right-Wing Media Figures Mixed on Trump’s Suggestion of Delaying 2020 Election rightwingwatch.org
Trump’s suggestion to delay the election is the most anti-democratic thing any president ever said washingtonpost.com
No, Trump Can't Delay the Election reason.com
Delay the election? Take Trump seriously. Laws and the Constitution haven't stopped him yet. usatoday.com
Does Trump have power to delay election? bbc.com
Trump Can’t Delay the Election. He Can Still Do Lasting Harm. - Republicans should condemn the president’s unfounded assertion that this year’s vote will be illegitimate. bloomberg.com
Donald Trump Is Terrified of Voters: The president’s call for a delayed election points to his own deep-seated insecurities, not the imminent collapse of our electoral democracy. newrepublic.com
President Trump floats delaying the presidential election chicagotribune.com
Delay the election? That's not what we do here cnn.com
Sen. John Cornyn Still Won't Push Back at Trump, Even After He Threatens to Delay Election sacurrent.com
From Distracting Nation From Economic Crash to 'Freaking Out About Losing,' Trump's Threat to Delay Election Seen as No Joke commondreams.org
Trump faces pushback after suggesting election could be delayed thehill.com
Trump’s ‘Delay the Election’ tweet brings swift reactions ctpost.com
Trump's Election Delay Threat Is a Coup in the Making - Trump's tweet was a shocking display of his authoritarian impulses and his very serious consideration of means to de-legitimize the November election in order to maintain his grip on power, no matter what. commondreams.org
Why Trump Has No Power to Delay the 2020 Election — We answer some key questions about holding elections in a crisis. And no, the president cannot cancel an election on his own. nytimes.com
Why Trump cannot delay the election – plus the truth about mail-in voting theguardian.com
In a rare move, Texas Republicans tell President Trump "no" after he calls for delaying the election — something he's not legally allowed to do texastribune.org
Trump doubles down on possible delay to 2020 election independent.co.uk
Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., asked whether the president has the right to delay an election, responded: "I'll get back to you." nbcnews.com
Federalist Society co-founder calls Trump's tweet about delaying election "fascistic" axios.com
Trump's tweet about delaying the election is just the beginning of a much more dangerous plan independent.co.uk
Washington’s Attorney General Started Prepping In March To Sue If Trump Tried To Delay The Election. Trump’s Campaign Called It “The Dumbest Thing.” buzzfeednews.com
Republicans to Trump: You can't delay 2020 election bbc.com
Trump defends tweet on possible Election Day delay at contentious press conference foxnews.com
Trump defends tweet suggesting delay in 2020 election marketwatch.com
Trump Again Touts Mail-In Voting Conspiracies After Floating Election Delay huffpost.com
Federalist Society co-founder says Trump's tweet floating delaying the election is grounds for impeachment cnn.com
McConnell, other top Republicans say Election Day isn't moving after Trump floated delay usatoday.com
Trump, Who Lacks the Authority to Do So, Suggests Delaying the Election motherjones.com
'I don't want a delay': Trump rows back on delaying election but not on mail-in ballots usatoday.com
Perspective - Trump’s ‘Delay the Election’ tweet checks all 8 rules for fascist propaganda washingtonpost.com
Trump faces rare rebuke from GOP for floating election delay apnews.com
Trump faces rare rebuke from GOP for floating election delay cnbc.com
Republicans to Trump: You can't delay election bbc.com
'End of story': Republicans say US election will not be delayed after Trump tweet euronews.com
Fox News Editor: Trump Election Delay Idea Is ‘Flagrant Expression Of His Weakness’ huffpost.com
Coronavirus Developments: Unemployment Up, Herman Caín Dies From COVID-19, Trump Wants To Delay Election ibtimes.com
Republican lawmakers reject Trump suggestion to delay U.S. election news.yahoo.com
'Fascistic:' Trump slammed by Federalist Society co-founder for election delay idea haaretz.com
Donald Trump can't delay the election or stop it, but he can avoid it - The logic behind the U.S. president's tweet suggesting he might try to delay November's vote cbc.ca
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2020.05.04 22:23 mr_tyler_durden Notes and Highlights of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear’s Live Update May 4, 2020

Notes and Highlights of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear’s Live Update May 4, 2020
Notes by mr_tyler_durden and Muted_Independent
Note: We may need to paraphrase, but the notes are accurate
Watch here:
Headlines
Full Notes
Chief of Staff La Tasha Buckner
QUESTIONS
END QUESTIONS
Please use these hashtags on social media (Twitter, FB, etc.): #TeamKentucky #TogetherKY #Patriot #HealthyAtHome
If you have been laid off/lost your job use the following resources to get help!
KY Medicaid: https://healthbenefitexchange.ky.gov (855-459-6328)
Benefind: https://benefind.ky.gov (855-306-8959)
If you see price gouging report by calling 888-432-9257
To donate PPE call 833-GIVE-PPE (833-448-3773) or go to the website.
If you see a business or person not following the guidelines and putting others at risk call 833-KY-SAFER (833-597-2337) or report it on the website
As always our one true source of information should be the http://kycovid19.ky.gov/ website or the hotline: 800-722-5725
You can find more information on our Wiki!
We are also up and running on Discord!
submitted by mr_tyler_durden to Coronavirus_KY [link] [comments]


2020.03.29 06:00 kiwifinn New York COVID-19 Mortality Projection compared to U. Washington Projection

previous post on this topic: https://www.reddit.com/medicine/comments/fpx59k/u_washington_prediction_of_us_hospitalization/ This post is an update, including NY data through March 28.
This University of Washington paper (HME COVID-19 health service utilization forecasting team. Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months. MedRxiv. 26 March 2020, ), dated Mach 26, 2020, makes the following predictions for the NY state response to COVID-19.
The following figure summarizes these conclusions:

📷


I suspect that this projection, as dire as it seems, is understated.
For reference, the population of New York State is 19.5 M. Thus, the University of Washington paper projects a four-month death toll of 0.05% (range: 0.03% - 0.13%). In percentage terms, this projection does not seem dire. (But, for point of reference, “annually, 12,093 New York State Residents are hospitalized [not killed] due to traffic related injuries.” https://www.health.ny.gov/statistics/prevention/injury_prevention/traffic/new_york_state/nys_leading_causes.pdf).
However, New York’s mortality data through today suggest that the 4-month mortality may be much higher.
Gov. Cuomo today (3/28) reported a peak hospital stress in 14-21 days ("State officials believe the state will need 140,000 beds when it reaches the apex of the pandemic in an estimated 14 to 21 days, Cuomo said." https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/28/health/us-coronavirus-weekend-saturday/index.html). That predicted date range is April 11-18, i.e., 5-12 days later than the U. Wash. model predicts.
To extrapolate the U. Washington projection from April 6 to April 11-18, I did the following. First, I obtained the NY cumulative mortality data, by date, from this site: https://covidtracking.com/data/ and https://covidtracking.com/data/#NY). I fit a straight line to the logs (base 10) of the data. Then, I extrapolated that fit, anti-logged, into April, as follows:
📷
My extrapolation is consistent with the U. Washington projection: they have 10.3K (range: 5,200−26K) deaths, and my extrapolation gives 24K.
My projection gives these results:
Projected deaths assuming peak hospitalization occurs on April 11: 170K
Projected deaths assuming peak hospitalization occurs on April 18: 2.5M.
These values exceed the U. Wash. numbers by ratios of 16 – 2,000.
One likely weakness of this projection is that I extrapolate cumulative death, and the U. Washington paper shows hospitalization by date. Death is a lagging indicator to hospitalization, and so perhaps I have made a systematic error.
Of note, the upper value of my projection, 2.5M, corresponds to death of 18% of the state’s population. This number is clearly far above death rates quoted anywhere. However, even the U. Washington paper predicts that there will be insufficient hospital beds on April 6, and one might expect that the mortality rate for people who need hospitalization but are denied it will be high. Fixing this error is for you MDs, not me.
https://preview.redd.it/0qfnknh4hjp41.png?width=1431&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a0f5645084e775c024dfdb4e3f5bb07f6014813
submitted by kiwifinn to medicine [link] [comments]


2020.03.27 13:55 rusticgorilla Trump's coronavirus response: Aid for those who pay and praise

Welcome, dear readers, to the first installment of my coronavirus roundup. If you all find it helpful, I'll post these every Thursday-Friday in addition to Lost in the Sauce on Mondays.
I intend to keep these focused on the administration’s response to the pandemic, in the hopes of increasing accountability for the government’s actions. Up until this point, keep_track has been centered on investigations into Trump, but I think the magnitude of what we’re facing today warrants expanding the scope of this subreddit for the time being.
Housekeeping:

Deluge of warnings ignored

As the novel coronavirus outbreak has intensified over the past weeks, we continue to learn that the Trump administration ignored numerous warnings and curtailed significant preparation steps that would have helped respond to the pandemic more quickly and effectively.

Pandemic playbook

In 2016, the National Security Council (NSC) created a “pandemic playbook” based on lessons learned from the 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak, meant to instruct future administrations on the best strategies to respond to an outbreak. The contents have been revealed to be especially relevant to the coronavirus pandemic, addressing almost every problem the Trump administration has struggled with so far:
...the government should’ve begun a federal-wide effort to procure that personal protective equipment at least two months ago. “Is there sufficient personal protective equipment for healthcare workers who are providing medical care?” the playbook instructs its readers, as one early decision that officials should address when facing a potential pandemic. “If YES: What are the triggers to signal exhaustion of supplies? Are additional supplies available? If NO: Should the Strategic National Stockpile release PPE to states?”
Other recommendations include that the government move swiftly to fully detect potential outbreaks, secure supplemental funding and consider invoking the Defense Production Act — all steps in which the Trump administration lagged behind the timeline laid out in the playbook.
The Trump administration was told of the playbook in 2017 but according to a former U.S. official, “it just sat as a document that people worked on that was thrown onto a shelf.” One person was interested in the playbook - Tom Bossert, then-Homeland Security Adviser and chief of the department’s global health security unit. Though Bossert “expressed enthusiasm” about using the lessons to create an official strategy to fight pandemics, Trump fired Bossert and disbanded both the Homeland Security global health team and its counterpart in the NSC.
Summary: The Trump Administration failed to utilize a pandemic playbook that would have helped guide urgent decisions and coordinate the all-of-government approach that Trump has failed to master. If the playbook had been followed, the government would have begun responding to the outbreak in January.

Homeland Security pandemic models

Under the Trump administration, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) stopped running models to simulate the effects of a pandemic on U.S. society and infrastructure. Since 2005, a team inside DHS worked with analysts and supercomputers to analyze the consequences of a pandemic and “guide policymakers toward areas that would demand their attention in the event of an outbreak.” However, in 2017 the program was brought to an end when Trump administration officials disputed the value of the work.
One 2015 DHS report, based partly on data produced by NISAC, warned that America’s public and private health systems might “experience significant shortages in vaccines, antivirals, pharmaceuticals needed to treat secondary infections and complications, personal protective equipment (PPE), and medical equipment, including ventilators.”
...Some of the predictions in the July 2015 DHS report were eerily prescient about the kinds of issues that the U.S. has faced in recent weeks because of the coronavirus; the report said that “a severe influenza pandemic could overwhelm the Healthcare and Public Health Sector in as little as 3-6 weeks” and warned that healthcare facilities in cities could be swamped.
A former DHS official criticized the agency for being “singularly focused on border enforcement” under Trump and neglecting to properly plan for other threats, like a pandemic: “We should not be surprised that a department that has for the last 3½ years viewed itself solely as a border enforcement agency seems ill-equipped to address a much greater threat to the homeland,” Juliette Kayyem said.
Following the government’s realization that the coronavirus outbreak poses a serious threat, some Trump officials have requested that DHS try to dig up these old modeling reports and analyses. “Nobody even knew where any of the documents were anymore,” one of the former officials said.
Summary: If the pandemic models had been maintained properly, the Trump administration would have had an earlier understanding of where shortages might occur, and acted accordingly to address them. Instead, “a lot of what we’re doing now is shooting in the dark,” according to a former DHS official.

Crimson Contagion

Three times over the past four years, the Department of Health and Human Services ran an exercise simulating a real-world influenza pandemic and testing agencies on their response. The first took place in 2016 under the Obama administration, using the lessons learned from the Ebola outbreak.
Then, during the transition to the Trump administration, outgoing Obama officials put incoming Trump officials through the exercise to prepare them for the possibility. Among the officials who took part - Rex Tillerson, John Kelly, Rick Perry, and Tom Bossert, all of whom became casualties of the administration's high turnover. Lisa Monaco, Obama’s homeland security adviser, coordinated the exercise and said she was impressed with how seriously the now-former officials took the lessons.
“We modeled a new strain of flu in the exercise precisely because it’s so communicable,” Ms. Monaco said. “There is no vaccine, and you would get issues like nursing homes being particularly vulnerable, shortages of ventilators.”
The most recent pandemic exercise was run just last year and involved twelve states and over a dozen federal agencies, including DHS and NSC. The scenario was eerily similar to the one we’re living through now: a pandemic flu that originated in China and was exported via humans on airlines. The symptoms, also similar: fever, dry cough, low energy. It became immediately clear that federal and state officials did not know how to respond, confused about everything from shutting down non-essential businesses to how to orderly handle medical shortages.
Confusion emerged as state governments began to turn in large numbers to Washington for help to address shortages of antiviral medications, personal protective equipment and ventilators. Then states started to submit requests to different branches of the federal government, leading to bureaucratic chaos.
The United States, the organizers realized, did not have the means to quickly manufacture more essential medical equipment, supplies or medicines, including antiviral medications, needles, syringes, N95 respirators and ventilators, the agency concluded.
Summary: Many agencies and current officials were aware of the potential for a respiratory virus outbreak originating in China to spread quickly to the United States and overwhelm the nation. Yet, they were not prepared for the coronavirus and Trump continues to claim that “nobody ever thought of numbers like this.”

Complete disregard for intelligence

The Trump administration was warned about the specific threat posed by the coronavirus at the beginning of the year. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar was officially alerted by the CDC on January 3. In the weeks that followed, U.S. intelligence agencies issued consistent warnings that the outbreak in China was more severe than the public realized. Yet publicly, Trump and Republican lawmakers minimized the threat and insisted that the outbreak was under control.
Despite these ominous warnings, “Trump’s advisers struggled to get him to take the virus seriously.” Azar tried to discuss the matter with Trump in early January, but could not get through to the president until Jan. 18. Finally, with Trump on the phone, Azar attempted to bring up the warnings but the president “interjected to ask about vaping and when flavored vaping products would be back on the market.”
In late January, aides convened regular meetings in an attempt to get Trump to understand the severity of the threat, but “Trump was dismissive because he did not believe that the virus had spread widely throughout the United States.” Some officials even foresaw the shortages of coronavirus test kits, calling for a more forceful response, but Trump again resisted.
According to The Washington Post, Trump dismissed his own intelligence officials and chose instead to believe China’s President Xi Jingping.
Some of Trump’s advisers told him that Beijing was not providing accurate numbers of people who were infected or who had died, according to administration officials. Rather than press China to be more forthcoming, Trump publicly praised its response.
Note: Last year, the Trump administration defunded a position inside the CDC’s China office that would have provided a headstart in responding to the coronavirus outbreak before it reached the U.S. Such a specialist on the ground “could have provided real-time information to U.S. and other officials around the world during the first weeks of the outbreak, when they said the Chinese government tamped down on the release of information and provided erroneous assessments.”

More recent warnings discounted

There were so many alarms set off in the past few months, it’s difficult to list them all. Here are some of the most prominent. Remember that Trump did not publicly acknowledge that the coronavirus was a threat until March 16.
Jan. 28: Former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb and former NSC Director for Medical and Biodefense Preparedness Luciana Borio published an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal titled “Act Now to Prevent an American Epidemic.” The pair called for expanded testing and isolation, increased efforts to vaccinate for the regular flu to reduce the load on hospitals, a massive operation to provide hospitals with medical supplies like masks, and immediate prioritizing of vaccine development. Their recommendations were spot on - the U.S. is still unable to widely test for the virus and hospitals are having to rely on makeshift masks and gowns.
  • Trump on Jan. 29: “The risk of infection for Americans remains low, and all agencies are working aggressively to monitor this continuously evolving situation and to keep the public informed.”
Jan. 30: Dr. James Hamblin published an analysis in the Atlantic titled “We Don’t Have Enough Masks,” warning that already at the end of January the supplies of protective equipment were running out. “This threat of shortages of basic medical tools extends well beyond masks. In a serious pandemic, the U.S. is not prepared to be isolated for long,” he wrote.
  • Trump on Jan. 30: “We think we have it very well under control… We only have five people. Hopefully, everything's going to be great.”
Feb. 4: Gottlieb and Borio published another piece in the Wall Street Journal, titled “Stop a U.S. Coronavirus Outbreak Before It Starts.” They warned that Trump’s Chinese travel ban was inadequate to prevent the spread of coronavirus in the U.S. and implored the CDC to change its testing guidelines to include all individuals, not just those who visited China recently.
  • Trump on Feb. 10: “I think the virus is going to be — it’s going to be fine.”
Feb. 12: Gottlieb and Borio participated in a Senate Homeland Security Committee meeting to sound the alarm that the actual number of coronavirus cases is “much, much higher” than reported and “very concerning for a pandemic.” Gottlieb told senators that the U.S. desperately needed to expand testing and predicted: “We’re going to see those outbreaks start to emerge in the next two to four weeks.” Trump administration officials were asked to participate in the Senate hearing, but they refused.
  • Trump on Feb. 24: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. … Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
Feb. 25: The most significant warning from within the administration came from senior CDC official Nancy Messonnier, who alerted reporters that Americans should be prepared for “community spread” of the coronavirus within the U.S. “Disruption to everyday life might be severe,” Messonnier said. Rather than take heed of her warning, Trump called Azar and complained that Messonnier was scaring the stock markets.
  • Trump on Feb. 27: "When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done."

It gets worse...

A quick end to a non-existent lockdown?

After suddenly changing his public messaging to support social distancing on March 16, Trump just as suddenly announced that he wanted to rollback national guidelines to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Last Sunday, March 23, the president spent the day retweeting numerous random accounts expressing concern that social distancing measures would harm the economy. For instance, Trump retweeted @SexCounseling’s message stating "The fear of the virus cannot collapse our economy that President Trump has built up."
Then at midnight in D.C., Trump sent the following tweet: “WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!"
Aside from the unavoidable conclusion that random rightwing Twitter accounts are now creating U.S. public health policy, it is obvious that Trump is worried the mitigation measures will ruin his chances of re-election, which he has long based on the success of the economy. Let’s not forget, Trump resisted aggressive testing for the virus because he feared that public knowledge of a pandemic would undermine his campaign.
Last week, we learned of another factor in Trump’s abrupt push to “re-open” the country quickly: Just hours before announcing that he wanted to get people back to work by Easter, Trump hosted a private conference call Tuesday morning with billionaire CEO’s and hedge fund investors. The discussion “focused on how America’s top money managers are viewing markets and the U.S. economy,” with the general consensus being that the U.S. needs “a date-certain approach to getting back to business.” Hours later, Trump went on national TV and pushed for just that.
  • One of the earliest proponents of this “economy first” approach was Goldman Sachs chairman Lloyd Blankfein. It would be hard to argue that the White House didn’t heed the capitalist’s call, as the words Blankfein used seem to be repeated by Trump almost verbatim: “...crushing the economy, jobs and morale is also a health issue-and beyond. Within a very few weeks let those with a lower risk to the disease return to work,” Blankfein tweeted.
Finally, why else might Trump be anxious to end mitigation measures? Six of his top seven biggest revenue-generating properties are now closed under state and/or county guidance: Doral, Turnberry, Mar-a-Lago, Las Vegas, Bedminster, and Doonbeg. Doral resort alone produces $75 million a year, more than Trump’s D.C., Chicago, Vancouver, Waikiki, Aberdeen, and Vegas hotels combined. As the Washington Post explains, Trump is losing about $478,000 a day from the closures.

Defense Production Act

Governors around the country are begging the Trump administration to use the Defence Production Act (DPA) to force corporations and businesses to manufacture desperately needed medical equipment, from ventilators to masks.
Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (D) clashed with President Trump during a conference call with governors on Thursday, pleading with him to take more dramatic action to secure medical supplies for his state as it suffers from the coronavirus pandemic… After Trump told governors that his administration was ready to be the “backup” for states in crisis, Inslee spoke up and said to the president, “We don’t need a backup. We need a Tom Brady.” ...Inslee, they added, also alluded to the Defense Production Act and said Washington state needs businesses to be more than encouraged to produce items such as masks and ventilators — they need a federal mandate to force them to act. He said the Pentagon needed to make immediate moves to prod defense companies to provide materials.
  • Note: Trump did not understand the Tom Brady reference. “Somebody in the fake news said that one of the governors said, ‘Oh, we need Tom Brady.’ He meant that in a positive way. He said ‘We need Tom Brady, and we’re gonna do great,’ and he took it very positively. They took it differently. They think Tom Brady should be leading the effort.
Why won’t Trump use widespread enforcement of the DPA? Because big business doesn’t want him to. The New York Times reports that “the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the heads of major corporations have lobbied the administration against using the act.” Instead, corporations are selling vital medical gear to highest-bidding states, netting profits for themselves and middlemen in the process.
Prices change by the day, soaring for the items health-care providers need most. Surgical masks that once cost 3 to 5 cents now cost several dollars a piece, while coveted N95 masks that once cost less than a dollar are now sold for $7.50 or more.
States across the nation have experienced difficulties in obtaining medical supplies, often finding themselves outbid by the federal government itself.
Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker told Trump during a video conference on Thursday that his state three times lost out to the federal government on purchases of critical supplies… “Prices are always a component of that also. And maybe that’s why you lost to the feds, OK, that’s probably why,” Trump said.
Beshear said Kentucky had a line on equipment when "FEMA came out and bought it all out from under us… It is a challenge that the federal government says, 'States, you need to go and find your supply chain,' and then the federal government ends up buying from that supply chain."
Trump could solve this by using the power of the federal government to centralize the purchasing of equipment and streamline delivery to areas based on need rather than purchasing power. However, he has refused to do so, insisting that the governors can handle it on their own.
“Governors are supposed to be doing a lot of this work, and they are doing a lot of this work,” Trump said. “The Federal government is not supposed to be out there buying vast amounts of items and then shipping. You know, we’re not a shipping clerk.”
This quote from Cuomo encompasses what the majority of governors are experiencing:
Gov. Andrew Cuomo: “I’ll contract with a company for 1,000 masks. They’ll call back 20 minutes later and say the price just went up because they had a better offer. And I understand that: Other states who are desperate for these goods, literally, offer more money than we were paying. The states simply cannot manage it. I’m competing with California and Illinois and Florida. And that’s not the way it should be.”

Can we even trust the federal government?

Under a normal administration, citizens could have confidence that the federal government would distribute aid equitably, But not under Trump, who has demanded that governors and officials praise him in order to get funding and supplies: During a Fox town hall on Tuesday, the president said governors “have to treat us well… they can't say, 'Oh, gee, we should get this, we should get that.'" He added, “it’s a two-way street, they have to treat us well.”
A senior White House official confirmed Trump’s statement, telling the Daily Beast: “If you’re good and respectful to [Trump], he will treat you the same—it’s that simple.”
Two of the states in the most need, New York and Washington state, have governors who publicly challenge the president - and their states seem to be suffering for it. For instance, Trump called Inslee “a snake” and instructed Vice President Pence “not to be complimentary” of him, even reportedly refusing to talk to him for weeks when Washington was the only state with confirmed coronavirus deaths. Recently, Trump admonished Cuomo to “keep politics out of” the coronavirus response, referring to criticism of the administration’s slow reaction to the outbreak.
”Everyone is negotiating the challenge of telling the federal government where they are falling behind versus making sure we meet the needs of our citizens by getting federal help, knowing that you risk it if you anger Trump,” said an aide to a Democratic governor involved in handling the coronavirus spread. “It’s a balance that all governors are dealing with right now. Well, not all governors. Democratic governors.”
Last night, on Hannity, Trump again implied that only those who are sufficiently grateful will receive future aid:
Trump: “Some these governors, they take, take, take and then they complain.” (clip) “People live Gov. Inslee, he should be doing more, he shouldn’t be relying on the federal government… he’s always complaining.” (clip)
About Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who asked for a disaster declaration: "She is a new governor, and it's not been pleasant...We don't like to see the complaints." Trump continued, suggesting he may not approve the state’s request: “Now, she wants a declaration of emergency, and, you know, we have to make a decision on that.”

Update

At today's briefing, Trump spelled it out: praise him or suffer.
After complaining about governors in affected states who have taken issue with the federal government's response, Trump says: "All I want them to do, very simple, I want them to be appreciative. I don't want them to say things that aren't true. I want them to be appreciative. We've done a great job.”
Trump has urged Pence not to call governors in affected states who have criticized the federal response.
"I say Mike, don't call the governor of Washington; you're wasting your time with him. Don't call the woman in Michigan. … If they don't treat you right, I don't call."
Watch a clip here

Ventilator shortages

“You want a pat on the back for sending 400 ventilators?” Mr. Cuomo said. “What are we going to do with 400 ventilators when we need 30,000 ventilators? You’re missing the magnitude of the problem, and the problem is defined by the magnitude.”
The Trump administration is trying to catch up to the immediate need for tens of thousands of ventilators nationwide, but refusing to use the DPA and hoping for corporations to volunteer to contribute. Ford and GE are teaming up to manufacture ventilators...that will not begin to be available until June. The months-long delay in taking the coronavirus seriously may cost our nation thousands of lives as deathly-ill patients go without breathing assistance.
Amid growing pressure to provide ventilators, the president was prepared to announce a joint venture between General Motors and Ventec Life Systems for the production of 80,000 ventilators. However, we just learned that the federal government canceled the deal when FEMA revealed the $1 billion price tag. “Some government officials expressed concern about the possibility of ordering too many ventilators, leaving them with an expensive surplus,” the New York Times reported.
  • It’s especially striking that the administration is delaying a life-saving deal over what amounts to just millions in potential savings from shopping around for a better price, particularly when the Senate just passed a stimulus bill that includes $500 billion in “relief” for large companies. The government is unwilling to pay 1/500th of that amount to save countless lives.
Further hampering the response, the effort to produce ventilators has been “confused and disorganized,” perhaps because it is being directed by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. You might remember, Kushner was originally in charge of ramping up the production of coronavirus test kits, and we all know how well that went: Even now, “a critical shortage of swabs and other testing components is, in many cases, making it impossible for labs across the country to expand their capacity.”
Just last night, appearing on Hannity’s show, President Trump cast doubt (clip) on Gov. Cuomo’s claim that New York needs 30,000-40,000 ventilators:
“I have a feeling that a lot of the numbers that are being said in some areas are just bigger than they’re going to be,” he said. “I don't believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators. You go into major hospitals sometimes, and they’ll have two ventilators. And now all of a sudden they’re saying, ‘Can we order 30,000 ventilators?’”
"Look, it’s a bad situation," he added. "We haven’t seen anything like it. But the end result is we have to get back to work and I think we can start by opening up certain parts of the country."
The president compared purchasing a ventilator to purchasing a car, calling the machines "very expensive" and "very intricate."
"And you know they’d say, like Gov. Cuomo and others, they’d say we want 30,000 of them. Thirty thousand?" Trump said. "Think of this, you know you go to hospitals that have one in a hospital and now all of a sudden everyone’s asking for these vast numbers."
submitted by rusticgorilla to Keep_Track [link] [comments]


2019.12.02 09:00 Karankumar213 This Mumbai-based Startup Brings Together India’s Lab Suppliers on One Platform

Biomall is a B2B online e-commerce marketplace dedicated to laboratory, life science and diagnostic products. It is India’s first ecommerce website which offers researchers and lab users’ laboratory products directly online using a secured payment gateway. It was established in the year 2016 by Dr. S. Jhaveri, PhD Chemistry and Chemical Biology from Cornell University, USA.
Majority of scientific laboratories in India still follow the traditional system of inviting multiple quotations, followed by indenting, generation of purchase orders and payment to suppliers 30-90 days after delivery. A single purchase-sale cycle thus lasts for months. Even the rate contract system, wherein a vendor is chosen for a particular brand at the start of the financial year, is inefficient as the institute has to rely on a single vendor who might not have stocks readily available and cannot purchase from any other vendor who might have stocks for the required product. Typically a lab buys products from multiple brands so again they need to contact multiple vendors and a lot of time is invested in procuring day-to-day lab supplies. So while a lab in India would take months just to get their supplies; elsewhere laboratories in countries with more advanced purchasing systems would have already completed their project by the time supplies reach the scientists bench in India! This is a critical factor that needs to be addressed immediately else India will further lag behind in terms of innovations. Also, inefficiencies in systems lead to increased costs and so scientists spend not only more time but also more money to purchase lab products!
Through its online portal, Biomall.in is trying to bring a big change in this system, by incorporating easy and convenient online purchase system as against traditional credit based purchases. The advantage is that scientists can search, compare and buy multiple products from different brands in a single order with a “single click” directly from the suppliers. The user does not require to get multiple quotations since all price details are given online along with real-time product availability thereby saving valuable time.
Scientists have a limited research budget for a project and need to manage their purchases within the available funds. On Biomall, the suppliers have provided good discounts on many products including chemicals, regular lab consumables, chromatography columns, etc. This has been possible by:
  1. Connecting scientists directly with the manufacturers/authorized distributors
  2. Elimination of costly field sales representatives
  3. Timely payment to the suppliers and
  4. Low marketing costs.
All these factors in combination have brought down the product cost and this saving has been passed on to the researchers. Thus, by procuring products from Biomall not only valuable time is saved but the researchers also save money thereby making good use of the funds available for R&D.
Dr. S. Jhaveri is a PhD graduate and a successful entrepreneur based in Mumbai. He has done his Ph.D in Chemistry and Chemical Biology from Cornell University, Ithaca, NY in the year 2007 and also done his bachelors in Chemical Technology specializing in Chemistry of Dyes and Intermediates from ICT, Mumbai (formerly UDCT). He has been awarded Dr. Sundar Aggarwal award for outstanding Indian Students entering Ph.D. program in Chemistry and Chemical Biology at Cornell University.
In the year 2012 he started his distribution business for laboratory products under the company Chargen Life Sciences LLP. During the initial 3 years of distribution business, he studied the lab industry market deeply and analyzed the problems faced by laboratories. Based on this analysis and the growing consumer inclination towards e-Commerce, he found an online platform connecting buyers and sellers of lab products to be a perfect solution to tackle the current problems. Thus, in mid-2016, he launched India’s first online marketplace for laboratory products – Biomall.in.
Earlier he worked as an Independent consultant with Universal Consulting, where he carried out market research on impact of new technologies in the knee implant market in India, assessing market feasibility for a Point-of-Care Testing Device in India and UAE. He was a visiting student at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA.
He has trained mentored and supervised several students. He also lectured in class, graded exams, and conducted office hours for freshman chemistry students in USA. Dr. S Jhaveri believes that passion, hardwork, self-belief and being positive are key mantras to be a successful entrepreneur. We are publishing an interview with him:
Q.: Tell us about the Product / Solution. How did you get your first customer? Explain how you went about the Product-Market Fit Process. Ans: We have developed a customized online portal – www.biomall.in to buy and sell laboratory products worldwide. It hosts 100,000+ products from 150+ brands across 100+ categories – Lab Chemicals, Microbiology, Diagnostics, Chromatography, Genomics, Proteomics, Lab Equipments, Lab Consumables. Laboratory Professionals from life science / biotech companies, pharma companies, academics, hospitals can buy any product required in their laboratories from Biomall.in. We offer digital marketing services to promote the products of Indian manufacturers to laboratories involved in research, testing and diagnostics. In house technical team from science and IT background work together to strategize and execute digital promotion via e-commerce, email, social media, blog, whatsapp and other online media. We also offer services to setup labs from the basics – designing, furnishing and procurement of all kinds of equipments and reagents required in a lab.
When it was launched, we had a different sales model wherein buyers could submit enquiries and get online quotation. We developed the website content as per SEO, so as to get customers via google search. Our first online customer came from Pune, Maharashtra through google search and has been a regular customer till date. Majority of our customers are sourced organically from google even today.
Q.: What is your USP? Ans: The biggest USP is that we are an online platform dedicated only to laboratory, life science and diagnostic products. This separates us from several other marketplaces which sell all kind of products. We give a target customer base to all the sellers who can then use this platform as a good marketing tool as it caters specifically to the scientists, pathologists, medical, pharma & QC professionals.
Also, Biomall acts as a single platform to buy multiple types of lab products from multiple brands in a single order.
It provides the option to buy lab products directly online just by selecting quantity, add to cart and place order by making online payment. Buyers can request for a bulk discount if more than 10 packs are needed. Buyers can also post enquiry for products not found on the portal. This enquiry then gets shared to all registered sellers on the portal who can send an online quote to the buyers as per product availability.
The platform provides a seamless experience to the sellers for managing all orders, enquiries, stock and ongoing offers through their dashboard.
Q.: What were your assumptions when you entered the market, learning that you have? Who in your mind is your ideal customer? Do you have at least one of them signed up? Ans: We thought that considering the response received to online shopping sites like amazon, flipkart, snapdeal, myntra, etc., users in India shall be happy to know about Biomall and buy laboratory products online. Although, most of the scientists like the concept of Biomall, they get constrained by the purchase system followed in their institutes or companies. Nevertheless, we have received many customers from top research institutes like IITs, IISERs, CSIR institutes who prefer to buy chemicals, consumables and other products from our website. Also, many small companies have now begun to order their lab supplies online on Biomall.
An ideal customer for our website would be a scientist who is looking for any lab product, finds it online, compares among different brands, and buy the best suitable. We wish to be the ideal platform for all scientists by offering a complete portfolio of lab products, with detailed information provided on the website and the best delivery service so that they can get their product/s in a hassle free manner.
Q.: What has been your biggest failure as an entrepreneur and what did you learn from it?? Ans: Failures in the past have been about conceptualizing big projects before understanding ground reality
Q.: How are you pricing the Product? What is the logic behind it? What is the model you are following – Free / Freemium / Premium etc. ? Explain your thought process. Ans: We offer different membership plans for suppliers to promote and sell their products on our portal. A free plan is also available to sell stock under clearance sale. Paid membership is available based on the services required by sellers. Prices are decided based on the expense incurred in terms of website maintenance, customer service and marketing service.
Q.: Please tell us about the investors (if any) Ans: Biomall is bootstrapped company and all the investments have come from promoters family business and distribution business of Chargen Life Sciences. However, now we are looking for investors to scale up the business.
Q.: Is there any interesting success story of your startup? If yes, please write about it. ? Ans: We are extremely proud that we have managed to export Indian manufactured products to 35+ Countries via our platform and thus contributing to the Make in India initiative launched by the Government.
Q.: Since inception, give us a sense of the value of business done by your venture? Please explain in detail. (e.g., What is the current turnover? From Launching till date total no. of visitors on website/persons registered/enquiries and enrollment etc.) Ans: The website hosts 100,000+ lab products from 150+ brands across 100+ categories of laboratory, life science and diagnostic products. We have grown from as low as 50 visitors a day to 500 visitors a day. About 5000+ buyers and 500+ sellers are registered with us. Since 2016, we have served 300+ Indian cities and exported to 35+ countries including Middle East, Africa, Europe, USA, South America and Asian countries
Q.: What is the big picture of your startup? Is this Product/service leading to something bigger? If so, how? Ans: Through our online startup, we are trying to bring in the concept of digitalization in the laboratory industry, and also promoting the ‘Make in India’ campaign started by the GOI. Due to the long sales cycle Indian scientists suffer greatly as they do not get products on time. Biomall’s big vision is to reduce the entire sale purchase cycle of lab products so that our scientists can be competitive in the global market when it comes to publishing research at a faster pace. Second, we also want to promote Indian made laboratory products worldwide. India produces good quality lab products but we lack in marketing these products. Biomall aims to change that by producing an excellent marketing platform and making Indian made lab products available to laboratories worldwide.
Also, through Biomall, we have promoted many lesser known Indian manufacturers of laboratory equipment to the global market. Many countries including Africa, Middle East, Asia, Europe and America have shown interest in buying lab products from India. They find Biomall as one stop solution to get all of their laboratory needs from India, at good price and quality.
Q.: Who do You Perceive as Your Competition? How do you differentiate yourself with them? Ans: A few of its indirect competitors in India include B2B online portals like Indiamart, trade India which are widely used by sellers to generate leads. Other competitors include B2B e-commerce platforms like Industry buying & Amazon business who provide an online platform for buying all sort of industrial supplies. These sites are however not focused on the lab industry and do not have a wide range of products that Biomall offers. In India Biomall stands as the only comprehensive platform to target the lab professionals through its customized online eCommerce business model and acts as one point of contact for international buyers interested to source their supplies from India.
Q.: What would be your goal to accomplish in the next six months? Any other information you would like to share? Ans: We continue to expand our product portfolio and we learn a great deal from the customers to understand the products in demand and then lookout for quality suppliers for the same. We are very selective on the suppliers that come on-board and only when they pass our internal quality criteria do we invite them to be part of our platform. Our major focus in future is to increase the reach of Biomall in India and worldwide and provide a vast range of products that the scientists can purchase directly from the suppliers via our platform.
In the next 6 months, we plan to invest in logistics and marketing to increase our reach across different cities in India and outside India. To achieve our goals, we are looking for investors interested to fund a growing B2B online startup.
https://startupsuccessstories.in/this-mumbai-based-startup-brings-together-indias-lab-suppliers-on-one-platform/
submitted by Karankumar213 to u/Karankumar213 [link] [comments]


2019.12.01 17:50 karanhyd213 This Mumbai-based Startup Brings Together India’s Lab Suppliers on One Platform

Biomall is a B2B online e-commerce marketplace dedicated to laboratory, life science and diagnostic products. It is India’s first ecommerce website which offers researchers and lab users’ laboratory products directly online using a secured payment gateway. It was established in the year 2016 by Dr. S. Jhaveri, PhD Chemistry and Chemical Biology from Cornell University, USA.
Majority of scientific laboratories in India still follow the traditional system of inviting multiple quotations, followed by indenting, generation of purchase orders and payment to suppliers 30-90 days after delivery. A single purchase-sale cycle thus lasts for months. Even the rate contract system, wherein a vendor is chosen for a particular brand at the start of the financial year, is inefficient as the institute has to rely on a single vendor who might not have stocks readily available and cannot purchase from any other vendor who might have stocks for the required product. Typically a lab buys products from multiple brands so again they need to contact multiple vendors and a lot of time is invested in procuring day-to-day lab supplies. So while a lab in India would take months just to get their supplies; elsewhere laboratories in countries with more advanced purchasing systems would have already completed their project by the time supplies reach the scientists bench in India! This is a critical factor that needs to be addressed immediately else India will further lag behind in terms of innovations. Also, inefficiencies in systems lead to increased costs and so scientists spend not only more time but also more money to purchase lab products!
Through its online portal, Biomall.in is trying to bring a big change in this system, by incorporating easy and convenient online purchase system as against traditional credit based purchases. The advantage is that scientists can search, compare and buy multiple products from different brands in a single order with a “single click” directly from the suppliers. The user does not require to get multiple quotations since all price details are given online along with real-time product availability thereby saving valuable time.
Scientists have a limited research budget for a project and need to manage their purchases within the available funds. On Biomall, the suppliers have provided good discounts on many products including chemicals, regular lab consumables, chromatography columns, etc. This has been possible by:
  1. Connecting scientists directly with the manufacturers/authorized distributors
  2. Elimination of costly field sales representatives
  3. Timely payment to the suppliers and
  4. Low marketing costs.
All these factors in combination have brought down the product cost and this saving has been passed on to the researchers. Thus, by procuring products from Biomall not only valuable time is saved but the researchers also save money thereby making good use of the funds available for R&D.
Dr. S. Jhaveri is a PhD graduate and a successful entrepreneur based in Mumbai. He has done his Ph.D in Chemistry and Chemical Biology from Cornell University, Ithaca, NY in the year 2007 and also done his bachelors in Chemical Technology specializing in Chemistry of Dyes and Intermediates from ICT, Mumbai (formerly UDCT). He has been awarded Dr. Sundar Aggarwal award for outstanding Indian Students entering Ph.D. program in Chemistry and Chemical Biology at Cornell University.
In the year 2012 he started his distribution business for laboratory products under the company Chargen Life Sciences LLP. During the initial 3 years of distribution business, he studied the lab industry market deeply and analyzed the problems faced by laboratories. Based on this analysis and the growing consumer inclination towards e-Commerce, he found an online platform connecting buyers and sellers of lab products to be a perfect solution to tackle the current problems. Thus, in mid-2016, he launched India’s first online marketplace for laboratory products – Biomall.in.
Earlier he worked as an Independent consultant with Universal Consulting, where he carried out market research on impact of new technologies in the knee implant market in India, assessing market feasibility for a Point-of-Care Testing Device in India and UAE. He was a visiting student at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA.
He has trained mentored and supervised several students. He also lectured in class, graded exams, and conducted office hours for freshman chemistry students in USA. Dr. S Jhaveri believes that passion, hardwork, self-belief and being positive are key mantras to be a successful entrepreneur. We are publishing an interview with him:
Q.: Tell us about the Product / Solution. How did you get your first customer? Explain how you went about the Product-Market Fit Process. Ans: We have developed a customized online portal – www.biomall.in to buy and sell laboratory products worldwide. It hosts 100,000+ products from 150+ brands across 100+ categories – Lab Chemicals, Microbiology, Diagnostics, Chromatography, Genomics, Proteomics, Lab Equipments, Lab Consumables. Laboratory Professionals from life science / biotech companies, pharma companies, academics, hospitals can buy any product required in their laboratories from Biomall.in. We offer digital marketing services to promote the products of Indian manufacturers to laboratories involved in research, testing and diagnostics. In house technical team from science and IT background work together to strategize and execute digital promotion via e-commerce, email, social media, blog, whatsapp and other online media. We also offer services to setup labs from the basics – designing, furnishing and procurement of all kinds of equipments and reagents required in a lab.
When it was launched, we had a different sales model wherein buyers could submit enquiries and get online quotation. We developed the website content as per SEO, so as to get customers via google search. Our first online customer came from Pune, Maharashtra through google search and has been a regular customer till date. Majority of our customers are sourced organically from google even today.
Q.: What is your USP? Ans: The biggest USP is that we are an online platform dedicated only to laboratory, life science and diagnostic products. This separates us from several other marketplaces which sell all kind of products. We give a target customer base to all the sellers who can then use this platform as a good marketing tool as it caters specifically to the scientists, pathologists, medical, pharma & QC professionals.
Also, Biomall acts as a single platform to buy multiple types of lab products from multiple brands in a single order.
It provides the option to buy lab products directly online just by selecting quantity, add to cart and place order by making online payment. Buyers can request for a bulk discount if more than 10 packs are needed. Buyers can also post enquiry for products not found on the portal. This enquiry then gets shared to all registered sellers on the portal who can send an online quote to the buyers as per product availability.
The platform provides a seamless experience to the sellers for managing all orders, enquiries, stock and ongoing offers through their dashboard.
Q.: What were your assumptions when you entered the market, learning that you have? Who in your mind is your ideal customer? Do you have at least one of them signed up? Ans: We thought that considering the response received to online shopping sites like amazon, flipkart, snapdeal, myntra, etc., users in India shall be happy to know about Biomall and buy laboratory products online. Although, most of the scientists like the concept of Biomall, they get constrained by the purchase system followed in their institutes or companies. Nevertheless, we have received many customers from top research institutes like IITs, IISERs, CSIR institutes who prefer to buy chemicals, consumables and other products from our website. Also, many small companies have now begun to order their lab supplies online on Biomall.
An ideal customer for our website would be a scientist who is looking for any lab product, finds it online, compares among different brands, and buy the best suitable. We wish to be the ideal platform for all scientists by offering a complete portfolio of lab products, with detailed information provided on the website and the best delivery service so that they can get their product/s in a hassle free manner.
Q.: What has been your biggest failure as an entrepreneur and what did you learn from it?? Ans: Failures in the past have been about conceptualizing big projects before understanding ground reality
Q.: How are you pricing the Product? What is the logic behind it? What is the model you are following – Free / Freemium / Premium etc. ? Explain your thought process. Ans: We offer different membership plans for suppliers to promote and sell their products on our portal. A free plan is also available to sell stock under clearance sale. Paid membership is available based on the services required by sellers. Prices are decided based on the expense incurred in terms of website maintenance, customer service and marketing service.
Q.: Please tell us about the investors (if any) Ans: Biomall is bootstrapped company and all the investments have come from promoters family business and distribution business of Chargen Life Sciences. However, now we are looking for investors to scale up the business.
Q.: Is there any interesting success story of your startup? If yes, please write about it. ? Ans: We are extremely proud that we have managed to export Indian manufactured products to 35+ Countries via our platform and thus contributing to the Make in India initiative launched by the Government.
Q.: Since inception, give us a sense of the value of business done by your venture? Please explain in detail. (e.g., What is the current turnover? From Launching till date total no. of visitors on website/persons registered/enquiries and enrollment etc.) Ans: The website hosts 100,000+ lab products from 150+ brands across 100+ categories of laboratory, life science and diagnostic products. We have grown from as low as 50 visitors a day to 500 visitors a day. About 5000+ buyers and 500+ sellers are registered with us. Since 2016, we have served 300+ Indian cities and exported to 35+ countries including Middle East, Africa, Europe, USA, South America and Asian countries
Q.: What is the big picture of your startup? Is this Product/service leading to something bigger? If so, how? Ans: Through our online startup, we are trying to bring in the concept of digitalization in the laboratory industry, and also promoting the ‘Make in India’ campaign started by the GOI. Due to the long sales cycle Indian scientists suffer greatly as they do not get products on time. Biomall’s big vision is to reduce the entire sale purchase cycle of lab products so that our scientists can be competitive in the global market when it comes to publishing research at a faster pace. Second, we also want to promote Indian made laboratory products worldwide. India produces good quality lab products but we lack in marketing these products. Biomall aims to change that by producing an excellent marketing platform and making Indian made lab products available to laboratories worldwide.
Also, through Biomall, we have promoted many lesser known Indian manufacturers of laboratory equipment to the global market. Many countries including Africa, Middle East, Asia, Europe and America have shown interest in buying lab products from India. They find Biomall as one stop solution to get all of their laboratory needs from India, at good price and quality.
Q.: Who do You Perceive as Your Competition? How do you differentiate yourself with them? Ans: A few of its indirect competitors in India include B2B online portals like Indiamart, trade India which are widely used by sellers to generate leads. Other competitors include B2B e-commerce platforms like Industry buying & Amazon business who provide an online platform for buying all sort of industrial supplies. These sites are however not focused on the lab industry and do not have a wide range of products that Biomall offers. In India Biomall stands as the only comprehensive platform to target the lab professionals through its customized online eCommerce business model and acts as one point of contact for international buyers interested to source their supplies from India.
Q.: What would be your goal to accomplish in the next six months? Any other information you would like to share? Ans: We continue to expand our product portfolio and we learn a great deal from the customers to understand the products in demand and then lookout for quality suppliers for the same. We are very selective on the suppliers that come on-board and only when they pass our internal quality criteria do we invite them to be part of our platform. Our major focus in future is to increase the reach of Biomall in India and worldwide and provide a vast range of products that the scientists can purchase directly from the suppliers via our platform.
In the next 6 months, we plan to invest in logistics and marketing to increase our reach across different cities in India and outside India. To achieve our goals, we are looking for investors interested to fund a growing B2B online startup.
https://startupsuccessstories.in/this-mumbai-based-startup-brings-together-indias-lab-suppliers-on-one-platform/
submitted by karanhyd213 to u/karanhyd213 [link] [comments]


2019.11.30 18:25 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning December 2nd, 2019

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on wallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week and month ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning December 2nd, 2019.

Markets may get a boost from cheery Black Friday consumer sentiment, seasonal strength - (Source)

Stocks have had a bang-up year so far, and they’re heading straight into the month that is often the best of all.
The S&P 500 is up more than 25% for the year. Thanksgiving week was technically positive for the market, with the small cap Russell 2000 breaking out, joining other indexes in an uptrend.
Stocks, however, were lower Friday in sluggish trading after the Thanksgiving holiday. Through Wednesday, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 had all popped to new record highs, with consumer discretionary and tech names leading the market higher this past week. The Russell 2000 is not yet back to its highs, but it pushed above its previous 52-week high, in a healthy sign for the overall market.
In the coming week, investor focus will move more intently to the topic of trade, and that is what will make or break the rally at year-end.
President Donald Trump has promised that a preliminary trade deal with China is close, but there still is no agreement and the Dec.15 deadline for new tariffs is getting closer. Trump’s signing of legislation Wednesday supporting the Hong Kong protesters drew a negative reaction from Beijing and adds more uncertainty to trade talks.
The health of the economy is also a factor for markets, and there is some key data, with the ISM manufacturing report on Monday followed by the government’s all-important monthly jobs data on Friday.

Best month of year

2019 has turned out to be a very good year for the market, with the Jan. 1 to Thanksgiving Day period the 14th best for the S&P 500 since 1928, according to Bespoke. The 25.5% gain in the S&P 500 was the best for the period since 2013, and now the market enters a typically strong period.
“December is the best month of the year. The S&P is up 1.6 percent on average. It also has the highest frequency of advances, up 76% of the time,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. December is also the least volatile month of all, but it could see some bumps.
“The market tends to go through a mid-December low, which then represents a good buying opportunity, at least through the end of January,” Stovall said, adding he thinks the decline would be no more than 5%. “I don’t think we need a big pullback or a correction. A mid-single digit decline would be sufficient.”
Stovall said 2019 was set up to win because of the way the year started, following the sharp sell-off last December. When the months of January and February are higher, the S&P 500 has an average total return of 24%, according to data going back to 1945. If the following year does not see have a similar double gain in January and February, it still does fairly well with a normal average return of 8% to 9%, he said.
The market’s performance for the entire year also bodes well for a positive move into year-end, according to Bespoke. Since 1928, when stocks are up 20% or more by Thanksgiving, like this year, the S&P 500 usually ends the year even higher, with an average gain of 1.8% between Black Friday and New Year’s Eve, Bespoke noted.

S&P Sub-industry sector performance

Stovall also looked at sector performance for December, going back to 1995 and found that some of the worst performing S&P sub-industry sectors were retail oriented and are highly dependent on good holiday sales. On average, computer and electronics retailers were weakest, off 4.5%, followed by leisure products off 2.2% and department stores, off 0.9%. Specialty stores and apparel and luxury goods were also among the 10 poorest performers.
While 87% of the sub-industry sectors were positive, the top performer was homebuilding, up 4.5 %, followed by home improvement retail.
“You want to buy now what nobody wants to own,” said Stovall, noting the market is forward pricing so investors are looking ahead to building activity picking up in spring and summer when they dip into homebuilders. Companies that sell fertilizers also do well in December.
Stocks on Friday closed out their best monthly performance since June. The S&P 500 was up 3.4% to 3,140, and the Dow closed Friday at 28,051, up 3.7% for the month of November.
Technology was the best performing sector for the month, gaining 5.2%. That helped drive the Nasdaq up 4.5% for the month to 8,665.
Biotech was also a top performer, helping lift the Russell 2000, which gained 4% in November to 1,624. The IBB iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF was up 11% for the month.

Trade tensions

The big risk to the market in December is the outcome of trade talks, but economic reports will be important as investors continue to assess whether the Fed was right in ending its rate cuts.
The economy has shown some signs of picking up, and a string of improved data has led economists to look for better growth in the fourth quarter. But the critical driver of growth continues to be the consumer, so holiday sales will be an important indicator to watch.
Employment data remains the most important of the economic reports, since a strong labor market is crucial for consumer confidence and spending.
Economists expect the economy added 183,000 jobs in November, according to Refinitiv. The economy added 128,000 jobs in October, even with the negative drag of 46,000 striking GM workers and the reduction of 17,000 federal government jobs, due to the end of temporary employment for Census workers.
“For the employment report, we think one factor that is likely to result in a slightly stronger headline payroll number is the fact we will now count the GM workers that were on strike,” said Barclays economist Pooja Sriram. “We estimated 36,000 to 40,000 were left out of the report in October. We think they’re to be counted as part of the November report. Much of that is going to be seen in private payrolls and especially in manufacturing payrolls.”
In October, ISM manufacturing activity improved, and even though it remained in contraction, some economists said the slowdown may be showing signs of bottoming.
The ISM index is expected to be at 49.4, still shy of 50, which shows expansion, but better than October’s 48.3. “We still think it’s going to be a sub-50 print,” said Sriram.
October’s durable goods report showed a surprise gain in business investment when economists had expected to see contraction.
Sriram said the speed of decline in manufacturing has certainly slowed, and she is watching the data closely. “I don’t think we’re comfortable saying we bottomed,” she said.
OPEC and Russia hold meetings in Vienna on Thursday and Friday, and analysts expect them to extend their production cutting agreement. However, Russia may seek to change the rules for how it counts its petroleum output, so the meeting may not be as predictable as expected, some analysts say.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Next Week's Economic Indicators - 11/29/19

Even with a holiday and a shortened session Friday leaving no US releases in the past 48 hours, it was a very busy week for economic data with 36 releases in the first three days. Most of this data came in stronger than expected or above the prior reading where there were no forecasts. While the bulk of the week's data was strong, manufacturing data, namely from the regional Fed indices, was mixed. We started off with a weaker Chicago Fed National Activity Index on Monday. The index fell from -0.45 last month to -0.71 rather than the expected improvement to -0.2. The Dallas Fed's index was also out on Monday and it improved more than expected as well as versus the prior month. On Tuesday, the Richmond Fed's gauge on manufacturing was also worse than expected. On the bright side, other manufacturing hard data like durable goods came in much stronger than both the previous month and consensus forecasts. Housing data was also solid this week with better than anticipated home price growth shown in two of the three indicators: the quarterly Home Price Purchase Index, FHFA, and Case-Shiller (only the Case-Shiller index was weaker than expected, albeit up from the prior month). The second release of third-quarter GDP was the most notable indicator of the week with a much stronger than expected reading which showed the economy grew by 2.1% QoQ versus estimates of a 1.9% growth rate.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We kick off December with another busy few days next week. Final November Markit and ISM numbers will kick off the week on Monday. While Markit is not expecting any change from the preliminary readings, ISM is expected to improve to 49.2 which would still be a contractionary print. In hard manufacturing data, later in the week we will see final durable and capital goods numbers for November. Vehicle sales figures will be the only release on Tuesday followed by the service counterparts to Markit and ISM indices on Wednesday as the rest of the week's main focus will be on labor data. After a surprisingly strong release last month, Nonfarm Payrolls is again expecting a strong print showing 190K jobs created in the month of November.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Stocks To Be The Most Thankful For

Below is a list of the 25 best performing stocks in the S&P 500 so far in 2019. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) tops the list with a gain of more than 100%. While no other S&P 500 stocks have yet to double this year, another semi name, Lam Research (LRCX) has come close with a gain of 99%. Xerox (XRX), MarketAxess (MKTX), and Target (TGT) have also all risen more than 90%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Apple (AAPL) is the 19th best performing stock in the list above. But because of its trillion+ dollar market cap, Apple's (AAPL) 69% gain has a much bigger impact on the overall stock market than all of the other stocks that have seen a bigger price move this year. In fact, of the S&P 500's 25% price gain this year, Apple has accounted for 2.24 of those percentage points (or roughly 9%).
Instead of looking at simple year-to-date price change, below is a list of the stocks that investors should be most thankful for this year because of their contribution to the S&P's gains. Right behind Apple (AAPL) in first is the other trillion+ dollar company -- Microsoft (MSFT) -- which has accounted for 1.7 percentage points of the S&P's 25% gain. After AAPL and MSFT are Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN). Together these five mega-caps account for 25% of the S&P's move higher this year. While this group of companies has been vilified in 2019 for a number of things, they're certainly still delivering for the stock market in a big way.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P 500 Industry Group Breadth Running Strong

The S&P 500 may be hitting record highs at a pace of more than once every other day, but would you believe that there are still Industry Groups trading below their 50-day moving averages? The chart below shows the rolling percentage of Industry Groups trading above their 50-DMAs over the last several years, and the current reading stands at 91.7%. Over the last five years there have been numerous periods where a higher percentage (and even 100%) of Industry Groups traded above their 50-DMAs, and the most recent was back in July.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So which are the two outlier groups that are still below their 50-DMAs? Well, when everyone seems to be taking an offensive posture in the market, it's only natural that defensive sectors would be lagging, and two of the most defensive-oriented sectors in this yield-hungry world we live in are Utilities and Real Estate. Even these two groups, though, are only about 1% below their 50-DMAs, so all it will take is one or two good days for these groups to get them back over the hump. On the upside, Health Care Equipment & Services is the furthest above its 50-DMA at 7.72%.
The S&P 500 as a whole is currently just over 4% above its 50-DMA. What's interesting to note here, though, is that just 9 of the 24 Industry Groups are further above their 50-DMAs while 15 are not above their 50-DMAs by as much as the S&P 500. In terms of YTD returns, the S&P 500 is currently sitting on a gain of more than 25% YTD. Leading the way higher this year, Tech Hardware (Apple) has rallied just under 48%, while Semis are up just over 40%. Behind these two leaders, four other Industry Groups are up over 30% YTD. While there is no downside on a YTD basis, Energy has been the biggest laggard and is just barely hanging on to a YTD gain. If Energy can't hang onto a YTD gain in a year where the S&P 500 gains more than 25%, Energy investors may need to wear paper bags over their heads.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Technology Sector P/E Highest in Ten Years

As equities run to all-time highs, valuations are at a fairly interesting point. As shown in the chart below using data from our Daily Sector Snapshot included with our Morning Lineup and The Closer, most sectors' valuations are at the upper end of the past ten years' range. Four sectors, Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Utilities, and Technology all have trailing P/E ratios in the 90th percentile or higher of the past ten years' readings.
Since the S&P 500 established its first all-time high since July on October 28th, Health Care and Financials have been two of the strongest performers rising 6.68% and 4.35%, respectively. Despite these runs, both of these sectors still have reasonable valuations relative to the past decade. For Financials, the current trailing price-to-earnings ratio is in the 42nd percentile of all days of the past ten years. No other sector has such a low reading although Materials and Energy are on the lower end relative to other sectors. On the other hand, Utilities and Technology have some of the highest valuations of the past ten years with the current P/E in the 97th and 99th percentiles, respectively.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As shown in the chart below, most of the last 9-12 months has seen valuations for Utilities consistently in the uppermost range of the past ten years as investors chased yield in a low interest rate environment. But as risk-free rates have risen more recently, valuations for Utilities have pulled back a bit as price has slid. While there have been other periods in the past ten years where Utilities' P/E ratio was similarly elevated, arguably only 2016/2017 saw it remain at the upper end of the ten-year range as consistently as has been the case this year.
For Technology it is a whole different story. The P/E for the sector got crushed this time last year and after plummeting to the 31st percentile, it is has rebounded to the highest levels of the past ten years. The only other time that the sector traded at a similar premium relative to the past decade's range was back in early 2018.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Thanksgiving through Santa Claus Rally Trade

Everyone is talking about yearend seasonal strength this year, but it’s not news to us. 2019 has been tracking historical seasonal market patterns quite closely this year and that suggests it is likely to continue to track it.
Our good friend Larry McMillan (@optstrategist) trades seasonal yearend strength with the Russell 2000 from the close the day before Thanksgiving through the end of our Santa Claus Rally (the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year).
So here we have run the numbers from 1979 when the Russell index data begins comparing R2K to the DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ. The small-cap index Russell 2000 is the best performer up an average 3.1% (median 3.2%) with an 80% win ratio up 32 of the last 40 years. Last year was the worst and it’s been down 3 of the last 5 years.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Giving Thanks for the U.S. Consumer

This Thanksgiving, we’re thankful for solid consumer confidence, even though it has wavered in recent months.
Consumer confidence fell for a fourth straight month in November, according to preliminary Conference Board data. Even though the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index has dropped from its economic cycle peak, consumer sentiment is still historically elevated, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve been pleasantly surprised by the U.S. consumer’s resilience over the past year as other parts of the domestic economy have weakened amid global headwinds. Strong consumer spending has helped the economy grow at a 2% average rate over the past two quarters, despite drags on growth from business spending, inventories, and trade.
“Consumer sentiment has been largely immune from global headwinds,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “We expect consumer spending to power economic growth through next year, so we’d like to see consumer confidence pick up more with signs of trade progress.”
Consumers have several reasons to be optimistic. Employment is the primary driver of consumer health, and the U.S. labor market has been resilient. Wages are growing at a healthy rate, and consumers are reaping the benefits of tax cuts and record-high stock prices. As long as the job market stays solid and inflation remains in check, we feel good about consumers’ prospects.
Still, there are growing signs of concern. While survey respondents have remained optimistic about present conditions, their outlook on future conditions has soured, according to the Conference Board. If consumers are feeling less confident about the future, they may be less inclined to spend and invest. That loss of confidence in the outlook could lead to economic weakness over time if consumers step back.
Overall, we would need to see more significant deterioration in consumer confidence before we would start to worry about the economic outlook.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending November 29th, 2019

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 12.1.19

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $CRM
  • $DG
  • $ULTA
  • $COUP
  • $MRVL
  • $WDAY
  • $ZS
  • $RH
  • $OKTA
  • $TIF
  • $CRWD
  • $KR
  • $CLDR
  • $DSX
  • $WORK
  • $BMO
  • $ZM
  • $CPB
  • $FIVE
  • $QTT
  • $DOCU
  • $MIK
  • $TD
  • $YJ
  • $LE
  • $AVAV
  • $RY
  • $SNPS
  • $HQY
  • $DCI
  • $BIG
  • $GSM
  • $SIG
  • $SMAR
  • $GIII
  • $HOME
  • $HRB
  • $DLTH
  • $TLYS
  • $ZUO
  • $GEF
  • $JW.A
  • $GMS
  • $EXPR
  • $ZUMZ
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST ANTICIPATED EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 5 WEEKS!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 12.2.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 12.2.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 12.3.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 12.3.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 12.4.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 12.4.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 12.5.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 12.5.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 12.6.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 12.6.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Salesforce $162.89

Salesforce (CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, December 3, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.66 per share on revenue of $4.44 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.69 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.65 to $0.66 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.20% with revenue increasing by 30.90%. Short interest has decreased by 48.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.4% above its 200 day moving average of $154.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, November 25, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,252 contracts of the $162.50 call expiring on Friday, December 6, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Dollar General Corporation $157.36

Dollar General Corporation (DG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Thursday, December 5, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.38 per share on revenue of $6.91 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.39 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.52% with revenue increasing by 7.67%. Short interest has decreased by 1.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.0% above its 200 day moving average of $138.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 27, 2019 there was some notable buying of 574 contracts of the $100.00 put expiring on Friday, December 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

ULTA Beauty $233.86

ULTA Beauty (ULTA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, December 5, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.14 per share on revenue of $1.69 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.17 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.83% with revenue increasing by 8.33%. Short interest has increased by 1.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.5% below its 200 day moving average of $305.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 22, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,992 contracts of the $200.00 put expiring on Friday, January 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Coupa Software $153.49

Coupa Software (COUP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, December 2, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.06 per share on revenue of $96.50 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.05 to $0.08 per share on revenue of $96.00 million to $96.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 53.85% with revenue increasing by 43.06%. Short interest has increased by 74.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 26.1% above its 200 day moving average of $121.76. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 29, 2019 there was some notable buying of 679 contracts of the $172.50 call expiring on Friday, December 6, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 9.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Marvell Technology Group Ltd. $26.37

Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (MRVL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, December 3, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.17 per share on revenue of $660.23 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.15 to $0.19 per share on revenue of $640.00 million to $680.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 55.26% with revenue decreasing by 22.42%. Short interest has increased by 25.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.5% above its 200 day moving average of $24.08. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 15, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,289 contracts of the $29.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Workday, Inc. $179.12

Workday, Inc. (WDAY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, December 3, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.37 per share on revenue of $918.63 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.40 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $918.00 million to $920.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 640.00% with revenue increasing by 23.61%. Short interest has increased by 5.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.1% below its 200 day moving average of $188.76. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, November 18, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,895 contracts of the $160.00 put expiring on Friday, December 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 26.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Zscaler, Inc. $52.13

Zscaler, Inc. (ZS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, December 3, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.01 per share on revenue of $89.34 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.03 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for results to range from breakeven to earnings of $0.01 per share on revenue of $89.00 million to $90.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 200.00% with revenue increasing by 41.14%. Short interest has increased by 110.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 18.7% below its 200 day moving average of $64.13. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,720 contracts of the $47.00 call expiring on Friday, January 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 14.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 15.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

RH $205.59

RH (RH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Wednesday, December 4, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.21 per share on revenue of $675.57 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 27.75% with revenue increasing by 6.13%. Short interest has increased by 14.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 32.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 49.3% above its 200 day moving average of $137.69. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 13.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Okta, Inc. $129.78

Okta, Inc. (OKTA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, December 5, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.12 per share on revenue of $143.45 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.10) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.13 to $0.12 per share on revenue of $143.00 million to $144.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 220.00% with revenue increasing by 35.87%. Short interest has increased by 25.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.2% above its 200 day moving average of $110.74. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 27, 2019 there was some notable buying of 549 contracts of the $170.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Tiffany & Co. $133.80

Tiffany & Co. (TIF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:40 AM ET on Thursday, December 5, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.85 per share on revenue of $1.04 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 10.39% with revenue increasing by 2.73%. Short interest has decreased by 38.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 69.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.1% above its 200 day moving average of $98.28. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, November 14, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,427 contracts of the $100.00 put expiring on Friday, February 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 0.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead wallstreetbets.
submitted by bigbear0083 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]


2019.11.30 18:24 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning December 2nd, 2019

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week and month ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning December 2nd, 2019.

Markets may get a boost from cheery Black Friday consumer sentiment, seasonal strength - (Source)

Stocks have had a bang-up year so far, and they’re heading straight into the month that is often the best of all.
The S&P 500 is up more than 25% for the year. Thanksgiving week was technically positive for the market, with the small cap Russell 2000 breaking out, joining other indexes in an uptrend.
Stocks, however, were lower Friday in sluggish trading after the Thanksgiving holiday. Through Wednesday, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 had all popped to new record highs, with consumer discretionary and tech names leading the market higher this past week. The Russell 2000 is not yet back to its highs, but it pushed above its previous 52-week high, in a healthy sign for the overall market.
In the coming week, investor focus will move more intently to the topic of trade, and that is what will make or break the rally at year-end.
President Donald Trump has promised that a preliminary trade deal with China is close, but there still is no agreement and the Dec.15 deadline for new tariffs is getting closer. Trump’s signing of legislation Wednesday supporting the Hong Kong protesters drew a negative reaction from Beijing and adds more uncertainty to trade talks.
The health of the economy is also a factor for markets, and there is some key data, with the ISM manufacturing report on Monday followed by the government’s all-important monthly jobs data on Friday.

Best month of year

2019 has turned out to be a very good year for the market, with the Jan. 1 to Thanksgiving Day period the 14th best for the S&P 500 since 1928, according to Bespoke. The 25.5% gain in the S&P 500 was the best for the period since 2013, and now the market enters a typically strong period.
“December is the best month of the year. The S&P is up 1.6 percent on average. It also has the highest frequency of advances, up 76% of the time,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. December is also the least volatile month of all, but it could see some bumps.
“The market tends to go through a mid-December low, which then represents a good buying opportunity, at least through the end of January,” Stovall said, adding he thinks the decline would be no more than 5%. “I don’t think we need a big pullback or a correction. A mid-single digit decline would be sufficient.”
Stovall said 2019 was set up to win because of the way the year started, following the sharp sell-off last December. When the months of January and February are higher, the S&P 500 has an average total return of 24%, according to data going back to 1945. If the following year does not see have a similar double gain in January and February, it still does fairly well with a normal average return of 8% to 9%, he said.
The market’s performance for the entire year also bodes well for a positive move into year-end, according to Bespoke. Since 1928, when stocks are up 20% or more by Thanksgiving, like this year, the S&P 500 usually ends the year even higher, with an average gain of 1.8% between Black Friday and New Year’s Eve, Bespoke noted.

S&P Sub-industry sector performance

Stovall also looked at sector performance for December, going back to 1995 and found that some of the worst performing S&P sub-industry sectors were retail oriented and are highly dependent on good holiday sales. On average, computer and electronics retailers were weakest, off 4.5%, followed by leisure products off 2.2% and department stores, off 0.9%. Specialty stores and apparel and luxury goods were also among the 10 poorest performers.
While 87% of the sub-industry sectors were positive, the top performer was homebuilding, up 4.5 %, followed by home improvement retail.
“You want to buy now what nobody wants to own,” said Stovall, noting the market is forward pricing so investors are looking ahead to building activity picking up in spring and summer when they dip into homebuilders. Companies that sell fertilizers also do well in December.
Stocks on Friday closed out their best monthly performance since June. The S&P 500 was up 3.4% to 3,140, and the Dow closed Friday at 28,051, up 3.7% for the month of November.
Technology was the best performing sector for the month, gaining 5.2%. That helped drive the Nasdaq up 4.5% for the month to 8,665.
Biotech was also a top performer, helping lift the Russell 2000, which gained 4% in November to 1,624. The IBB iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF was up 11% for the month.

Trade tensions

The big risk to the market in December is the outcome of trade talks, but economic reports will be important as investors continue to assess whether the Fed was right in ending its rate cuts.
The economy has shown some signs of picking up, and a string of improved data has led economists to look for better growth in the fourth quarter. But the critical driver of growth continues to be the consumer, so holiday sales will be an important indicator to watch.
Employment data remains the most important of the economic reports, since a strong labor market is crucial for consumer confidence and spending.
Economists expect the economy added 183,000 jobs in November, according to Refinitiv. The economy added 128,000 jobs in October, even with the negative drag of 46,000 striking GM workers and the reduction of 17,000 federal government jobs, due to the end of temporary employment for Census workers.
“For the employment report, we think one factor that is likely to result in a slightly stronger headline payroll number is the fact we will now count the GM workers that were on strike,” said Barclays economist Pooja Sriram. “We estimated 36,000 to 40,000 were left out of the report in October. We think they’re to be counted as part of the November report. Much of that is going to be seen in private payrolls and especially in manufacturing payrolls.”
In October, ISM manufacturing activity improved, and even though it remained in contraction, some economists said the slowdown may be showing signs of bottoming.
The ISM index is expected to be at 49.4, still shy of 50, which shows expansion, but better than October’s 48.3. “We still think it’s going to be a sub-50 print,” said Sriram.
October’s durable goods report showed a surprise gain in business investment when economists had expected to see contraction.
Sriram said the speed of decline in manufacturing has certainly slowed, and she is watching the data closely. “I don’t think we’re comfortable saying we bottomed,” she said.
OPEC and Russia hold meetings in Vienna on Thursday and Friday, and analysts expect them to extend their production cutting agreement. However, Russia may seek to change the rules for how it counts its petroleum output, so the meeting may not be as predictable as expected, some analysts say.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Next Week's Economic Indicators - 11/29/19

Even with a holiday and a shortened session Friday leaving no US releases in the past 48 hours, it was a very busy week for economic data with 36 releases in the first three days. Most of this data came in stronger than expected or above the prior reading where there were no forecasts. While the bulk of the week's data was strong, manufacturing data, namely from the regional Fed indices, was mixed. We started off with a weaker Chicago Fed National Activity Index on Monday. The index fell from -0.45 last month to -0.71 rather than the expected improvement to -0.2. The Dallas Fed's index was also out on Monday and it improved more than expected as well as versus the prior month. On Tuesday, the Richmond Fed's gauge on manufacturing was also worse than expected. On the bright side, other manufacturing hard data like durable goods came in much stronger than both the previous month and consensus forecasts. Housing data was also solid this week with better than anticipated home price growth shown in two of the three indicators: the quarterly Home Price Purchase Index, FHFA, and Case-Shiller (only the Case-Shiller index was weaker than expected, albeit up from the prior month). The second release of third-quarter GDP was the most notable indicator of the week with a much stronger than expected reading which showed the economy grew by 2.1% QoQ versus estimates of a 1.9% growth rate.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We kick off December with another busy few days next week. Final November Markit and ISM numbers will kick off the week on Monday. While Markit is not expecting any change from the preliminary readings, ISM is expected to improve to 49.2 which would still be a contractionary print. In hard manufacturing data, later in the week we will see final durable and capital goods numbers for November. Vehicle sales figures will be the only release on Tuesday followed by the service counterparts to Markit and ISM indices on Wednesday as the rest of the week's main focus will be on labor data. After a surprisingly strong release last month, Nonfarm Payrolls is again expecting a strong print showing 190K jobs created in the month of November.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Stocks To Be The Most Thankful For

Below is a list of the 25 best performing stocks in the S&P 500 so far in 2019. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) tops the list with a gain of more than 100%. While no other S&P 500 stocks have yet to double this year, another semi name, Lam Research (LRCX) has come close with a gain of 99%. Xerox (XRX), MarketAxess (MKTX), and Target (TGT) have also all risen more than 90%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Apple (AAPL) is the 19th best performing stock in the list above. But because of its trillion+ dollar market cap, Apple's (AAPL) 69% gain has a much bigger impact on the overall stock market than all of the other stocks that have seen a bigger price move this year. In fact, of the S&P 500's 25% price gain this year, Apple has accounted for 2.24 of those percentage points (or roughly 9%).
Instead of looking at simple year-to-date price change, below is a list of the stocks that investors should be most thankful for this year because of their contribution to the S&P's gains. Right behind Apple (AAPL) in first is the other trillion+ dollar company -- Microsoft (MSFT) -- which has accounted for 1.7 percentage points of the S&P's 25% gain. After AAPL and MSFT are Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN). Together these five mega-caps account for 25% of the S&P's move higher this year. While this group of companies has been vilified in 2019 for a number of things, they're certainly still delivering for the stock market in a big way.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P 500 Industry Group Breadth Running Strong

The S&P 500 may be hitting record highs at a pace of more than once every other day, but would you believe that there are still Industry Groups trading below their 50-day moving averages? The chart below shows the rolling percentage of Industry Groups trading above their 50-DMAs over the last several years, and the current reading stands at 91.7%. Over the last five years there have been numerous periods where a higher percentage (and even 100%) of Industry Groups traded above their 50-DMAs, and the most recent was back in July.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So which are the two outlier groups that are still below their 50-DMAs? Well, when everyone seems to be taking an offensive posture in the market, it's only natural that defensive sectors would be lagging, and two of the most defensive-oriented sectors in this yield-hungry world we live in are Utilities and Real Estate. Even these two groups, though, are only about 1% below their 50-DMAs, so all it will take is one or two good days for these groups to get them back over the hump. On the upside, Health Care Equipment & Services is the furthest above its 50-DMA at 7.72%.
The S&P 500 as a whole is currently just over 4% above its 50-DMA. What's interesting to note here, though, is that just 9 of the 24 Industry Groups are further above their 50-DMAs while 15 are not above their 50-DMAs by as much as the S&P 500. In terms of YTD returns, the S&P 500 is currently sitting on a gain of more than 25% YTD. Leading the way higher this year, Tech Hardware (Apple) has rallied just under 48%, while Semis are up just over 40%. Behind these two leaders, four other Industry Groups are up over 30% YTD. While there is no downside on a YTD basis, Energy has been the biggest laggard and is just barely hanging on to a YTD gain. If Energy can't hang onto a YTD gain in a year where the S&P 500 gains more than 25%, Energy investors may need to wear paper bags over their heads.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Technology Sector P/E Highest in Ten Years

As equities run to all-time highs, valuations are at a fairly interesting point. As shown in the chart below using data from our Daily Sector Snapshot included with our Morning Lineup and The Closer, most sectors' valuations are at the upper end of the past ten years' range. Four sectors, Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Utilities, and Technology all have trailing P/E ratios in the 90th percentile or higher of the past ten years' readings.
Since the S&P 500 established its first all-time high since July on October 28th, Health Care and Financials have been two of the strongest performers rising 6.68% and 4.35%, respectively. Despite these runs, both of these sectors still have reasonable valuations relative to the past decade. For Financials, the current trailing price-to-earnings ratio is in the 42nd percentile of all days of the past ten years. No other sector has such a low reading although Materials and Energy are on the lower end relative to other sectors. On the other hand, Utilities and Technology have some of the highest valuations of the past ten years with the current P/E in the 97th and 99th percentiles, respectively.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As shown in the chart below, most of the last 9-12 months has seen valuations for Utilities consistently in the uppermost range of the past ten years as investors chased yield in a low interest rate environment. But as risk-free rates have risen more recently, valuations for Utilities have pulled back a bit as price has slid. While there have been other periods in the past ten years where Utilities' P/E ratio was similarly elevated, arguably only 2016/2017 saw it remain at the upper end of the ten-year range as consistently as has been the case this year.
For Technology it is a whole different story. The P/E for the sector got crushed this time last year and after plummeting to the 31st percentile, it is has rebounded to the highest levels of the past ten years. The only other time that the sector traded at a similar premium relative to the past decade's range was back in early 2018.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Thanksgiving through Santa Claus Rally Trade

Everyone is talking about yearend seasonal strength this year, but it’s not news to us. 2019 has been tracking historical seasonal market patterns quite closely this year and that suggests it is likely to continue to track it.
Our good friend Larry McMillan (@optstrategist) trades seasonal yearend strength with the Russell 2000 from the close the day before Thanksgiving through the end of our Santa Claus Rally (the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year).
So here we have run the numbers from 1979 when the Russell index data begins comparing R2K to the DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ. The small-cap index Russell 2000 is the best performer up an average 3.1% (median 3.2%) with an 80% win ratio up 32 of the last 40 years. Last year was the worst and it’s been down 3 of the last 5 years.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Giving Thanks for the U.S. Consumer

This Thanksgiving, we’re thankful for solid consumer confidence, even though it has wavered in recent months.
Consumer confidence fell for a fourth straight month in November, according to preliminary Conference Board data. Even though the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index has dropped from its economic cycle peak, consumer sentiment is still historically elevated, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve been pleasantly surprised by the U.S. consumer’s resilience over the past year as other parts of the domestic economy have weakened amid global headwinds. Strong consumer spending has helped the economy grow at a 2% average rate over the past two quarters, despite drags on growth from business spending, inventories, and trade.
“Consumer sentiment has been largely immune from global headwinds,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “We expect consumer spending to power economic growth through next year, so we’d like to see consumer confidence pick up more with signs of trade progress.”
Consumers have several reasons to be optimistic. Employment is the primary driver of consumer health, and the U.S. labor market has been resilient. Wages are growing at a healthy rate, and consumers are reaping the benefits of tax cuts and record-high stock prices. As long as the job market stays solid and inflation remains in check, we feel good about consumers’ prospects.
Still, there are growing signs of concern. While survey respondents have remained optimistic about present conditions, their outlook on future conditions has soured, according to the Conference Board. If consumers are feeling less confident about the future, they may be less inclined to spend and invest. That loss of confidence in the outlook could lead to economic weakness over time if consumers step back.
Overall, we would need to see more significant deterioration in consumer confidence before we would start to worry about the economic outlook.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending November 29th, 2019

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 12.1.19

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Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $CRM
  • $DG
  • $ULTA
  • $COUP
  • $MRVL
  • $WDAY
  • $ZS
  • $RH
  • $OKTA
  • $TIF
  • $CRWD
  • $KR
  • $CLDR
  • $DSX
  • $WORK
  • $BMO
  • $ZM
  • $CPB
  • $FIVE
  • $QTT
  • $DOCU
  • $MIK
  • $TD
  • $YJ
  • $LE
  • $AVAV
  • $RY
  • $SNPS
  • $HQY
  • $DCI
  • $BIG
  • $GSM
  • $SIG
  • $SMAR
  • $GIII
  • $HOME
  • $HRB
  • $DLTH
  • $TLYS
  • $ZUO
  • $GEF
  • $JW.A
  • $GMS
  • $EXPR
  • $ZUMZ
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST ANTICIPATED EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 5 WEEKS!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 12.2.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 12.2.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 12.3.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 12.3.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 12.4.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 12.4.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 12.5.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 12.5.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 12.6.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 12.6.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Salesforce $162.89

Salesforce (CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, December 3, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.66 per share on revenue of $4.44 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.69 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.65 to $0.66 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.20% with revenue increasing by 30.90%. Short interest has decreased by 48.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.4% above its 200 day moving average of $154.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, November 25, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,252 contracts of the $162.50 call expiring on Friday, December 6, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Dollar General Corporation $157.36

Dollar General Corporation (DG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Thursday, December 5, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.38 per share on revenue of $6.91 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.39 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.52% with revenue increasing by 7.67%. Short interest has decreased by 1.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.0% above its 200 day moving average of $138.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 27, 2019 there was some notable buying of 574 contracts of the $100.00 put expiring on Friday, December 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

ULTA Beauty $233.86

ULTA Beauty (ULTA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, December 5, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.14 per share on revenue of $1.69 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.17 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.83% with revenue increasing by 8.33%. Short interest has increased by 1.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.5% below its 200 day moving average of $305.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 22, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,992 contracts of the $200.00 put expiring on Friday, January 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Coupa Software $153.49

Coupa Software (COUP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, December 2, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.06 per share on revenue of $96.50 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.05 to $0.08 per share on revenue of $96.00 million to $96.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 53.85% with revenue increasing by 43.06%. Short interest has increased by 74.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 26.1% above its 200 day moving average of $121.76. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 29, 2019 there was some notable buying of 679 contracts of the $172.50 call expiring on Friday, December 6, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 9.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Marvell Technology Group Ltd. $26.37

Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (MRVL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, December 3, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.17 per share on revenue of $660.23 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.15 to $0.19 per share on revenue of $640.00 million to $680.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 55.26% with revenue decreasing by 22.42%. Short interest has increased by 25.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.5% above its 200 day moving average of $24.08. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 15, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,289 contracts of the $29.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Workday, Inc. $179.12

Workday, Inc. (WDAY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, December 3, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.37 per share on revenue of $918.63 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.40 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $918.00 million to $920.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 640.00% with revenue increasing by 23.61%. Short interest has increased by 5.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.1% below its 200 day moving average of $188.76. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, November 18, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,895 contracts of the $160.00 put expiring on Friday, December 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 26.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Zscaler, Inc. $52.13

Zscaler, Inc. (ZS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, December 3, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.01 per share on revenue of $89.34 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.03 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for results to range from breakeven to earnings of $0.01 per share on revenue of $89.00 million to $90.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 200.00% with revenue increasing by 41.14%. Short interest has increased by 110.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 18.7% below its 200 day moving average of $64.13. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,720 contracts of the $47.00 call expiring on Friday, January 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 14.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 15.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

RH $205.59

RH (RH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Wednesday, December 4, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.21 per share on revenue of $675.57 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 27.75% with revenue increasing by 6.13%. Short interest has increased by 14.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 32.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 49.3% above its 200 day moving average of $137.69. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 13.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Okta, Inc. $129.78

Okta, Inc. (OKTA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, December 5, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.12 per share on revenue of $143.45 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.10) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.13 to $0.12 per share on revenue of $143.00 million to $144.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 220.00% with revenue increasing by 35.87%. Short interest has increased by 25.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.2% above its 200 day moving average of $110.74. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 27, 2019 there was some notable buying of 549 contracts of the $170.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Tiffany & Co. $133.80

Tiffany & Co. (TIF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:40 AM ET on Thursday, December 5, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.85 per share on revenue of $1.04 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 10.39% with revenue increasing by 2.73%. Short interest has decreased by 38.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 69.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.1% above its 200 day moving average of $98.28. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, November 14, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,427 contracts of the $100.00 put expiring on Friday, February 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 0.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead stocks.
submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]


2019.11.30 18:21 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning December 2nd, 2019

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week and month ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning December 2nd, 2019.

Markets may get a boost from cheery Black Friday consumer sentiment, seasonal strength - (Source)

Stocks have had a bang-up year so far, and they’re heading straight into the month that is often the best of all.
The S&P 500 is up more than 25% for the year. Thanksgiving week was technically positive for the market, with the small cap Russell 2000 breaking out, joining other indexes in an uptrend.
Stocks, however, were lower Friday in sluggish trading after the Thanksgiving holiday. Through Wednesday, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 had all popped to new record highs, with consumer discretionary and tech names leading the market higher this past week. The Russell 2000 is not yet back to its highs, but it pushed above its previous 52-week high, in a healthy sign for the overall market.
In the coming week, investor focus will move more intently to the topic of trade, and that is what will make or break the rally at year-end.
President Donald Trump has promised that a preliminary trade deal with China is close, but there still is no agreement and the Dec.15 deadline for new tariffs is getting closer. Trump’s signing of legislation Wednesday supporting the Hong Kong protesters drew a negative reaction from Beijing and adds more uncertainty to trade talks.
The health of the economy is also a factor for markets, and there is some key data, with the ISM manufacturing report on Monday followed by the government’s all-important monthly jobs data on Friday.

Best month of year

2019 has turned out to be a very good year for the market, with the Jan. 1 to Thanksgiving Day period the 14th best for the S&P 500 since 1928, according to Bespoke. The 25.5% gain in the S&P 500 was the best for the period since 2013, and now the market enters a typically strong period.
“December is the best month of the year. The S&P is up 1.6 percent on average. It also has the highest frequency of advances, up 76% of the time,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. December is also the least volatile month of all, but it could see some bumps.
“The market tends to go through a mid-December low, which then represents a good buying opportunity, at least through the end of January,” Stovall said, adding he thinks the decline would be no more than 5%. “I don’t think we need a big pullback or a correction. A mid-single digit decline would be sufficient.”
Stovall said 2019 was set up to win because of the way the year started, following the sharp sell-off last December. When the months of January and February are higher, the S&P 500 has an average total return of 24%, according to data going back to 1945. If the following year does not see have a similar double gain in January and February, it still does fairly well with a normal average return of 8% to 9%, he said.
The market’s performance for the entire year also bodes well for a positive move into year-end, according to Bespoke. Since 1928, when stocks are up 20% or more by Thanksgiving, like this year, the S&P 500 usually ends the year even higher, with an average gain of 1.8% between Black Friday and New Year’s Eve, Bespoke noted.

S&P Sub-industry sector performance

Stovall also looked at sector performance for December, going back to 1995 and found that some of the worst performing S&P sub-industry sectors were retail oriented and are highly dependent on good holiday sales. On average, computer and electronics retailers were weakest, off 4.5%, followed by leisure products off 2.2% and department stores, off 0.9%. Specialty stores and apparel and luxury goods were also among the 10 poorest performers.
While 87% of the sub-industry sectors were positive, the top performer was homebuilding, up 4.5 %, followed by home improvement retail.
“You want to buy now what nobody wants to own,” said Stovall, noting the market is forward pricing so investors are looking ahead to building activity picking up in spring and summer when they dip into homebuilders. Companies that sell fertilizers also do well in December.
Stocks on Friday closed out their best monthly performance since June. The S&P 500 was up 3.4% to 3,140, and the Dow closed Friday at 28,051, up 3.7% for the month of November.
Technology was the best performing sector for the month, gaining 5.2%. That helped drive the Nasdaq up 4.5% for the month to 8,665.
Biotech was also a top performer, helping lift the Russell 2000, which gained 4% in November to 1,624. The IBB iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF was up 11% for the month.

Trade tensions

The big risk to the market in December is the outcome of trade talks, but economic reports will be important as investors continue to assess whether the Fed was right in ending its rate cuts.
The economy has shown some signs of picking up, and a string of improved data has led economists to look for better growth in the fourth quarter. But the critical driver of growth continues to be the consumer, so holiday sales will be an important indicator to watch.
Employment data remains the most important of the economic reports, since a strong labor market is crucial for consumer confidence and spending.
Economists expect the economy added 183,000 jobs in November, according to Refinitiv. The economy added 128,000 jobs in October, even with the negative drag of 46,000 striking GM workers and the reduction of 17,000 federal government jobs, due to the end of temporary employment for Census workers.
“For the employment report, we think one factor that is likely to result in a slightly stronger headline payroll number is the fact we will now count the GM workers that were on strike,” said Barclays economist Pooja Sriram. “We estimated 36,000 to 40,000 were left out of the report in October. We think they’re to be counted as part of the November report. Much of that is going to be seen in private payrolls and especially in manufacturing payrolls.”
In October, ISM manufacturing activity improved, and even though it remained in contraction, some economists said the slowdown may be showing signs of bottoming.
The ISM index is expected to be at 49.4, still shy of 50, which shows expansion, but better than October’s 48.3. “We still think it’s going to be a sub-50 print,” said Sriram.
October’s durable goods report showed a surprise gain in business investment when economists had expected to see contraction.
Sriram said the speed of decline in manufacturing has certainly slowed, and she is watching the data closely. “I don’t think we’re comfortable saying we bottomed,” she said.
OPEC and Russia hold meetings in Vienna on Thursday and Friday, and analysts expect them to extend their production cutting agreement. However, Russia may seek to change the rules for how it counts its petroleum output, so the meeting may not be as predictable as expected, some analysts say.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Next Week's Economic Indicators - 11/29/19

Even with a holiday and a shortened session Friday leaving no US releases in the past 48 hours, it was a very busy week for economic data with 36 releases in the first three days. Most of this data came in stronger than expected or above the prior reading where there were no forecasts. While the bulk of the week's data was strong, manufacturing data, namely from the regional Fed indices, was mixed. We started off with a weaker Chicago Fed National Activity Index on Monday. The index fell from -0.45 last month to -0.71 rather than the expected improvement to -0.2. The Dallas Fed's index was also out on Monday and it improved more than expected as well as versus the prior month. On Tuesday, the Richmond Fed's gauge on manufacturing was also worse than expected. On the bright side, other manufacturing hard data like durable goods came in much stronger than both the previous month and consensus forecasts. Housing data was also solid this week with better than anticipated home price growth shown in two of the three indicators: the quarterly Home Price Purchase Index, FHFA, and Case-Shiller (only the Case-Shiller index was weaker than expected, albeit up from the prior month). The second release of third-quarter GDP was the most notable indicator of the week with a much stronger than expected reading which showed the economy grew by 2.1% QoQ versus estimates of a 1.9% growth rate.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We kick off December with another busy few days next week. Final November Markit and ISM numbers will kick off the week on Monday. While Markit is not expecting any change from the preliminary readings, ISM is expected to improve to 49.2 which would still be a contractionary print. In hard manufacturing data, later in the week we will see final durable and capital goods numbers for November. Vehicle sales figures will be the only release on Tuesday followed by the service counterparts to Markit and ISM indices on Wednesday as the rest of the week's main focus will be on labor data. After a surprisingly strong release last month, Nonfarm Payrolls is again expecting a strong print showing 190K jobs created in the month of November.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Stocks To Be The Most Thankful For

Below is a list of the 25 best performing stocks in the S&P 500 so far in 2019. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) tops the list with a gain of more than 100%. While no other S&P 500 stocks have yet to double this year, another semi name, Lam Research (LRCX) has come close with a gain of 99%. Xerox (XRX), MarketAxess (MKTX), and Target (TGT) have also all risen more than 90%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Apple (AAPL) is the 19th best performing stock in the list above. But because of its trillion+ dollar market cap, Apple's (AAPL) 69% gain has a much bigger impact on the overall stock market than all of the other stocks that have seen a bigger price move this year. In fact, of the S&P 500's 25% price gain this year, Apple has accounted for 2.24 of those percentage points (or roughly 9%).
Instead of looking at simple year-to-date price change, below is a list of the stocks that investors should be most thankful for this year because of their contribution to the S&P's gains. Right behind Apple (AAPL) in first is the other trillion+ dollar company -- Microsoft (MSFT) -- which has accounted for 1.7 percentage points of the S&P's 25% gain. After AAPL and MSFT are Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN). Together these five mega-caps account for 25% of the S&P's move higher this year. While this group of companies has been vilified in 2019 for a number of things, they're certainly still delivering for the stock market in a big way.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P 500 Industry Group Breadth Running Strong

The S&P 500 may be hitting record highs at a pace of more than once every other day, but would you believe that there are still Industry Groups trading below their 50-day moving averages? The chart below shows the rolling percentage of Industry Groups trading above their 50-DMAs over the last several years, and the current reading stands at 91.7%. Over the last five years there have been numerous periods where a higher percentage (and even 100%) of Industry Groups traded above their 50-DMAs, and the most recent was back in July.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So which are the two outlier groups that are still below their 50-DMAs? Well, when everyone seems to be taking an offensive posture in the market, it's only natural that defensive sectors would be lagging, and two of the most defensive-oriented sectors in this yield-hungry world we live in are Utilities and Real Estate. Even these two groups, though, are only about 1% below their 50-DMAs, so all it will take is one or two good days for these groups to get them back over the hump. On the upside, Health Care Equipment & Services is the furthest above its 50-DMA at 7.72%.
The S&P 500 as a whole is currently just over 4% above its 50-DMA. What's interesting to note here, though, is that just 9 of the 24 Industry Groups are further above their 50-DMAs while 15 are not above their 50-DMAs by as much as the S&P 500. In terms of YTD returns, the S&P 500 is currently sitting on a gain of more than 25% YTD. Leading the way higher this year, Tech Hardware (Apple) has rallied just under 48%, while Semis are up just over 40%. Behind these two leaders, four other Industry Groups are up over 30% YTD. While there is no downside on a YTD basis, Energy has been the biggest laggard and is just barely hanging on to a YTD gain. If Energy can't hang onto a YTD gain in a year where the S&P 500 gains more than 25%, Energy investors may need to wear paper bags over their heads.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Technology Sector P/E Highest in Ten Years

As equities run to all-time highs, valuations are at a fairly interesting point. As shown in the chart below using data from our Daily Sector Snapshot included with our Morning Lineup and The Closer, most sectors' valuations are at the upper end of the past ten years' range. Four sectors, Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Utilities, and Technology all have trailing P/E ratios in the 90th percentile or higher of the past ten years' readings.
Since the S&P 500 established its first all-time high since July on October 28th, Health Care and Financials have been two of the strongest performers rising 6.68% and 4.35%, respectively. Despite these runs, both of these sectors still have reasonable valuations relative to the past decade. For Financials, the current trailing price-to-earnings ratio is in the 42nd percentile of all days of the past ten years. No other sector has such a low reading although Materials and Energy are on the lower end relative to other sectors. On the other hand, Utilities and Technology have some of the highest valuations of the past ten years with the current P/E in the 97th and 99th percentiles, respectively.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As shown in the chart below, most of the last 9-12 months has seen valuations for Utilities consistently in the uppermost range of the past ten years as investors chased yield in a low interest rate environment. But as risk-free rates have risen more recently, valuations for Utilities have pulled back a bit as price has slid. While there have been other periods in the past ten years where Utilities' P/E ratio was similarly elevated, arguably only 2016/2017 saw it remain at the upper end of the ten-year range as consistently as has been the case this year.
For Technology it is a whole different story. The P/E for the sector got crushed this time last year and after plummeting to the 31st percentile, it is has rebounded to the highest levels of the past ten years. The only other time that the sector traded at a similar premium relative to the past decade's range was back in early 2018.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Thanksgiving through Santa Claus Rally Trade

Everyone is talking about yearend seasonal strength this year, but it’s not news to us. 2019 has been tracking historical seasonal market patterns quite closely this year and that suggests it is likely to continue to track it.
Our good friend Larry McMillan (@optstrategist) trades seasonal yearend strength with the Russell 2000 from the close the day before Thanksgiving through the end of our Santa Claus Rally (the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year).
So here we have run the numbers from 1979 when the Russell index data begins comparing R2K to the DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ. The small-cap index Russell 2000 is the best performer up an average 3.1% (median 3.2%) with an 80% win ratio up 32 of the last 40 years. Last year was the worst and it’s been down 3 of the last 5 years.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Giving Thanks for the U.S. Consumer

This Thanksgiving, we’re thankful for solid consumer confidence, even though it has wavered in recent months.
Consumer confidence fell for a fourth straight month in November, according to preliminary Conference Board data. Even though the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index has dropped from its economic cycle peak, consumer sentiment is still historically elevated, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve been pleasantly surprised by the U.S. consumer’s resilience over the past year as other parts of the domestic economy have weakened amid global headwinds. Strong consumer spending has helped the economy grow at a 2% average rate over the past two quarters, despite drags on growth from business spending, inventories, and trade.
“Consumer sentiment has been largely immune from global headwinds,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “We expect consumer spending to power economic growth through next year, so we’d like to see consumer confidence pick up more with signs of trade progress.”
Consumers have several reasons to be optimistic. Employment is the primary driver of consumer health, and the U.S. labor market has been resilient. Wages are growing at a healthy rate, and consumers are reaping the benefits of tax cuts and record-high stock prices. As long as the job market stays solid and inflation remains in check, we feel good about consumers’ prospects.
Still, there are growing signs of concern. While survey respondents have remained optimistic about present conditions, their outlook on future conditions has soured, according to the Conference Board. If consumers are feeling less confident about the future, they may be less inclined to spend and invest. That loss of confidence in the outlook could lead to economic weakness over time if consumers step back.
Overall, we would need to see more significant deterioration in consumer confidence before we would start to worry about the economic outlook.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending November 29th, 2019

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 12.1.19

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $CRM
  • $DG
  • $ULTA
  • $COUP
  • $MRVL
  • $WDAY
  • $ZS
  • $RH
  • $OKTA
  • $TIF
  • $CRWD
  • $KR
  • $CLDR
  • $DSX
  • $WORK
  • $BMO
  • $ZM
  • $CPB
  • $FIVE
  • $QTT
  • $DOCU
  • $MIK
  • $TD
  • $YJ
  • $LE
  • $AVAV
  • $RY
  • $SNPS
  • $HQY
  • $DCI
  • $BIG
  • $GSM
  • $SIG
  • $SMAR
  • $GIII
  • $HOME
  • $HRB
  • $DLTH
  • $TLYS
  • $ZUO
  • $GEF
  • $JW.A
  • $GMS
  • $EXPR
  • $ZUMZ
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST ANTICIPATED EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 5 WEEKS!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 12.2.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 12.2.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 12.3.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 12.3.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 12.4.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 12.4.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 12.5.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 12.5.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 12.6.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 12.6.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Salesforce $162.89

Salesforce (CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, December 3, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.66 per share on revenue of $4.44 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.69 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.65 to $0.66 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.20% with revenue increasing by 30.90%. Short interest has decreased by 48.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.4% above its 200 day moving average of $154.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, November 25, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,252 contracts of the $162.50 call expiring on Friday, December 6, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Dollar General Corporation $157.36

Dollar General Corporation (DG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Thursday, December 5, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.38 per share on revenue of $6.91 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.39 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.52% with revenue increasing by 7.67%. Short interest has decreased by 1.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.0% above its 200 day moving average of $138.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 27, 2019 there was some notable buying of 574 contracts of the $100.00 put expiring on Friday, December 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

ULTA Beauty $233.86

ULTA Beauty (ULTA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, December 5, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.14 per share on revenue of $1.69 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.17 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.83% with revenue increasing by 8.33%. Short interest has increased by 1.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.5% below its 200 day moving average of $305.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 22, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,992 contracts of the $200.00 put expiring on Friday, January 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Coupa Software $153.49

Coupa Software (COUP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, December 2, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.06 per share on revenue of $96.50 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.05 to $0.08 per share on revenue of $96.00 million to $96.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 53.85% with revenue increasing by 43.06%. Short interest has increased by 74.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 26.1% above its 200 day moving average of $121.76. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 29, 2019 there was some notable buying of 679 contracts of the $172.50 call expiring on Friday, December 6, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 9.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Marvell Technology Group Ltd. $26.37

Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (MRVL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, December 3, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.17 per share on revenue of $660.23 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.15 to $0.19 per share on revenue of $640.00 million to $680.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 55.26% with revenue decreasing by 22.42%. Short interest has increased by 25.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.5% above its 200 day moving average of $24.08. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 15, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,289 contracts of the $29.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Workday, Inc. $179.12

Workday, Inc. (WDAY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, December 3, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.37 per share on revenue of $918.63 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.40 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $918.00 million to $920.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 640.00% with revenue increasing by 23.61%. Short interest has increased by 5.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.1% below its 200 day moving average of $188.76. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, November 18, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,895 contracts of the $160.00 put expiring on Friday, December 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 26.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Zscaler, Inc. $52.13

Zscaler, Inc. (ZS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, December 3, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.01 per share on revenue of $89.34 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.03 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for results to range from breakeven to earnings of $0.01 per share on revenue of $89.00 million to $90.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 200.00% with revenue increasing by 41.14%. Short interest has increased by 110.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 18.7% below its 200 day moving average of $64.13. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,720 contracts of the $47.00 call expiring on Friday, January 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 14.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 15.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

RH $205.59

RH (RH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Wednesday, December 4, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.21 per share on revenue of $675.57 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 27.75% with revenue increasing by 6.13%. Short interest has increased by 14.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 32.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 49.3% above its 200 day moving average of $137.69. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 13.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Okta, Inc. $129.78

Okta, Inc. (OKTA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, December 5, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.12 per share on revenue of $143.45 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.10) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.13 to $0.12 per share on revenue of $143.00 million to $144.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 220.00% with revenue increasing by 35.87%. Short interest has increased by 25.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.2% above its 200 day moving average of $110.74. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 27, 2019 there was some notable buying of 549 contracts of the $170.00 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Tiffany & Co. $133.80

Tiffany & Co. (TIF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:40 AM ET on Thursday, December 5, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.85 per share on revenue of $1.04 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 10.39% with revenue increasing by 2.73%. Short interest has decreased by 38.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 69.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.1% above its 200 day moving average of $98.28. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, November 14, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,427 contracts of the $100.00 put expiring on Friday, February 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 0.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarket.
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]


2019.06.15 17:08 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 17th, 2019

Good morning and happy Saturday to all of you here on wallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this subreddit made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 17th, 2019.

The Fed is likely to drop ‘patient’ word next week, clearing way for July cut, economists say - (Source)

Even with President Donald Trump and the markets calling for lower interest rates, the Fed is not likely to make a move when it meets next week, though it is expected to smooth the way for a rate cut later in the summer.
The timing of a Fed rate cut, the first in more than a decade, is up for debate. But such a move has become more of a given in markets, after May’s weak jobs data and softer-than-expected consumer price inflation.
A growing number of economists and investors are expecting a midsummer rate cut, at the July 30-31 meeting. There are also those who expect the Fed to wait until September, considering more data before cutting rates. Then there are a few, such as economists at Goldman Sachs, who expect no cut at all this year.
Economists expect the Fed to tilt its message toward lower rates, with officials lowering their interest rate forecasts in the so-called “dot plot,” a chart that anonymously reflects each Fed official’s rate forecast. They are also expected to reduce their outlook for economic growth, and acknowledge weaker inflation.
“Right now, they’ll just give a very dovish message that leans toward a July rate cut,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist for the Americas at Natixis. “The market is worried enough about weakness in China, inflation undershooting and the possibility that tariffs disrupt the global supply chain that it’s hard for me not to think the Fed won’t be moving faster than people thought.”
Trump again criticized the Fed and Fed Chair Jerome Powell for the Fed’s interest rate policy this week, telling ABC News the Dow would be 10,000 points higher if the Fed didn’t raise interest rates. Economists say the president’s assault on the Fed is not likely to have an impact on its interest rate decisions.
The Fed’s meeting is expected to be the biggest event for markets in the coming week. There is also some data, including manufacturing and services PMIs on Friday, as well as housing starts Tuesday and home sales on Friday.
Barclays’ chief U.S. economist, Michael Gapen, moved forward his forecast for a first rate cut to July, from September, after last Friday’s weak May employment report of just 75,000 nonfarm payrolls. He expects the Fed to use more firepower than some economists do and expects it to start with a half percent rate cut, rather than a quarter point cut.
Gapen expects the Fed to modify its statement and change its forecast, which will be released after its meeting Wednesday afternoon. “I’m looking for a modest downgrade of the outlook that could be in their projections, as well as their description of business spending. ... They have to acknowledge vulnerabilities have risen. I think they can highlight global growth and trade uncertainty, as two primary forces. I think they then get away from ‘patient’ and signal flexibility.”
In the Fed’s dot plot, there are no rate moves expected in 2019, and that is expected to change. Fed officials may also tweak their GDP forecasts. The median central tendency is currently 2.1%. The median inflation forecast was 1.8%, but that could move lower, with PCE inflation readings running at 1.6%.
Fed funds futures on Friday were signaling market expectations of about a 20% chance of a rate cut next week and about 80% for July. The Fed last raised interest rates in December, when it moved the range for fed funds futures to 2.25% to 2.50%.
After that meeting, the Fed changed its stance and added that it would be “patient,” pausing policy as it watched economic developments. Economists now expect the Fed to drop that word, signaling a willingness to move forward with rate cuts.
Chance for a cut next week? Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, said she believes the Fed should make a move next week and not wait until July. She said she became convinced Fed officials were ready to move forward with rate cuts after she attended a Chicago Fed conference earlier in the month. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other Fed officials made it clear the Fed would act to help the economy if it needed to.
Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida told CNBC at that conference that the Fed would act as needed. “We will put in policies that need to be in place to keep the economy, which is in a very good place right now, and it’s our job to keep it there,” he said in an interview.
“They were all pretty vocal about it. It was a major shift,” said Swonk. “Could they wait til July? Sure. My own view is if you’re going to do it, do it now because you can control the narrative. That’s important for the Fed to control the narrative.”
Swonk said the Fed could be sending a confusing message next week, if it doesn’t cut. “The dots are going to go down. They’ve got to remove ‘patient,’ they have to acknowledge a weaker labor market, weaker growth, all those things, and the dot plots go down. To me, that’s more confusion than clarity when you’re going to do it in six weeks anyway,” she said.
Jefferies economists are on the opposite end of the debate, and they do not have an interest rate cut in their forecast.
“If trade talks completely fall apart and we have a permanent negative impact on our trade relations with China, then we’d get a rate cut, but we don’t expect one otherwise,” said Tom Simons, Jefferies money market economist.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Next Week's Economic Indicators - 6/14/19

This week's economic data came out to a slow and disappointing start as the JOLTS report showed fewer job openings in April than expected and was below the March number. That was the only release on Monday, but activity picked up on Tuesday with a strong NFIB Small Business Optimism report, continuing the second longest streak of monthly gains for the indicator (discussed in Tuesday's Chart of the Day). Producer inflation also came out Tuesday, with a weaker headline print but improved core inflation. Wednesday's CPI also saw some weakness missing expectations on both headline and core measures. Fortunately, we rounded out the week with a heavy slate on Friday with beats nearly across the board. Retail Sales impressed in addition to the previous month being revised up. Industrial production was also stronger than expected while the University of Michigan consumer sentiment improved to 112.5.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Next week quiets down with only 19 releases. June's Empire Manufacturing index from the NY Fed kicks things off followed by homebuilder sentiment. Further in housing data, starts and permits will be out Tuesday morning. While starts are expected to rise, permits are forecasting a small downtick. Later in the week on Friday, existing home sales are forecasted to rise to 5.27 mm SAAR homes. On Wednesday, all eyes will be on the FOMC rate decision. Over the past couple of months, markets have increasingly been betting on the FOMC deciding to cut rates at this meeting or (more likely) in the near future. This event should provide some clarity into this situation. We will finish next week with the Leading Index on Thursday and preliminary June Markit PMIs on Friday.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

What Do Stocks Do After The First Rate Cut?

It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) will cut rates at the upcoming July meeting, with the potential for as many as three total rate cuts this year. This would be the first rate cut since the Fed started hiking rates in December 2015. Concerns over trade and the global economy have sparked much of this worry.
With the S&P 500 Index up nearly 15% for the year, what could this potential first rate cut mean for stocks? After all, the Fed cut rates in January 2001 and September 2007 right ahead of recessions and massive stock market corrections. Could another bear market and recession be headed our way if the Fed cuts rates soon?
“The previous two times the Fed cut rates for the first time in 2001 and 2007, we saw stocks eventually get cut in half,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But the reality is if you go back further in time, you can also see explosive rallies after that first cut.”
As our LPL Chart of the Day, “Not All Rate Cuts Are Created Equal”, shows, since 1984 there have been seven rate cuts that took place after at least one rate hike. The two most recent cuts were followed by poor performance over the next 12 months, but the other five cuts saw solid gains. In fact, the median return for the S&P 500 one year out has been a very impressive 13.9%, which suggests a potential rate cut over the coming months might not be as worrisome as many make it out to be.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

B.I.G. Tips - Retail Sales: Even Stronger Below the Surface

While it may not have looked like anything special based on the weaker than expected headline reading, there actually wasn’t much not to like about May’s Retail Sales report. In addition to being slightly better than expected after stripping out Autos and Gas, April’s report was revised significantly higher.
The table below shows monthly streaks of gains or losses for each of the sectors tracked in the Retail Sales report. Here we can see how broad and consistent the strength has been in Retail Sales after taking revisions into account. Five sectors have seen m/m growth for five straight months, and no group has seen more than one straight month of decline. Bars and Restaurants are one group that has seen sales growth for five consecutive months, and while it has yet to overtake Food and Beverage Stores in terms of its total share of sales, it’s getting close.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

June’s Boon – 5% DJIA Gain Already

Nearly two weeks ago we examined the history of June market performance after a down May following a strong January to April. That analysis suggested that this June could produce above average market gains. Thus far, the market has not disappointed. As of today’s close, DJIA is up 5.03% already this June. NASDAQ is second best, up 4.96%. S&P 500 and Russell 1000 are 4.89% higher. Russell 2000 is the laggard of the group, higher by a still respectable 3.96%. The true test for the market will arrive in the second half of the month as the end of the quarter nears. Historically, the second half of June has not been great for the market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Advance/Decline Lines Lagging

Typically at this time of the year, first half of June, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are often leading DJIA and S&P 500. Historically, the month of June has been kinder to technology and small-cap stocks than others. Sure, June has been quite robust so far, but it has been DJIA and S&P 500 leading the charge higher. Their strength is also confirmed by NYSE and S&P 500 cumulative Advance/Decline lines at new highs already. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 cumulative Advance/Decline lines are weaker have not exceeded the highs reached last year. At the least, NASDAQ’s Advance/Decline line likely needs improvement for the market to make any meaningful headway.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Has the Market Entered Its Summer Sideways Phase?

After bouncing rather solidly off support at 2725 the S&P 500 has run in to some resistance at 2910. This looks like the beginning of the annual summertime sideways phase the market often experiences. Decent economic readings and a dovish Fed are likely to prop equities up some over the usually weaker summer months. While on the other had ongoing trade battles and other political and international skirmishes as well as lower oil, rates and growth are likely to keep a lid on stocks. This sets up the market for some range bound volatility between S&P 2700 and 2900 give or take a few points. Critical support remains at the 2580 near the February/April 2018 lows. A resolution to the China trade deal or some firming in the data could push us higher and deterioration on all fronts would likely push us lower. For now expect backing and filling over the next several months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

June Option Expiration Can Be Volatile

The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, DJIA has been up ten of the last sixteen years.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 25 of the last 29 years with an average decline of 1.09%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared slightly better during the week after over the same 29-year span, declining 0.73% and 0.23% respectively on average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for June 14th, 2019

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 06.16.19

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $CGC
  • $ADBE
  • $KR
  • $ORCL
  • $KMX
  • $DRI
  • $LZB
  • $AOBC
  • $JBL
  • $CMC
  • $WGO
  • $RHT
  • $SFUN
  • $PSN
  • $HX
  • $SCS
  • $MEI
  • $CHKE
  • $KFY
  • $AMSWA
  • $ALYA
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST ANTICIPATED EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 5 WEEKS!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.17.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 6.17.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Tuesday 6.18.19 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Tuesday 6.18.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.19.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.19.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.20.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.20.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.21.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.21.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Canopy Growth Corporation $41.18

Canopy Growth Corporation (CGC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 10:35 PM ET on Thursday, June 20, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.17 per share on revenue of $71.06 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 70.00% with revenue increasing by 293.75%. The stock has drifted lower by 15.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.2% below its 200 day moving average of $42.56. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, May 2, 2019 there was some notable buying of 4,030 contracts of the $55.00 call expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 8.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 13.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Adobe Inc. $274.28

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, June 18, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.78 per share on revenue of $2.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.83 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $1.77 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.59% with revenue increasing by 22.99%. Short interest has increased by 16.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.5% above its 200 day moving average of $255.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, May 28, 2019 there was some notable buying of 671 contracts of the $295.00 call expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Kroger Co. $24.26

Kroger Co. (KR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:45 AM ET on Thursday, June 20, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.72 per share on revenue of $36.89 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.73 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.37% with revenue decreasing by 1.71%. Short interest has decreased by 8.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.5% below its 200 day moving average of $27.42. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, June 10, 2019 there was some notable buying of 12,383 contracts of the $25.00 put expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 9.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Oracle Corp. $53.28

Oracle Corp. (ORCL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, June 19, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.07 per share on revenue of $10.96 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.08 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 43% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.05 to $1.09 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.18% with revenue decreasing by 2.59%. Short interest has increased by 7.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.8% above its 200 day moving average of $50.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, May 21, 2019 there was some notable buying of 5,057 contracts of the $50.00 put expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Carmax Inc $83.54

Carmax Inc (KMX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:35 AM ET on Friday, June 21, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.49 per share on revenue of $5.18 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.51 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 12.03% with revenue increasing by 8.08%. Short interest has increased by 20.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 21.5% above its 200 day moving average of $68.76. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, June 10, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,024 contracts of the $82.50 call expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Darden Restaurants, Inc. $119.68

Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 20, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.73 per share on revenue of $2.24 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 24.46% with revenue increasing by 4.96%. Short interest has increased by 10.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.4% above its 200 day moving average of $111.48. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 14, 2019 there was some notable buying of 5,331 contracts of the $110.00 put expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

La-Z-Boy, Inc. $30.55

La-Z-Boy, Inc. (LZB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Tuesday, June 18, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.65 per share on revenue of $468.20 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.64 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.52% with revenue increasing by 11.47%. Short interest has increased by 12.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.8% below its 200 day moving average of $31.11. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 7, 2019 there was some notable buying of 504 contracts of the $30.00 put expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 12.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

American Outdoor Brands Corporation $9.03

American Outdoor Brands Corporation (AOBC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, June 19, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.17 per share on revenue of $168.35 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.18 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.11 to $0.15 per share on revenue of $162.00 million to $172.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 29.17% with revenue decreasing by 2.14%. Short interest has increased by 9.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 14.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 40.6% below its 200 day moving average of $15.20. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 31, 2019 there was some notable buying of 613 contracts of the $9.00 put expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 14.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 14.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Jabil Circuit, Inc. $26.47

Jabil Circuit, Inc. (JBL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, June 18, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $6.01 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.59 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.47 to $0.67 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 21.28% with revenue increasing by 10.54%. Short interest has increased by 0.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.4% below its 200 day moving average of $27.12. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 7.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Commercial Metals Company $15.12

Commercial Metals Company (CMC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, June 20, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.63 per share on revenue of $1.62 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.66 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 56% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 53.66% with revenue increasing by 34.50%. Short interest has increased by 61.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 5.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.8% below its 200 day moving average of $17.95. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 4, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,036 contracts of the $16.00 call expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 9.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming week ahead?
I hope you all have a fantastic weekend and a great trading week ahead wallstreetbets.
submitted by bigbear0083 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]


2019.06.15 17:06 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 17th, 2019

Good morning and happy Saturday to all of you here on stocks. I hope everyone on this subreddit made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 17th, 2019.

The Fed is likely to drop ‘patient’ word next week, clearing way for July cut, economists say - (Source)

Even with President Donald Trump and the markets calling for lower interest rates, the Fed is not likely to make a move when it meets next week, though it is expected to smooth the way for a rate cut later in the summer.
The timing of a Fed rate cut, the first in more than a decade, is up for debate. But such a move has become more of a given in markets, after May’s weak jobs data and softer-than-expected consumer price inflation.
A growing number of economists and investors are expecting a midsummer rate cut, at the July 30-31 meeting. There are also those who expect the Fed to wait until September, considering more data before cutting rates. Then there are a few, such as economists at Goldman Sachs, who expect no cut at all this year.
Economists expect the Fed to tilt its message toward lower rates, with officials lowering their interest rate forecasts in the so-called “dot plot,” a chart that anonymously reflects each Fed official’s rate forecast. They are also expected to reduce their outlook for economic growth, and acknowledge weaker inflation.
“Right now, they’ll just give a very dovish message that leans toward a July rate cut,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist for the Americas at Natixis. “The market is worried enough about weakness in China, inflation undershooting and the possibility that tariffs disrupt the global supply chain that it’s hard for me not to think the Fed won’t be moving faster than people thought.”
Trump again criticized the Fed and Fed Chair Jerome Powell for the Fed’s interest rate policy this week, telling ABC News the Dow would be 10,000 points higher if the Fed didn’t raise interest rates. Economists say the president’s assault on the Fed is not likely to have an impact on its interest rate decisions.
The Fed’s meeting is expected to be the biggest event for markets in the coming week. There is also some data, including manufacturing and services PMIs on Friday, as well as housing starts Tuesday and home sales on Friday.
Barclays’ chief U.S. economist, Michael Gapen, moved forward his forecast for a first rate cut to July, from September, after last Friday’s weak May employment report of just 75,000 nonfarm payrolls. He expects the Fed to use more firepower than some economists do and expects it to start with a half percent rate cut, rather than a quarter point cut.
Gapen expects the Fed to modify its statement and change its forecast, which will be released after its meeting Wednesday afternoon. “I’m looking for a modest downgrade of the outlook that could be in their projections, as well as their description of business spending. ... They have to acknowledge vulnerabilities have risen. I think they can highlight global growth and trade uncertainty, as two primary forces. I think they then get away from ‘patient’ and signal flexibility.”
In the Fed’s dot plot, there are no rate moves expected in 2019, and that is expected to change. Fed officials may also tweak their GDP forecasts. The median central tendency is currently 2.1%. The median inflation forecast was 1.8%, but that could move lower, with PCE inflation readings running at 1.6%.
Fed funds futures on Friday were signaling market expectations of about a 20% chance of a rate cut next week and about 80% for July. The Fed last raised interest rates in December, when it moved the range for fed funds futures to 2.25% to 2.50%.
After that meeting, the Fed changed its stance and added that it would be “patient,” pausing policy as it watched economic developments. Economists now expect the Fed to drop that word, signaling a willingness to move forward with rate cuts.
Chance for a cut next week? Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, said she believes the Fed should make a move next week and not wait until July. She said she became convinced Fed officials were ready to move forward with rate cuts after she attended a Chicago Fed conference earlier in the month. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other Fed officials made it clear the Fed would act to help the economy if it needed to.
Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida told CNBC at that conference that the Fed would act as needed. “We will put in policies that need to be in place to keep the economy, which is in a very good place right now, and it’s our job to keep it there,” he said in an interview.
“They were all pretty vocal about it. It was a major shift,” said Swonk. “Could they wait til July? Sure. My own view is if you’re going to do it, do it now because you can control the narrative. That’s important for the Fed to control the narrative.”
Swonk said the Fed could be sending a confusing message next week, if it doesn’t cut. “The dots are going to go down. They’ve got to remove ‘patient,’ they have to acknowledge a weaker labor market, weaker growth, all those things, and the dot plots go down. To me, that’s more confusion than clarity when you’re going to do it in six weeks anyway,” she said.
Jefferies economists are on the opposite end of the debate, and they do not have an interest rate cut in their forecast.
“If trade talks completely fall apart and we have a permanent negative impact on our trade relations with China, then we’d get a rate cut, but we don’t expect one otherwise,” said Tom Simons, Jefferies money market economist.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Next Week's Economic Indicators - 6/14/19

This week's economic data came out to a slow and disappointing start as the JOLTS report showed fewer job openings in April than expected and was below the March number. That was the only release on Monday, but activity picked up on Tuesday with a strong NFIB Small Business Optimism report, continuing the second longest streak of monthly gains for the indicator (discussed in Tuesday's Chart of the Day). Producer inflation also came out Tuesday, with a weaker headline print but improved core inflation. Wednesday's CPI also saw some weakness missing expectations on both headline and core measures. Fortunately, we rounded out the week with a heavy slate on Friday with beats nearly across the board. Retail Sales impressed in addition to the previous month being revised up. Industrial production was also stronger than expected while the University of Michigan consumer sentiment improved to 112.5.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Next week quiets down with only 19 releases. June's Empire Manufacturing index from the NY Fed kicks things off followed by homebuilder sentiment. Further in housing data, starts and permits will be out Tuesday morning. While starts are expected to rise, permits are forecasting a small downtick. Later in the week on Friday, existing home sales are forecasted to rise to 5.27 mm SAAR homes. On Wednesday, all eyes will be on the FOMC rate decision. Over the past couple of months, markets have increasingly been betting on the FOMC deciding to cut rates at this meeting or (more likely) in the near future. This event should provide some clarity into this situation. We will finish next week with the Leading Index on Thursday and preliminary June Markit PMIs on Friday.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

What Do Stocks Do After The First Rate Cut?

It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) will cut rates at the upcoming July meeting, with the potential for as many as three total rate cuts this year. This would be the first rate cut since the Fed started hiking rates in December 2015. Concerns over trade and the global economy have sparked much of this worry.
With the S&P 500 Index up nearly 15% for the year, what could this potential first rate cut mean for stocks? After all, the Fed cut rates in January 2001 and September 2007 right ahead of recessions and massive stock market corrections. Could another bear market and recession be headed our way if the Fed cuts rates soon?
“The previous two times the Fed cut rates for the first time in 2001 and 2007, we saw stocks eventually get cut in half,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But the reality is if you go back further in time, you can also see explosive rallies after that first cut.”
As our LPL Chart of the Day, “Not All Rate Cuts Are Created Equal”, shows, since 1984 there have been seven rate cuts that took place after at least one rate hike. The two most recent cuts were followed by poor performance over the next 12 months, but the other five cuts saw solid gains. In fact, the median return for the S&P 500 one year out has been a very impressive 13.9%, which suggests a potential rate cut over the coming months might not be as worrisome as many make it out to be.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

B.I.G. Tips - Retail Sales: Even Stronger Below the Surface

While it may not have looked like anything special based on the weaker than expected headline reading, there actually wasn’t much not to like about May’s Retail Sales report. In addition to being slightly better than expected after stripping out Autos and Gas, April’s report was revised significantly higher.
The table below shows monthly streaks of gains or losses for each of the sectors tracked in the Retail Sales report. Here we can see how broad and consistent the strength has been in Retail Sales after taking revisions into account. Five sectors have seen m/m growth for five straight months, and no group has seen more than one straight month of decline. Bars and Restaurants are one group that has seen sales growth for five consecutive months, and while it has yet to overtake Food and Beverage Stores in terms of its total share of sales, it’s getting close.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

June’s Boon – 5% DJIA Gain Already

Nearly two weeks ago we examined the history of June market performance after a down May following a strong January to April. That analysis suggested that this June could produce above average market gains. Thus far, the market has not disappointed. As of today’s close, DJIA is up 5.03% already this June. NASDAQ is second best, up 4.96%. S&P 500 and Russell 1000 are 4.89% higher. Russell 2000 is the laggard of the group, higher by a still respectable 3.96%. The true test for the market will arrive in the second half of the month as the end of the quarter nears. Historically, the second half of June has not been great for the market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Advance/Decline Lines Lagging

Typically at this time of the year, first half of June, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are often leading DJIA and S&P 500. Historically, the month of June has been kinder to technology and small-cap stocks than others. Sure, June has been quite robust so far, but it has been DJIA and S&P 500 leading the charge higher. Their strength is also confirmed by NYSE and S&P 500 cumulative Advance/Decline lines at new highs already. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 cumulative Advance/Decline lines are weaker have not exceeded the highs reached last year. At the least, NASDAQ’s Advance/Decline line likely needs improvement for the market to make any meaningful headway.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Has the Market Entered Its Summer Sideways Phase?

After bouncing rather solidly off support at 2725 the S&P 500 has run in to some resistance at 2910. This looks like the beginning of the annual summertime sideways phase the market often experiences. Decent economic readings and a dovish Fed are likely to prop equities up some over the usually weaker summer months. While on the other had ongoing trade battles and other political and international skirmishes as well as lower oil, rates and growth are likely to keep a lid on stocks. This sets up the market for some range bound volatility between S&P 2700 and 2900 give or take a few points. Critical support remains at the 2580 near the February/April 2018 lows. A resolution to the China trade deal or some firming in the data could push us higher and deterioration on all fronts would likely push us lower. For now expect backing and filling over the next several months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

June Option Expiration Can Be Volatile

The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, DJIA has been up ten of the last sixteen years.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 25 of the last 29 years with an average decline of 1.09%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared slightly better during the week after over the same 29-year span, declining 0.73% and 0.23% respectively on average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for June 14th, 2019

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET UP!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 06.16.19

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET UP!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $CGC
  • $ADBE
  • $KR
  • $ORCL
  • $KMX
  • $DRI
  • $LZB
  • $AOBC
  • $JBL
  • $CMC
  • $WGO
  • $RHT
  • $SFUN
  • $PSN
  • $HX
  • $SCS
  • $MEI
  • $CHKE
  • $KFY
  • $AMSWA
  • $ALYA
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST ANTICIPATED EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 5 WEEKS!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.17.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 6.17.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Tuesday 6.18.19 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Tuesday 6.18.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.19.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.19.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.20.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.20.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.21.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.21.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Canopy Growth Corporation $41.18

Canopy Growth Corporation (CGC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 10:35 PM ET on Thursday, June 20, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.17 per share on revenue of $71.06 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 70.00% with revenue increasing by 293.75%. The stock has drifted lower by 15.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.2% below its 200 day moving average of $42.56. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, May 2, 2019 there was some notable buying of 4,030 contracts of the $55.00 call expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 8.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 13.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Adobe Inc. $274.28

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, June 18, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.78 per share on revenue of $2.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.83 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $1.77 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.59% with revenue increasing by 22.99%. Short interest has increased by 16.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.5% above its 200 day moving average of $255.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, May 28, 2019 there was some notable buying of 671 contracts of the $295.00 call expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Kroger Co. $24.26

Kroger Co. (KR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:45 AM ET on Thursday, June 20, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.72 per share on revenue of $36.89 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.73 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.37% with revenue decreasing by 1.71%. Short interest has decreased by 8.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.5% below its 200 day moving average of $27.42. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, June 10, 2019 there was some notable buying of 12,383 contracts of the $25.00 put expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 9.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Oracle Corp. $53.28

Oracle Corp. (ORCL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, June 19, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.07 per share on revenue of $10.96 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.08 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 43% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.05 to $1.09 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.18% with revenue decreasing by 2.59%. Short interest has increased by 7.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.8% above its 200 day moving average of $50.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, May 21, 2019 there was some notable buying of 5,057 contracts of the $50.00 put expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Carmax Inc $83.54

Carmax Inc (KMX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:35 AM ET on Friday, June 21, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.49 per share on revenue of $5.18 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.51 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 12.03% with revenue increasing by 8.08%. Short interest has increased by 20.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 21.5% above its 200 day moving average of $68.76. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, June 10, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,024 contracts of the $82.50 call expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Darden Restaurants, Inc. $119.68

Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 20, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.73 per share on revenue of $2.24 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 24.46% with revenue increasing by 4.96%. Short interest has increased by 10.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.4% above its 200 day moving average of $111.48. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 14, 2019 there was some notable buying of 5,331 contracts of the $110.00 put expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

La-Z-Boy, Inc. $30.55

La-Z-Boy, Inc. (LZB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Tuesday, June 18, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.65 per share on revenue of $468.20 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.64 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.52% with revenue increasing by 11.47%. Short interest has increased by 12.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.8% below its 200 day moving average of $31.11. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 7, 2019 there was some notable buying of 504 contracts of the $30.00 put expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 12.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

American Outdoor Brands Corporation $9.03

American Outdoor Brands Corporation (AOBC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, June 19, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.17 per share on revenue of $168.35 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.18 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.11 to $0.15 per share on revenue of $162.00 million to $172.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 29.17% with revenue decreasing by 2.14%. Short interest has increased by 9.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 14.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 40.6% below its 200 day moving average of $15.20. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 31, 2019 there was some notable buying of 613 contracts of the $9.00 put expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 14.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 14.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Jabil Circuit, Inc. $26.47

Jabil Circuit, Inc. (JBL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, June 18, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $6.01 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.59 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.47 to $0.67 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 21.28% with revenue increasing by 10.54%. Short interest has increased by 0.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.4% below its 200 day moving average of $27.12. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 7.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Commercial Metals Company $15.12

Commercial Metals Company (CMC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, June 20, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.63 per share on revenue of $1.62 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.66 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 56% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 53.66% with revenue increasing by 34.50%. Short interest has increased by 61.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 5.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.8% below its 200 day moving average of $17.95. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 4, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,036 contracts of the $16.00 call expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 9.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming week ahead?
I hope you all have a fantastic weekend and a great trading week ahead stocks.
submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]


2019.06.15 17:04 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 17th, 2019

Good morning and happy Saturday to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this subreddit made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 17th, 2019.

The Fed is likely to drop ‘patient’ word next week, clearing way for July cut, economists say - (Source)

Even with President Donald Trump and the markets calling for lower interest rates, the Fed is not likely to make a move when it meets next week, though it is expected to smooth the way for a rate cut later in the summer.
The timing of a Fed rate cut, the first in more than a decade, is up for debate. But such a move has become more of a given in markets, after May’s weak jobs data and softer-than-expected consumer price inflation.
A growing number of economists and investors are expecting a midsummer rate cut, at the July 30-31 meeting. There are also those who expect the Fed to wait until September, considering more data before cutting rates. Then there are a few, such as economists at Goldman Sachs, who expect no cut at all this year.
Economists expect the Fed to tilt its message toward lower rates, with officials lowering their interest rate forecasts in the so-called “dot plot,” a chart that anonymously reflects each Fed official’s rate forecast. They are also expected to reduce their outlook for economic growth, and acknowledge weaker inflation.
“Right now, they’ll just give a very dovish message that leans toward a July rate cut,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist for the Americas at Natixis. “The market is worried enough about weakness in China, inflation undershooting and the possibility that tariffs disrupt the global supply chain that it’s hard for me not to think the Fed won’t be moving faster than people thought.”
Trump again criticized the Fed and Fed Chair Jerome Powell for the Fed’s interest rate policy this week, telling ABC News the Dow would be 10,000 points higher if the Fed didn’t raise interest rates. Economists say the president’s assault on the Fed is not likely to have an impact on its interest rate decisions.
The Fed’s meeting is expected to be the biggest event for markets in the coming week. There is also some data, including manufacturing and services PMIs on Friday, as well as housing starts Tuesday and home sales on Friday.
Barclays’ chief U.S. economist, Michael Gapen, moved forward his forecast for a first rate cut to July, from September, after last Friday’s weak May employment report of just 75,000 nonfarm payrolls. He expects the Fed to use more firepower than some economists do and expects it to start with a half percent rate cut, rather than a quarter point cut.
Gapen expects the Fed to modify its statement and change its forecast, which will be released after its meeting Wednesday afternoon. “I’m looking for a modest downgrade of the outlook that could be in their projections, as well as their description of business spending. ... They have to acknowledge vulnerabilities have risen. I think they can highlight global growth and trade uncertainty, as two primary forces. I think they then get away from ‘patient’ and signal flexibility.”
In the Fed’s dot plot, there are no rate moves expected in 2019, and that is expected to change. Fed officials may also tweak their GDP forecasts. The median central tendency is currently 2.1%. The median inflation forecast was 1.8%, but that could move lower, with PCE inflation readings running at 1.6%.
Fed funds futures on Friday were signaling market expectations of about a 20% chance of a rate cut next week and about 80% for July. The Fed last raised interest rates in December, when it moved the range for fed funds futures to 2.25% to 2.50%.
After that meeting, the Fed changed its stance and added that it would be “patient,” pausing policy as it watched economic developments. Economists now expect the Fed to drop that word, signaling a willingness to move forward with rate cuts.
Chance for a cut next week? Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, said she believes the Fed should make a move next week and not wait until July. She said she became convinced Fed officials were ready to move forward with rate cuts after she attended a Chicago Fed conference earlier in the month. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other Fed officials made it clear the Fed would act to help the economy if it needed to.
Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida told CNBC at that conference that the Fed would act as needed. “We will put in policies that need to be in place to keep the economy, which is in a very good place right now, and it’s our job to keep it there,” he said in an interview.
“They were all pretty vocal about it. It was a major shift,” said Swonk. “Could they wait til July? Sure. My own view is if you’re going to do it, do it now because you can control the narrative. That’s important for the Fed to control the narrative.”
Swonk said the Fed could be sending a confusing message next week, if it doesn’t cut. “The dots are going to go down. They’ve got to remove ‘patient,’ they have to acknowledge a weaker labor market, weaker growth, all those things, and the dot plots go down. To me, that’s more confusion than clarity when you’re going to do it in six weeks anyway,” she said.
Jefferies economists are on the opposite end of the debate, and they do not have an interest rate cut in their forecast.
“If trade talks completely fall apart and we have a permanent negative impact on our trade relations with China, then we’d get a rate cut, but we don’t expect one otherwise,” said Tom Simons, Jefferies money market economist.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Next Week's Economic Indicators - 6/14/19

This week's economic data came out to a slow and disappointing start as the JOLTS report showed fewer job openings in April than expected and was below the March number. That was the only release on Monday, but activity picked up on Tuesday with a strong NFIB Small Business Optimism report, continuing the second longest streak of monthly gains for the indicator (discussed in Tuesday's Chart of the Day). Producer inflation also came out Tuesday, with a weaker headline print but improved core inflation. Wednesday's CPI also saw some weakness missing expectations on both headline and core measures. Fortunately, we rounded out the week with a heavy slate on Friday with beats nearly across the board. Retail Sales impressed in addition to the previous month being revised up. Industrial production was also stronger than expected while the University of Michigan consumer sentiment improved to 112.5.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Next week quiets down with only 19 releases. June's Empire Manufacturing index from the NY Fed kicks things off followed by homebuilder sentiment. Further in housing data, starts and permits will be out Tuesday morning. While starts are expected to rise, permits are forecasting a small downtick. Later in the week on Friday, existing home sales are forecasted to rise to 5.27 mm SAAR homes. On Wednesday, all eyes will be on the FOMC rate decision. Over the past couple of months, markets have increasingly been betting on the FOMC deciding to cut rates at this meeting or (more likely) in the near future. This event should provide some clarity into this situation. We will finish next week with the Leading Index on Thursday and preliminary June Markit PMIs on Friday.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

What Do Stocks Do After The First Rate Cut?

It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) will cut rates at the upcoming July meeting, with the potential for as many as three total rate cuts this year. This would be the first rate cut since the Fed started hiking rates in December 2015. Concerns over trade and the global economy have sparked much of this worry.
With the S&P 500 Index up nearly 15% for the year, what could this potential first rate cut mean for stocks? After all, the Fed cut rates in January 2001 and September 2007 right ahead of recessions and massive stock market corrections. Could another bear market and recession be headed our way if the Fed cuts rates soon?
“The previous two times the Fed cut rates for the first time in 2001 and 2007, we saw stocks eventually get cut in half,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But the reality is if you go back further in time, you can also see explosive rallies after that first cut.”
As our LPL Chart of the Day, “Not All Rate Cuts Are Created Equal”, shows, since 1984 there have been seven rate cuts that took place after at least one rate hike. The two most recent cuts were followed by poor performance over the next 12 months, but the other five cuts saw solid gains. In fact, the median return for the S&P 500 one year out has been a very impressive 13.9%, which suggests a potential rate cut over the coming months might not be as worrisome as many make it out to be.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

B.I.G. Tips - Retail Sales: Even Stronger Below the Surface

While it may not have looked like anything special based on the weaker than expected headline reading, there actually wasn’t much not to like about May’s Retail Sales report. In addition to being slightly better than expected after stripping out Autos and Gas, April’s report was revised significantly higher.
The table below shows monthly streaks of gains or losses for each of the sectors tracked in the Retail Sales report. Here we can see how broad and consistent the strength has been in Retail Sales after taking revisions into account. Five sectors have seen m/m growth for five straight months, and no group has seen more than one straight month of decline. Bars and Restaurants are one group that has seen sales growth for five consecutive months, and while it has yet to overtake Food and Beverage Stores in terms of its total share of sales, it’s getting close.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

June’s Boon – 5% DJIA Gain Already

Nearly two weeks ago we examined the history of June market performance after a down May following a strong January to April. That analysis suggested that this June could produce above average market gains. Thus far, the market has not disappointed. As of today’s close, DJIA is up 5.03% already this June. NASDAQ is second best, up 4.96%. S&P 500 and Russell 1000 are 4.89% higher. Russell 2000 is the laggard of the group, higher by a still respectable 3.96%. The true test for the market will arrive in the second half of the month as the end of the quarter nears. Historically, the second half of June has not been great for the market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Advance/Decline Lines Lagging

Typically at this time of the year, first half of June, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are often leading DJIA and S&P 500. Historically, the month of June has been kinder to technology and small-cap stocks than others. Sure, June has been quite robust so far, but it has been DJIA and S&P 500 leading the charge higher. Their strength is also confirmed by NYSE and S&P 500 cumulative Advance/Decline lines at new highs already. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 cumulative Advance/Decline lines are weaker have not exceeded the highs reached last year. At the least, NASDAQ’s Advance/Decline line likely needs improvement for the market to make any meaningful headway.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Has the Market Entered Its Summer Sideways Phase?

After bouncing rather solidly off support at 2725 the S&P 500 has run in to some resistance at 2910. This looks like the beginning of the annual summertime sideways phase the market often experiences. Decent economic readings and a dovish Fed are likely to prop equities up some over the usually weaker summer months. While on the other had ongoing trade battles and other political and international skirmishes as well as lower oil, rates and growth are likely to keep a lid on stocks. This sets up the market for some range bound volatility between S&P 2700 and 2900 give or take a few points. Critical support remains at the 2580 near the February/April 2018 lows. A resolution to the China trade deal or some firming in the data could push us higher and deterioration on all fronts would likely push us lower. For now expect backing and filling over the next several months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

June Option Expiration Can Be Volatile

The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, DJIA has been up ten of the last sixteen years.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 25 of the last 29 years with an average decline of 1.09%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared slightly better during the week after over the same 29-year span, declining 0.73% and 0.23% respectively on average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for June 14th, 2019

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 06.16.19

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $CGC
  • $ADBE
  • $KR
  • $ORCL
  • $KMX
  • $DRI
  • $LZB
  • $AOBC
  • $JBL
  • $CMC
  • $WGO
  • $RHT
  • $SFUN
  • $PSN
  • $HX
  • $SCS
  • $MEI
  • $CHKE
  • $KFY
  • $AMSWA
  • $ALYA
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST ANTICIPATED EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 5 WEEKS!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.17.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 6.17.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Tuesday 6.18.19 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Tuesday 6.18.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.19.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.19.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.20.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.20.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.21.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.21.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Canopy Growth Corporation $41.18

Canopy Growth Corporation (CGC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 10:35 PM ET on Thursday, June 20, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.17 per share on revenue of $71.06 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 70.00% with revenue increasing by 293.75%. The stock has drifted lower by 15.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.2% below its 200 day moving average of $42.56. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, May 2, 2019 there was some notable buying of 4,030 contracts of the $55.00 call expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 8.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 13.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Adobe Inc. $274.28

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, June 18, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.78 per share on revenue of $2.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.83 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $1.77 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.59% with revenue increasing by 22.99%. Short interest has increased by 16.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.5% above its 200 day moving average of $255.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, May 28, 2019 there was some notable buying of 671 contracts of the $295.00 call expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Kroger Co. $24.26

Kroger Co. (KR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:45 AM ET on Thursday, June 20, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.72 per share on revenue of $36.89 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.73 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.37% with revenue decreasing by 1.71%. Short interest has decreased by 8.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.5% below its 200 day moving average of $27.42. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, June 10, 2019 there was some notable buying of 12,383 contracts of the $25.00 put expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 9.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Oracle Corp. $53.28

Oracle Corp. (ORCL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, June 19, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.07 per share on revenue of $10.96 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.08 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 43% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.05 to $1.09 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.18% with revenue decreasing by 2.59%. Short interest has increased by 7.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.8% above its 200 day moving average of $50.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, May 21, 2019 there was some notable buying of 5,057 contracts of the $50.00 put expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Carmax Inc $83.54

Carmax Inc (KMX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:35 AM ET on Friday, June 21, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.49 per share on revenue of $5.18 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.51 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 12.03% with revenue increasing by 8.08%. Short interest has increased by 20.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 21.5% above its 200 day moving average of $68.76. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, June 10, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,024 contracts of the $82.50 call expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Darden Restaurants, Inc. $119.68

Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 20, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.73 per share on revenue of $2.24 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 24.46% with revenue increasing by 4.96%. Short interest has increased by 10.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.4% above its 200 day moving average of $111.48. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 14, 2019 there was some notable buying of 5,331 contracts of the $110.00 put expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.1% move in recent quarters.

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La-Z-Boy, Inc. $30.55

La-Z-Boy, Inc. (LZB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Tuesday, June 18, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.65 per share on revenue of $468.20 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.64 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.52% with revenue increasing by 11.47%. Short interest has increased by 12.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.8% below its 200 day moving average of $31.11. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 7, 2019 there was some notable buying of 504 contracts of the $30.00 put expiring on Friday, July 19, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 12.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.8% move in recent quarters.

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American Outdoor Brands Corporation $9.03

American Outdoor Brands Corporation (AOBC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, June 19, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.17 per share on revenue of $168.35 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.18 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.11 to $0.15 per share on revenue of $162.00 million to $172.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 29.17% with revenue decreasing by 2.14%. Short interest has increased by 9.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 14.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 40.6% below its 200 day moving average of $15.20. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, May 31, 2019 there was some notable buying of 613 contracts of the $9.00 put expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 14.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 14.6% move in recent quarters.

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Jabil Circuit, Inc. $26.47

Jabil Circuit, Inc. (JBL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, June 18, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $6.01 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.59 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.47 to $0.67 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 21.28% with revenue increasing by 10.54%. Short interest has increased by 0.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 2.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.4% below its 200 day moving average of $27.12. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 7.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.5% move in recent quarters.

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Commercial Metals Company $15.12

Commercial Metals Company (CMC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, June 20, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.63 per share on revenue of $1.62 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.66 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 56% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 53.66% with revenue increasing by 34.50%. Short interest has increased by 61.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 5.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.8% below its 200 day moving average of $17.95. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 4, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,036 contracts of the $16.00 call expiring on Friday, June 21, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 9.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.0% move in recent quarters.

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DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming week ahead?
I hope you all have a fantastic weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarket.
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]


2019.01.08 21:42 PoliticsModeratorBot Megathread: Manafort Shared Trump Campaign Data With Russian Associate, Prosecutors Say

WASHINGTON — Paul Manafort shared Trump campaign polling data with an associate tied to Russian intelligence during the 2016 campaign, prosecutors alleged, according to a court filing unsealed on Tuesday.
The accusations came to light in a document filed by Mr. Manafort’s defense lawyers that was supposed to be partly blacked out but contained a formatting error that accidentally revealed the information.
Due to a high volume of submissions for this story, we are consolidating into a megathread. Please keep discussion on topic and free of noise. Off topic or low effort comments may be automatically removed.

Submissions that may interest you

SUBMISSION DOMAIN
Supreme Court rules against mystery corporation from ‘Country A’ fighting subpoena in Mueller investigation washingtonpost.com
Manafort Shared Trump Campaign Data With Russian Tied to Intelligence Services, Prosecutors Say nytimes.com
Manafort’s Attorneys Failed to Redact, Exposed Lines Mentioning ‘the President’ lawandcrime.com
Manafort shared internal polling date with alleged Russian spy during campaign, according to court filing news.vice.com
Mueller Suspects Manafort Gave '16 Polling Data to Russian bloomberg.com
Redaction error reveals Manafort suspected of sharing polling info with ex-employee linked to Russian intelligence thehill.com
A Paul Manafort court filing just accidentally connected some big dots between the Trump campaign and Russia washingtonpost.com
Paul Manafort shared Trump campaign polling data with suspected Russian intelligence asset, court papers reveal nydailynews.com
Manafort Suggests He Gave Suspected Russian Spy 2016 Polling Data thedailybeast.com
Mueller alleges Manafort lied about sharing info with Russian operative axios.com
Mueller says Paul Manafort shared 2016 polling data with Russians, mistakenly redacted filing reveals theweek.com
Paul Manafort shared 2016 polling data with Russian employee, according to court filing washingtonpost.com
Manafort accused by Mueller of sharing 2016 polling data with Russian linked to Moscow intelligence - Manafort attorneys inadvertently disclose allegation in filing; Allegation relates to association with Konstantin Kilimnik theguardian.com
Mueller accused Paul Manafort of lying about sharing polling with alleged Russian spy cnbc.com
Manafort shared Trump polling data with Ukrainian associate during 2016 campaign politico.com
Trump’s Campaign Manager Gave Polling Data to Russian Agent nymag.com
Feds: Paul Manafort shared 2016 presidential polling data with ex-Russian agent abcnews.go.com
Manafort lied about sharing presidential polling data with Russian linked to intelligence services nbcnews.com
Analysis: Unredacted Paul Manafort filing hints at collusion cnn.com
Manafort attorney's redaction error reveals he provided Trump polling data to Russian operative m.washingtontimes.com
Russian lawyer who met Kushner, Manafort, Don Jr. indicted msnbc.com
Trump Has Defeated Himself theatlantic.com
The networks interrupted their programming for the lamest rerun on television washingtonpost.com
The real crisis is that Trump has no idea what he’s doing vox.com
Bernie Sanders: Trump Created Crisis Himself bloomberg.com
Robert Mueller: Paul Manafort shared 2016 campaign polling data with Russian spy upi.com
Manafort lied about giving Trump 2016 campaign data to a Russian msnbc.com
GOP Senator: Manafort Wasn’t Colluding, He Knew Russian Agent ‘For a Very Long Time’ nymag.com
Manafort accused of sharing 2016 election data with Russians - Story fox5atlanta.com
Trump denies knowing Manafort shared polling data with Russian associate thehill.com
Trump: Didn’t know about allegations Manafort shared polling washingtonpost.com
Trump denies knowledge of Manafort's correspondence with Russian associate politico.com
Trump: I knew 'nothing' about campaign chief Manafort sharing polling data with alleged Russian spy cnbc.com
Trump Campaign in Legal Jeopardy Over Manafort’s Sharing Data with Russian Agent justsecurity.org
Giuliani claims 'nothing wrong' about Manafort feeding Trump campaign data to suspected Russian spy: 'It's a joke' nydailynews.com
submitted by PoliticsModeratorBot to politics [link] [comments]


2017.05.05 05:04 911bodysnatchers322 Part 35: Cliff Notes, "Awan Brotherhood / Hillary's Hackers"

George Webb
The following are best-effort transcriptions of the George Webb Video Series. The series is a daily, ongoing open source investigation of HRC with researchers in #HRCRatline on twitter and facebook and trello.
Previous Notes
Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 Part 5
Part 6 Part 7 Part 8 Part 9 Part 10
Part 11 Part 12 Part 13 Part 14 Part 15
Part 16 Part 17 Part 18 Part 19 Part 20
Part 21 Part 22 Part 23 Part 24 Part 25
Part 26 Part 27 Part 28 Part 29 Part 30
Part 31 Part 32 Part 33 Part 34  
  • [Day 189.2 Hillary's Hackers, Awan Brothers Saga Deepens, Part 1 - YouTube] PART 2 -- 2:33
    • About an hour and a half into the trip. Shout out to Monami de {?}
    • She has an issue with her daughter who has seizures, so she needs a pep talk right now, so I'm going to give her the french proverb....{{ George says a french proverb }}
    • "When things seem the darkest there is an escape"
    • That's kind of a phrase for the whole series--
    • When it seems like the Deep State has completely surrounded you, and it seems there's no respite from the current or previous administration. There IS an escape, there is an evasion: and that evasion is the Truth.
    • I'll continue to do this over and over. Provide.
    • When things seem the darkest I will provide a new Truth that will give hope along the way
    • One example I will just name is the 2 social security numbers for Ibrahim who owns the house in Ft. Wayne
    • People might say well maybe it's an immigrant, maybe they filled out double paperwork, they couldn't read English that well, they were Somalia, PK. Well the fact they are living in Indianapolis and have another house in Ft. Wayne is maybe a little questionable. * But if one of the SSN's belongs to a person in CA who died in 1991, that's a horse of a different color is it not??
    • And that's what I mean by the truth: no matter how overpowering the Deep State is, and no matter how many billions of dollars were spent on terrorism to be used against the citizens of the US.
    • Aren't the members of the Deep State--aren't they americans too? At some point, doesn't the appeal to truth have some meaning for them.
    • And that is the escape, that is the evasion in this whole play here
  • [Day 189.2 Hillary's Hackers, Awan Brothers Saga Deepens, Part 1 - YouTube] - skipping part q as it's the same as part 1, 5:21
    • Retracing the life of a Pakistani Mango
    • Pakistan mangos there were 2 yrs where the Hillary State Dept worked to get PK mangos flown in to the US from 2009-2011
    • The significance of the Awan brothers --they formed a corporation about the same day that the PK mangos started arriving here in Chicago.
    • I priced what it would cost to send that incredible 3 dollar box of 6 mangos from Lahore, PK
    • Assuming it costs no money to get it from the hills of the Kashmir border down to a shipping facility to Lahore
    • The landing cost here in Chicago is 208 dollars.
    • The reason is that Fedex can make a lot more money doing business correspondence even at a 1/4 lb packages would make a lot more than 208 dollars so they have to charge you at least 208 dollars
    • So if I'm at Raja foods in skokee, I can only sell those mangos for 18 dollars but now I have a transporatation cost of 208 dollars
    • I have to leave now, Oharea at 4 in the morning to go to Iowa, to go to the USDA, APHIS facility--I think it's a play on the word 'aphid' which could have infested fruit
    • So I'm headed in that direction.
    • The real reason Noreen Gosch her son was kidnapped in the famous finders case. Later I contacted Paul Rodriguez on another finders case in 2003.
    • The famous 1989 WA times article by Paul Rodriguez--the subject of that boy that was missing that was flown to the White House was Johnny Gosch, and I'm trying to go see Noreen Gosch now
    • The other thing I wanted to mention was the 808 e louis house. These houses are going to become part of Americana. This is like a Tolstoy novel, when the character gets introduced, they're going to keep coming back over and over. {{ Tolstoy reference }}
    • Ibrahim is the key to this. He's the owner of the house. Ibrahim is going to be Somali, he's in Indianapolis hosting these kids up in Ft. Wayne. Nothings wrong with that but {{Audio}} two social security numbers.
    • You're going to find this repeating pattern of 3 kids from war torn nations
    • {{ Audio is very bad }}
    • If they got rid of MS13 in the US...{{ it wont' stop anything, they'll hire new 'cashiers' }}
    • {{ Audio was too bad towards the end }}
  • [Day 189.3. Hillary's Hackers, Awan Brothers Saga Deepens, Part 3 - YouTube]
    • We are riding on the Mango Pack express. Not quite to Iowa yet
    • {{ George talks about how youtube took down his video and messed with the sound }}
    • I'm looking at the cost of flying a box of mangos from Lahore PK to Chicago: it's about 208 dollars
    • Now I'm going to Iowa to go to the USDA facility and I'm also trying to talk to Noreen Gosch whose son was kidnapped in the Finders case.
    • That Paul Rodriguez wrote--who died too young unfortunately, but a great journalist I had a chance to work with in 2003-4 on a similar finders case in Long Island
    • I'd like to talk to the mother {{ from Rodriguez's article }} after all this time. She's talked to a lot of journalists but again I don't think journalism is headed toward trying to actually go toward a resolution or truth, it's just more sensational splashes she's seen so far. If people know Noreen I want to let her know in advance I'm not the kind of splash-journalist that just wants to write another sensational article. I'm actually looking to unwind these ratlines. Just make the deep state try harder if nothing else.
    • So I don't have any french prepared for this episode, but I did liken this saga to tolstoy novel -- these characters will keep showing up again and again.
    • Ibrahim recap
    • Ibrahims story also gets complicated because these 3 kids refused to become a kill team, and at some point there's a moral compass in everyone that says "i'm not going to kill somebody"
    • At that point you're a dog that doesn't hunt, and you're of no use to the deep state
    • That's why I believe the 3 boys were killed. They were good kids actually, just in a very horrible, war-torn situaiton. They said to themselves, ok so I could do the drugs to get my education to get out of this war-torn situation, I could do the sex situations, but I cannot kill--and that dog didn't hunt so they were killed
  • [Day 189.4. Hillary's Hackers, Awan Brothers Saga Deepens, Part 4 - YouTube]
    • I stopped at a rest stop just about ready to go to Iowa and I got an email from an operating room nurse who has been doing transplant surgery for 35 yrs. I believe she's retired now, but she lives in Minneapolis/St. Paul area.
    • She told me about this ratline, between Chicago and Minneapolis/St. Paul known as the I-90, 94 ratline.
    • She mentioned IU, Indiana University doing intestinal transplants which I didn't know you could do.
    • She mentioned most of the doctors were foreign there, most being from India, but if they weren't from India they were from NC. NC is a placeholder for PK and UAE. Why wouldn't she say PK or UAE?
    • Many of the kids who graduated with my son at Columbia are from PK or India
    • And my kid's the poor white kid in the back with the great grades. My son had a 34 on the MCATs and the median for getting into Johns Hopkins and Harvard are around 32 and he had a 4.5 on a 4.0 scale, don't know how you do that, double major
    • He didn't take the easy stuff, he took the hard stuff. He applied to 10 medical schools. US kid living in a rural area, no stoplight had a yellow flashing light. He couldn't get an interview even at Oregon State University. OSU. We knew folks at OHSU, I had made contact with people at OHSU. What i'm saying is we visited a lot of these schools, especially University of California. 10/10 schools he didn't get an interview
    • There was the last one was Columbia University, a late one and I said Josh: you speak Spanish. Just say you want to do your interview in Spanish. In your first line of the interview, btw, before I get started with the application just say you want to do your interview in Spanish. Because he speaks Spanish very well
    • Columbia is in Spanish Harlem, so he got an interview.
    • As soon as he had an interview he got the placement at Columbia.
    • {{ This story makes me furious, because I believe it...it's more Awan level crap. Why are we outsourcing jobs and insourcing school seats and jobs? And then why is "America First" a dirty phrase? There is No loyalty to the American citizen who has given the corporate class everything. When the country implodes, know that it's not your fault or mine, or anyone reading this but the 7th Floor Group and their Crony Capitalist Transnational Pirate Class /rant complete }}
    • All I'm trying to say here is I hope we're not going so far overboard to bring in people from different countries--these folks are very talented and so forth--but if you have a student here with a 4.5 out of 4 scale doing a 34 on the MCATs are we being prejudicial against people being born in our own country? {{ Yes, the answer is yes we are }}
    • And if it's for politicians that are trying to bring in Sheiks to get promise everlasting life in transplants for political contributions: that REALLY distorts things. And those are the people who are in charge of these University admissions.
    • And that's what I'm trying...<> I did a right turn here to go and see her, because she's got information about ratlines and she knows a NYC detective as well, so we're going to be fishing bodies out of the mississipi in the spring
    • Sorry for the mango express folks that were following along. I'm going to get to the mango-USDA case tomorrow but this story was just too compelling so I've gotta go there now.
  • [Day 189.5 Hillary's Hackers, Awan Brothers Saga Deepens, Part 5 - YouTube]
    • This is a followup on the Rolling Stone hit piece
    • Whispers from sources in NY that it's going to be Vigilantes-of-the-Internet, so I'm not going to be the sole--one of maybe 5-6 examples
    • VotI endangering the lives of innocent Muslims. Again...not a muslim thing, not a PK thing, not a PK extremist thing; it's a PK extremist with double-triple garrotting with murders 30 mi away {{ ie: PK ISI working with FBI JTTF }}
    • Again, I'm not trying to demean PK extremist groups that teach garrotting---I just want to know if there's DNA. I don't know why Lees, the Police Chief won't release the DNA in that case, in Delphi. If it's white guys, great, if it's black guys, hispanic, muslim guys great. If it's garrotting: great. The data IS going to come out, so this attack by Rolling Stone saying somehow this is an attack on all Islam is completely fallacious. I think I have enough videos out now, and I'm hearing its going to come out next week and I'm just priming for this, as other journalists look into me, my work and what I'm doing. So that's that. I'm going to move onto a different topic though
    • This is in the area of the journalism school, and I know a lot of professors out there are trying to use the Lee Stranahan tremendous theory and practice that he's developed, to develop a curriculum for journalism school.
    • And alot of folks are talking about using my stuff as kind of street journalism, instinct journalism, colombo journalism, open source journalism, open media research journalism, lots of different names.
    • One of the things I wanted to do was in the data sciences area.
    • Someone has mentioned Maltego before. {{ Forget that tool, it's very expensive and no, not 'really' open source--check out the webbrain's collaborative server option }}
    • Before we get off on the Mossad op: no...well...Ok
    • Maltego code may have spent some time in Ben Gurion University or Beersheba, but it's in S. Africa now, let's not push Maltego down because it has Mossad roots
    • What I would like do is scrape all the text metadata that some tremendous person has done metadata for the 412 or 420 episodes, and scrape all the comments as well. I'd like to scrape all the comments on all the slides throughout perpituity from Google docs; and I'd like to scrape all the comments on facebook as well, put them all into a body of knowledge that can be scanned and searched, because I'd like to develop what is called entity analysis, mark those key phrases--Frank Guistra example; for later on link-analysis.
    • THe really cool thing about Maltego is once you identify your entities, then you have what they have transforms. Kind of like fast fourier transforms...x comes in one side, and y comes out the other.
    • So, one of the cool transforms is email. Say I say george with no e dot webb at gmail dot com then it will go and say here's george's linkedin here's his facebook, here's his google+ profile--all the metadata will come back and here's all his friends and then we start doing link analysis of all his friends
    • All those transforms are built-into Maltego {{ integration with social APIs for harvesting social graph data }}
    • THre's going to be other ones as well as far as if you are a registered agent like Mahmood for one of the Awan brothers' companies, then we're going to be able to see all the other places you're a registered agent. WE're going to be able to see if you are a registered agent for ISI as well.
    • Hopefully I may get out of this thing. But if I don't, I'd like to leave some kind of legacy toward universities: that this isn't just an immediacy thing, this isn't just happening in the realtime: this is a working rough draft of history.
    • Because this can be an input into more refined journalism.
    • We have tremendous citations: a tremendous number of links: Someone went through and culled all the links once, and this was day 89 and there were like 500 links. Just the http links are a valuable resource.
    • Once you identify the entites you can score the entities, the entitites you can rise to the top. You can apply all kinds of different algorithms to the entities--whether they've ever been convicted of a crime whether they've ever had more than 1M dollars donated to a political candidate--all these different scoring mechanisms from all over the world so that other Universities can pick up on the link analysis once its done and then do their analysis. That's kind of where I'd like to go. If anyone out there has the technical wherewithal to get that kind of project done or wants to pursue that through a University let me know. Thank you very much.
    • I just went by Fort McCoy, where there's a VA hospital and I hope that these OR facilities aren't being reserved at graveyard shifts for foreign dignitaries to live an everlasting life with organs from my brothers with just a little more melanin than me in Homen Square in Chicago or in Minneapolis St. Paul it's equidistant between to the two.
    • But with what's happening with the VA and still having problems, I get this sense that there's this scheduling thing that's happening that's keeping these operating theaters open at night.
    • Maybe those are off-hours anyway.
    • I just don't like it--I dont' like this kind of clandestine, covert organ trading. It should be an open process.
  • [Day 189.6. Hillary'Hillarys, Awan Brothers Saga Deepens, Part 6 - YouTube]
    • Here in Minneapolis. The place behind me is supposed to be Somali ground zero here
    • Close to the University
    • There was an explosion here in one of these buildings and then three people missing. What 3 people? The original news report didn't publish that. The police didn't give them that, because if you are a reporter you're going to publish who's missing.
    • I don't like this. I dont' like the incomplete police reports. If someone is missing they're missing
    • You got it all here.
    • You got Cathleen Crowley who is an FBI whistleblower who said they didn't listen to our warnings about 9/11
    • Keith Ellison with the sanctuary city thing
    • The local sheriff saying Somalis are getting a bad rap, they are being used for all the dirty work
    • Star Tribune doing spotty reporting
    • I'm trying to find the most dangerous cafe to go to. I think the WhizBang is maybe the place. So Maybe I'll get whizzed or I'll get banged. Who know? But we're going in. {{ Lol }}
  • [189.7. Hillary'Hillarys , Awan Brothers Saga Deepens, Part 7 - YouTube]
    • Went in [to WhizBang Cafe], had a coffee, west bank here, riverside, big mean area, Somalis, all that bad stuff!
    • Had lunch with about 20 Somali guys watching soccer, it was great.
    • The only problems being caused here are FBI counterterrorism
    • I've seen this before. Let off Explosions, create dissention, create a We-THEY / Gang-CounterGang, I saw this in LA: this is Michael Ruppert / Gary Webb all over again. Scare one side, scare the other, create ratline.
    • The only thing is these kids don't know they are organ donors--that's the sad part about all this.
    • MHealth--University of Minnesota Health--not far away
    • These kids are organ donors
  • [Day 189.8. Hillary's Hackers, Awan Brothers Saga Deepens, Part 8 - YouTube]
    • {{ It's part 8 }} I just met with OR nurse who worked with some of the most famous surgeons in transplant tech over the last 35 yrs.
    • We're talking Starsol for the livers, we're talking Chumway who was at the Univ. of Denver who then went on to start the heart transplant at Stanford
    • Starsol went to Univ. of Pittsburg to do the liver transplants, then pancreas came in then lungs and all the other stuff as well as the bone transplants.
    • One thing I learned about bone transplants is that in a lot of break situations you need long pieces of bone ... for what they call struts, to put on either side of the bone and then wrap it with wire. I didn't realize those were so expensive also. Making the body more valuable, making targetting and murder even more valuable
    • I also want to do a shoutout to counterterrorism division at FBI. I think I used too broad a brush. I think it's a small group within the counterterrorism division in the FBI. From what I saw this morning. All the fake terror, fake explosions: this was exactly the same signature of Andrew McCabe in the Portland Christmas Tree bomber case. It was the same thing with the Somali kids with a few mujahadeen to poison the well and then blame it on the Somali kids and let them bear the brunt of this stuff.
    • What I've learned through this process going from place to place, and actually talking to the people where these explosions are and it's ok for Muslim gangs to rape women--that's this rhetoric--this all comes from the counterterrorism division from the FBI. It's jsut a few guys from the CIA that have come over in that program that I talked about with Hillary which is the 1998 Bill Clinton signed Presidential Decision Directive 62 which asked the CIA to come over and help the FBI in their disruption campaign.
    • A lot of what is coming out in the deaths--particularly of the [Hollywood] stars--this person worked in LA and then NY and so forth and knew of teams that worked there--is this use of propophol. So I was right on the money with the use of propophol and why it's a very risky drug. But if you are a convict that's been brought out of jail by the Dept of Justice and I get you papers to say you're a nurse anesthetist, then you can still administer propophol--this is the angel of death scenario. You at 1AM can administer, cause a stroke, cause a coma, nor or set up an organ transplant. Or if you even cause death the body is still worth quite a bit of money.
    • Again this is the use of propophol, the use of nurse anesthetists, I would recommend a national medical check, especially if the person has a revenge-motive that's been implanted in them--if they went to medical school somewhere in PK, Iran or UAE I think we have to look at that. I'm not saying all of them, not even a few; but you only need one at one hospital system to rack up hundreds of bodies, and that's 100s of millions of dollars.
    • I'm going to meet a contributer to the channel. Sorry I'm not answering so many comments, I'm just meeting a lot of people.
    • I may go meet Field O'Connell in Wisconsin if people try to contact him and convince him that that's a good idea. I know a little bit of his work with Able Danger, but I really dont' know a lot about it. But a lot of people have said, "you guys should talk!"
  • [Day 189.8. Hillary's Hackers, Awan Brothers, Saga Deepens Part 8 - YouTube] The Re-Recording, part 8, part 2 or part-redu.2 part 8.2, part 2 {{ just kidding }}
    • Part 8, I'm re-recording because for some reason it disappeared --must've been some good stuff on part 8
    • {{ Donut worry, it reappeared and/or I got it / downloaded it in time, see above }}
    • I had just interviewed a gal who was on an OR team with 2 of the early pioneers of transplants. She had been on those teams for 35 yrs.
    • One of the guys was named Chumway, who goes to Stanford, starts the heart transplant there. He was from Univ. of Denver. A lot of rumors that Univ. of Denver funded a lot of experimentation being a kind of CIA passthru, one of the places they do a lot of medical research, even today--if you want to talk about cord blood with Claude D'estree.
    • This OR nurse--They fly in the Leer jet all together. Donors flying from one location, recipient flying from another, flying in leer jets and the whole thing.
    • At Univ. of Pittsburg is where she worked with Starsol, she said the whole top floor was being rented out. She said it was just Arab oil Sheik after Arab oil Sheik getting transplants.
    • This goes all the way back to 1994. I'm re-recording it because I wanted to get it out there. It looks like people have been trading organs for favors for quite some time.
    • If you watch the next episode about blackberries. I thought about how odd it would be to have a pile of blackberries and 4 laptops. {{ Try to get the model or a description of the blackberries, here are all the models with their release dates }} The reason being is that blackberries haven't really been used in 10 yrs (7) unless you're Hillary / Huma / Obama or in Hillary's State Dept. And the Marine never mentioned anything about any other Samsung or Apple iphone and that's what led me to the blackberry server hypothesis If Hillary is in the SCIF and she's on the 7th floor of the state dept and she or someone else with a blackberry walks out on the veranda, the Blackberry server automatically pings for the blackberries that are part of its server and vice-versa and it automatically syncs. And the nice thing about that is you get all the emails, but no one is forwarding emails [manually, purposefully] to treasuretrove.hillary.com, it just happens automatically, which gives you plausible deniability so you can say 'oops I didn't know it was syncing and taking all this classified information and putting it on the blackberry enterprise server on the laptop--"Geez I must've been hacked". This is the 'oops I did it again / plausible deniability'. It's also a way of avoiding the NSA going through landlines, the more I started thinking and saying 'oh my I might have been where we were on hawkshead drive with the Marine--telling me the blackberries were in that home and the laptops in that home--I might've been a month late for the treasure trove.
    • And maybe not just Huma's 650k emails, but maybe ALL of the blackberry enterprise servers were there.
  • [Day 189.9. Hillary's Hackers, Awan Brothers Saga Deepens, Part 9 - YouTube]
    • One thing I hadn't made clear was the use of Blackberry Enterprise Server. You put it on a laptop and then it finds all the blackberries it should be connected to.
    • The reason this was so good for Hillary is she was on the 7th Floor of the State Dept and then she would go out of these secret meetings.
    • She would take the blackberry into the SCIF which she wasn't allowed to do, but then she'd walk out of the veranda at the State Dept and that would automatically link up to whoever was down below.
    • By moving these laptops and blackberries around in combination--one with Huma, one with Cheryl Mills, one with Valerie Jared, one with Philipe Reines, you could basically collect intelligence out of every meeting in a mobile setting rather than it being a fixed setting, and so if someone--say France wanted to do an oil play in some foreign country, you could use this mobile setup to glean all the intelligence to maximize your political contribution in reciprocal contribution for intercepting that intelligence.
    • The other benefit of not going through wires is that going through encrypted wireless traffic, it would not going to hit the NSA, so the NSA would not have an intercept of that communication.
    • I don't know if I made that clear or not before, but that's why I believe the modus operandi is that's a mobile system.
    • That's why I believe the Awan brothers set that up. It's technically sophisticated, and he's a wireless expert.
    • I also believe Omar IS Abid
    • And that the stepmom believed there were three brothers because Abid was presented as Omar, and I believe there are only 3 brothers, and I believe Omar is Abid, of course they are because their Social Security Number is the same. I also published Imran's Social Security Number. I hope others saw that.
    • {{ Where? #hrcratline on FaceBonk? }}
    • I'm headed to Plum City, WI because that's where Field OConnel is, I've watched about 20 videos for 5-6 minutes so I don't really know exactly why many of my viewers want me to meet him so badly, but I think, well my viewers have to be right so I'm going to do what they suggested. Oops! <> off to plum city
  • [Day 190 - Hillary's Hackers, Awan Brothers Saga Deepens, Part 1 - YouTube] -- AUDIO IS VERY MUFFLED ON THIS ONE
    • I met Field McConnell yesterday he's a pretty cool guy, 3,000 hours of Stick time {{ thx Radiopatriot for the correction }}
    • I'll be using him as an expert in the area of aviation, compared to like John McCain's 3000 hours
    • I really want to focus in on Imran Awan and his use of Blackberries
    • You look around you probably haven't seen a friend use a blackberry in like a decade
    • Famously, in 2008, the president used a blackberry and used it all throughout the presidency at a time when it was considered obsolete and out of fashion, so here we are 10 yrs later.
    • The key here is most of the high profile State Dept people, this group of 19, a lot of them use Blackberries. Obviously Hillary and the President, and Huma, Philippe Reines, the two key assistants as well as Cheryl Mills. I believe Valerie Jared did and I think you're going to see other folks going down the line using blackberries.
    • That's very significant when you throw in the fact that Huma, and the system that was set up for Huma with Anthony Weiner's server also had Blackberry Enterprise Server, and the key excuse that Huma used to for getting the information over to Anthony Weiner's laptop--the 650k emails--was "oh I didn't know it was syncing"
    • Because what happens is anytime you get near a Blackberry server--this laptop lets say--it automatically syncs so it automatically takes all your email off and puts it on there. It's a great way of saying "hey I didn't really forward any information I didn't do anything wrong. It just synced and it was unintentional. So it's good plausible deniability.
    • Why is that important? Because I went to all 12 homes of Imran Awan, I went to the Hawkshead home and talked to the Marine and he said, "yes there was a pile of blackberries and a pile of laptops.'"
    • This is the key system for actually getting this information off onto these laptops.
    • I also wanted to say there was an intelligence service involved. This was NCIS. His wife is in the Navy--active duty. I feel like this is national security. I said I wasn't going to say that. I didn't: I sat on that story for 2 weeks. At this point National Security is such that I think I need to just say that NCIS was involved.
    • We have the FBI involved here, the FBI came and picked up all this stuff. So why Andrew McCabe is saying he's not involved in the investigation is beyond me. NCIS is involved and of course the Capitol Police.
    • These people are all going to be callable into a grand jury.
    • With there's this many people involved it's very difficult to push forward a coverup. I think it's obvious that Andrew McCabe is covering this up, and I think it's going to be a BIG mistake for a lot of people involved.
    • We're down to the SSN number level here. I published detailed histories of all the homes, all the sales, all the people that are involved and the entities, and I'm going to keep publishing SSN unless the Justice Dept wants to move ahead. I have to publish that to a world of investigators, if the FBI does not move ahead with the organization.
    • Two key things that are still not out Gilani who was imprisoned in her home, had her inheritance stolen, her cellphone was hacked on a continual basis, her family [in PK] was threatened with kidnapping. We need to see her picture and the detailed complaint. We know that there's a July 5th police report but we don't have the detailed complaint. A lot will come out about the behavior of the Awans with that.
    • Ramesh S. Jain has been pushed out of this picture; it's going to be Ramesh C. Jain; but we're going to keep drilling down on all the inhabitants of all 12 homes. We're going to get down to the Social Security Level
    • For instance you're going to find this Winfield Family
    • We're going to get down to the geographical location of all 17 of these tickets
    • All the footprints of all the residents are going to be developed in time
    • Ramesh C Jain / Samspson Toqueer SSN is coming
    • Ramesh C Jain has helped us focus on Jatts / Awan comparison recap
    • Tricare Referral service recap -- we're going to drill down on that, spot irregular patterns
    • GOing to keep drilling down on Nanoset, and look at IP sold by Nanoset to different hedge funds on Wall St. for the industrial espionage for drug development
    • Here is the Army, they call the credentially service AAIT, Suriya Begum is involved in the same-named company, drilling down on those involved in AAIT
    • No cooperation from Congress on any of these 31 Dems
    • We're going to keep drilling down on the serial numbers and keep publishing SSNs until the FBI cooperates.
  • [Day 190 - Hillary's Hackers, Awan Brothers Saga Deepens, Part 2 - YouTube]
    • Luke Rosiak from daily caller yesterday published Gulani's complaint that was filed Apr 16 in fairfax county court. That information is out there it does confirm everything I've been saying about the hacking.
    • What I wanted to talk about briefly that I found out yesterday was the University of Denver, how it ties all these ratlines together, the whole story really
    • Joseph Corbel school at Univ. of Denver-- Corbel was one of the key Gladio guys in the Catholic Church. They used the Catholic Church as a front to run Gladio operations
    • Madeline Albreight with his relationship with Thachi, the current leader of Kosovo is the tie to all the organ harvesting.
    • The tie with Claude D'Estree is the tie to all the JTTF, Prowler teams and infiltraiton of the police forces doing these rapes of women [brownstone operations]
    • Again this is the woman saying 'the police team raped me' not me.
    • The bombings. The teams of three and the boston bombing, the Tsarnaevs. Maybe that [picture] isn't Claude D'estree at the feet from the boston bomb, maybe it isn't?
    • [Amb] Chris Hill, the whole I don't want to say the 'murder of Richard Holbrook' but let's say the early demise of Richard Holbrook, and all that State Dept. chicanery is going to be tied to that
    • Pug Winokur with Dyncorp being based in Univ of Denver is going to also tie this whole thing together
    • Andrew McCabe with the JTTF coming out of the University of Denver being informed by all the anti-insurgency [intel] from General Petraeus. And now yesterday, another one. And this one goes back to the area of organ harvesting. Two of the key doctors who start transplant technology in this country Shumway with hearts and Starsol with livers are funded by the CIA out of University of Denver
    • Of course the CIA being centered in Denver, HQ now in Denver, moved over there since about 2008 -- it all comes from one spot
    • We'll just keep going back to the University of Denver. I didn't want to let Claude off the hook too quickly
    • We are going to get back to the kill teams of 3 we're not just going to stop with Mateen or the kids at Ft. Wayne.
    • We're going to keep identifying these as we go along.
    • We're just going to keep identifying the teams of 3 as they are brought into the US, these war kids
    • I sat in the supposedly den of iniquity, the planning center of Al Shabbat for this Somali muslim terrorist group. I sat with all 20 of them. We all watched English soccer. They are all good kids. Anything that happens to those kids is going to be introduced by outside forces.
    • Ok back on the road. I'm going to talk to Johnny Gosch's mother. The first kid that lost in the first Finders case.
  • [Day 190.3. Hillary's Hackers, Awan Brothers Saga Deepens, Part 3 - YouTube]
    • The Stepmother [Gilani]'s complaint was published on thedailycaller.com by Luke Rosiak
    • The photos in that article are of Abid and Jamal Awan. This is the first photo we've seen of these two
    • I would like to find out where those photos came from and then get the rest of the photos.
    • I plan on publishing their SSN and getting more photos so people can see those
    • I visited all 12 homes, I visted the Annandale home as well, there were renters from El Salvador there.
    • He didn't identify themselves as MS13, I wouldn't expect them to
    • But I cannot rule out the possibiity that the 12 home are not just for bringing in technical people for spying and hacking: it could be that because of the distribution of the homes, and because of the involvement of Mahmood the enforcer and the killing of the car dealer, it could be the homes are the drug network type nature--the ones in MD and VA.
    • Ruled that out [for now], Still working on the theory that it's mainly hacking
EDITORS NOTE: Sorry I'm behind, but I'm going as fast as I can. I had to break to do time-sensitive garden stuff, planting trees and shrubs, preparing beds, transplanting veg, filling raised beds with compost, etc. Making a strong push this year for raincatch and set that up with IBC containers, reworking lots of things. Limited energy, etc. Again, sorry I'm lagging behind but George seems to be putting out longer stuff too so it's partly his fault :P
submitted by 911bodysnatchers322 to TruthLeaks [link] [comments]


2017.03.15 13:24 SIThereAndThere J.P. Morgan Early Look at the Market – Wed 3.15.17

PLEASE DO NOT FORWARD THIS DOCUMENT
Find full shit here

Trading Update

Top Headlines for Wednesday

US – fiscal policy

Opinion/Interesting-but-not-immediately-impactful/intra-day boredom reading:

M&A/Strategic Actions

Full catalyst list

  • Thurs Mar 16 – BOJ decision (Wed night/Thurs morning)
  • Thurs Mar 16 – SNB rate decision (Thurs morning)
  • Thurs Mar 16 – Eurozone Feb auto registration data. 3amET.
  • Thurs Mar 16 – Eurozone final Feb CPI. 6amET.
  • Thurs Mar 16 – BOE decision (8amET).
  • Thurs Mar 16 – US housing starts/building permits for Feb. 8:30amET.
  • Thurs Mar 16 – US Philadelphia Fed for Mar. 8:30amET.
  • Thurs Mar 16 – US JOLTs for Jan. 10amET.
  • Thurs Mar 16 – analyst meetings: ALB, OMI, RYAM
  • Thurs Mar 16 – earnings before the open: DG
  • Thurs Mar 16 – earnings after the close: ADBE, VSLR
  • Thurs Mar 16 - Barclays Global Healthcare Conference. Mar 14-16. Miami.
  • Fri Mar 17 - G20 Fin Min/central bank governors meeting Mar 17-18 in Germany
  • Fri Mar 17 – Eurozone trade balance for Jan. 6amET.
  • Fri Mar 17 – Eurozone construction output report for Jan. 6amET.
  • Fri Mar 17 – US IP for Feb. 9:15amET.
  • Fri Mar 17 – Michigan confidence numbers for Mar. 10amET.
  • Fri Mar 17 – earnings before the open: TIF
  • Sat Mar 18 – China Feb property prices (Fri night/Sat morning)
  • Sat Mar 18 - G20 Fin Min/central bank governors meeting Mar 17-18 in Germany
  • Mon Mar 20 – Eurozone labor cost report for Q4. 6amET.
  • Mon Mar 20 - Gorsuch’s Senate confirmation hearing scheduled to begin Mar 20
  • Mon Mar 20 – Fed speakers: Evans
  • Mon Mar 20 – analyst meetings: BNP
  • Tues Mar 21 – RBA Mar rate meeting minutes (Mon night/Tues morning)
  • Tues Mar 21 – Fed speakers: George, Mester
  • Tues Mar 21 – analyst meetings: MAR, MDRX, TEN
  • Tues Mar 21 – earnings before the open: CMCM, FRAN, FSAM, GIS, LE, LEN
  • Tues Mar 21 – earnings after the close: FDX, HQY, NKE, SCS
  • Wed Mar 22 – BOJ minutes from 1/30-31 meeting (Tues night/Wed morning)
  • Wed Mar 22 – US FHFA home prices for Jan. 9amET.
  • Wed Mar 22 – US existing home sales for Feb. 10amET.
  • Wed Mar 22 – analyst meetings: CSTM
  • Wed Mar 22 – earnings before the open: QIWI, WGO
  • Wed Mar 22 – earnings after the close: FIVE, PVH
  • Thurs Mar 23 – ECB publishes economic bulletin. 5amET.
  • Thurs Mar 23 – Yellen speaks at Community Development Conf. 8amET.
  • Thurs Mar 23 – Fed speakers: Yellen, Kashkari
  • Thurs Mar 23 – US new home sales for Feb. 10amET.
  • Thurs Mar 23 – analyst meetings: ARRS
  • Thurs Mar 23 – earnings before the open: ACN, CMC
  • Thurs Mar 23 – earnings after the close: BAS, GME, KBH, MU, SCVL
  • Fri Mar 24 – Eurozone flash PMIs for Mar. 5amET.
  • Fri Mar 24 – Fed speakers: Evans, Bullard
  • Fri Mar 24 – US durable goods for Feb. 8:30amET.
  • Fri Mar 24 – US flash manufacturing PMI for Mar. 9:45amET.
  • Mon Mar 27 – US Dallas Fed manufacturing index for Mar. 10:30amET.
  • Mon Mar 27 – Fed speakers: Evans
  • Mon Mar 27 – earnings after the close: RHT
  • Tues Mar 28 – US advanced goods trade balance for Feb. 8:30amET.
  • Tues Mar 28 – US wholesale inventories for Feb. 8:30amET.
  • Tues Mar 28 – US Case Shiller home price index for Jan. 9amET.
  • Tues Mar 28 – US flash services PMI for Mar. 9:45amET.
  • Tues Mar 28 – US Consumer Confidence for Mar. 10amET.
  • Tues Mar 28 – analyst meetings: CY
  • Tues Mar 28 – earnings before the open: DRI
  • Tues Mar 28 – earnings after the close: SONC
  • Wed Mar 29 – US pending home sales for Feb. 10amET.
  • Wed Mar 29 – analyst meetings: ALK
  • Wed Mar 29 – earnings before the open: PAYX
  • Thurs Mar 30 – US Q4 GDP/PCE revisions
  • Thurs Mar 30 – earnings before the open: SAIC
  • Fri Mar 31 – US personal income/spending/PCE for Feb. 8:30amET.
  • Fri Mar 31 – US Chicago PMI for Mar. 9:45amET.
  • Fri Mar 31 – US Michigan confidence numbers for Mar.
  • Mon Apr 3 – US Markit manufacturing PMI for Mar. 9:45amET.
  • Mon Apr 3 – US manufacturing ISM for Mar. 10amET.
  • Mon Apr 3 – US construction spending for Feb. 10amET.
  • Mon Apr 3 – US auto sales numbers for Mar.
  • Tues Apr 4 – RBA rate decision (Mon night/Tues morning)
  • Tues Apr 4 – US trade balance for Feb. 8:30amET.
  • Tues Apr 4 – US factory orders for Feb. 10amET.
  • Tues Apr 4 – US durable goods for Feb. 10amET.
  • Tues Apr 4 – analyst meetings: XYL
  • Tues Apr 4 – earnings after the close: Hudson’s Bay
  • Wed Apr 5 – US ADP jobs report for Mar. 8:15amET.
  • Wed Apr 5 – US services PMI for Mar. 9:45amET.
  • Wed Apr 5 – US non-manufacturing ISM for Mar. 10amET.
  • Wed Apr 5 – Fed minutes from 3/15 meeting (2pmET)
  • Wed Apr 5 – analyst meetings: Dell, NTAP
  • Wed Apr 5 – earnings before the open: MON, WBA
  • Wed Apr 5 – earnings after the close: BBBY, RECN, YUMC
  • Thurs Apr 6 – India RBI rate decision (5amET)
  • Thurs Apr 6 – ECB meeting minutes (7:30amET)
  • Thurs Apr 6 – earnings before the open: HOFT, KMX, STZ
  • Thurs Apr 6 – earnings after the close: PSMT
  • Fri Apr 7 – US jobs report for Mar. 8:30amET.
  • Fri Apr 7 – US wholesale trade sales/inventories for Feb. 10amET.
  • Fri Apr 7 – US consumer credit for Feb. 3pmET.
  • Mon Apr 10 – US labor market conditions index for Mar. 10amET.
  • Tues Apr 11 – US JOLTs for Feb. 10amET.
  • Wed Apr 12 – US import prices for Mar. 8:30amET.
  • Wed Apr 12 – Bank of Canada rate decision (10amET)
  • Wed Apr 12 – Brazilian central bank rate decision
  • Thurs Apr 13 – US PPI for Mar. 8:30amET.
  • Thurs Apr 13 – US Michigan confidence for Apr. 10amET.
  • Fri Apr 14 – US CPI for Mar. 8:30amET.
  • Fri Apr 14 – US retail sales for Mar. 8:30amET.
  • Fri Apr 14 – US business inventories for Feb. 10amET.
  • Wed Apr 19 – Fed Beige Book (2pmET)
submitted by SIThereAndThere to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]


2017.03.15 13:07 SIThereAndThere J.P. Morgan Early Look at the Market – Wed 3.15.17

J.P. Morgan Early Look at the Market – Wed 3.15.17
PLEASE DO NOT FORWARD THIS DOCUMENT

Trading Update

Calendar for Wed 3/15

Top Headlines for Wednesday

US – fiscal policy

Opinion/Interesting-but-not-immediately-impactful/intra-day boredom reading:

M&A/Strategic Actions

Full catalyst list

  • Thurs Mar 16 – BOJ decision (Wed night/Thurs morning)
  • Thurs Mar 16 – SNB rate decision (Thurs morning)
  • Thurs Mar 16 – Eurozone Feb auto registration data. 3amET.
  • Thurs Mar 16 – Eurozone final Feb CPI. 6amET.
  • Thurs Mar 16 – BOE decision (8amET).
  • Thurs Mar 16 – US housing starts/building permits for Feb. 8:30amET.
  • Thurs Mar 16 – US Philadelphia Fed for Mar. 8:30amET.
  • Thurs Mar 16 – US JOLTs for Jan. 10amET.
  • Thurs Mar 16 – analyst meetings: ALB, OMI, RYAM
  • Thurs Mar 16 – earnings before the open: DG
  • Thurs Mar 16 – earnings after the close: ADBE, VSLR
  • Thurs Mar 16 - Barclays Global Healthcare Conference. Mar 14-16. Miami.
  • Fri Mar 17 - G20 Fin Min/central bank governors meeting Mar 17-18 in Germany
  • Fri Mar 17 – Eurozone trade balance for Jan. 6amET.
  • Fri Mar 17 – Eurozone construction output report for Jan. 6amET.
  • Fri Mar 17 – US IP for Feb. 9:15amET.
  • Fri Mar 17 – Michigan confidence numbers for Mar. 10amET.
  • Fri Mar 17 – earnings before the open: TIF
  • Sat Mar 18 – China Feb property prices (Fri night/Sat morning)
  • Sat Mar 18 - G20 Fin Min/central bank governors meeting Mar 17-18 in Germany
  • Mon Mar 20 – Eurozone labor cost report for Q4. 6amET.
  • Mon Mar 20 - Gorsuch’s Senate confirmation hearing scheduled to begin Mar 20
  • Mon Mar 20 – Fed speakers: Evans
  • Mon Mar 20 – analyst meetings: BNP
  • Tues Mar 21 – RBA Mar rate meeting minutes (Mon night/Tues morning)
  • Tues Mar 21 – Fed speakers: George, Mester
  • Tues Mar 21 – analyst meetings: MAR, MDRX, TEN
  • Tues Mar 21 – earnings before the open: CMCM, FRAN, FSAM, GIS, LE, LEN
  • Tues Mar 21 – earnings after the close: FDX, HQY, NKE, SCS
  • Wed Mar 22 – BOJ minutes from 1/30-31 meeting (Tues night/Wed morning)
  • Wed Mar 22 – US FHFA home prices for Jan. 9amET.
  • Wed Mar 22 – US existing home sales for Feb. 10amET.
  • Wed Mar 22 – analyst meetings: CSTM
  • Wed Mar 22 – earnings before the open: QIWI, WGO
  • Wed Mar 22 – earnings after the close: FIVE, PVH
  • Thurs Mar 23 – ECB publishes economic bulletin. 5amET.
  • Thurs Mar 23 – Yellen speaks at Community Development Conf. 8amET.
  • Thurs Mar 23 – Fed speakers: Yellen, Kashkari
  • Thurs Mar 23 – US new home sales for Feb. 10amET.
  • Thurs Mar 23 – analyst meetings: ARRS
  • Thurs Mar 23 – earnings before the open: ACN, CMC
  • Thurs Mar 23 – earnings after the close: BAS, GME, KBH, MU, SCVL
  • Fri Mar 24 – Eurozone flash PMIs for Mar. 5amET.
  • Fri Mar 24 – Fed speakers: Evans, Bullard
  • Fri Mar 24 – US durable goods for Feb. 8:30amET.
  • Fri Mar 24 – US flash manufacturing PMI for Mar. 9:45amET.
  • Mon Mar 27 – US Dallas Fed manufacturing index for Mar. 10:30amET.
  • Mon Mar 27 – Fed speakers: Evans
  • Mon Mar 27 – earnings after the close: RHT
  • Tues Mar 28 – US advanced goods trade balance for Feb. 8:30amET.
  • Tues Mar 28 – US wholesale inventories for Feb. 8:30amET.
  • Tues Mar 28 – US Case Shiller home price index for Jan. 9amET.
  • Tues Mar 28 – US flash services PMI for Mar. 9:45amET.
  • Tues Mar 28 – US Consumer Confidence for Mar. 10amET.
  • Tues Mar 28 – analyst meetings: CY
  • Tues Mar 28 – earnings before the open: DRI
  • Tues Mar 28 – earnings after the close: SONC
  • Wed Mar 29 – US pending home sales for Feb. 10amET.
  • Wed Mar 29 – analyst meetings: ALK
  • Wed Mar 29 – earnings before the open: PAYX
  • Thurs Mar 30 – US Q4 GDP/PCE revisions
  • Thurs Mar 30 – earnings before the open: SAIC
  • Fri Mar 31 – US personal income/spending/PCE for Feb. 8:30amET.
  • Fri Mar 31 – US Chicago PMI for Mar. 9:45amET.
  • Fri Mar 31 – US Michigan confidence numbers for Mar.
  • Mon Apr 3 – US Markit manufacturing PMI for Mar. 9:45amET.
  • Mon Apr 3 – US manufacturing ISM for Mar. 10amET.
  • Mon Apr 3 – US construction spending for Feb. 10amET.
  • Mon Apr 3 – US auto sales numbers for Mar.
  • Tues Apr 4 – RBA rate decision (Mon night/Tues morning)
  • Tues Apr 4 – US trade balance for Feb. 8:30amET.
  • Tues Apr 4 – US factory orders for Feb. 10amET.
  • Tues Apr 4 – US durable goods for Feb. 10amET.
  • Tues Apr 4 – analyst meetings: XYL
  • Tues Apr 4 – earnings after the close: Hudson’s Bay
  • Wed Apr 5 – US ADP jobs report for Mar. 8:15amET.
  • Wed Apr 5 – US services PMI for Mar. 9:45amET.
  • Wed Apr 5 – US non-manufacturing ISM for Mar. 10amET.
  • Wed Apr 5 – Fed minutes from 3/15 meeting (2pmET)
  • Wed Apr 5 – analyst meetings: Dell, NTAP
  • Wed Apr 5 – earnings before the open: MON, WBA
  • Wed Apr 5 – earnings after the close: BBBY, RECN, YUMC
  • Thurs Apr 6 – India RBI rate decision (5amET)
  • Thurs Apr 6 – ECB meeting minutes (7:30amET)
  • Thurs Apr 6 – earnings before the open: HOFT, KMX, STZ
  • Thurs Apr 6 – earnings after the close: PSMT
  • Fri Apr 7 – US jobs report for Mar. 8:30amET.
  • Fri Apr 7 – US wholesale trade sales/inventories for Feb. 10amET.
  • Fri Apr 7 – US consumer credit for Feb. 3pmET.
  • Mon Apr 10 – US labor market conditions index for Mar. 10amET.
  • Tues Apr 11 – US JOLTs for Feb. 10amET.
  • Wed Apr 12 – US import prices for Mar. 8:30amET.
  • Wed Apr 12 – Bank of Canada rate decision (10amET)
  • Wed Apr 12 – Brazilian central bank rate decision
  • Thurs Apr 13 – US PPI for Mar. 8:30amET.
  • Thurs Apr 13 – US Michigan confidence for Apr. 10amET.
  • Fri Apr 14 – US CPI for Mar. 8:30amET.
  • Fri Apr 14 – US retail sales for Mar. 8:30amET.
  • Fri Apr 14 – US business inventories for Feb. 10amET.
  • Wed Apr 19 – Fed Beige Book (2pmET)
submitted by SIThereAndThere to The_Street [link] [comments]


2017.02.13 14:42 SIThereAndThere **PLEASE DO NOT FORWARD THIS DOCUMENT** -- Early Look at the Market – Mon 2.13.17

View full doc here that's formatted: https://jpst.it/TpWT
Last one got: 4,200+ views (yikes)
Many have asked where these documents were the past week. Pretty simple, faggots from all brigaded this Subreddit. Waited for the shit storm to die off so we can give our normal peeps the 420 411.
Also got my addy script refilled (thank you, competitive insurance plans).
EXTREME VETTING IS STILL IN EFFECT
#STAY WOKE
If you can't afford to lose, you can't afford to win

Morning Levels

• US futures are up 2 points • Asia: Japan Nikkei +0.41%, Japan TOPIX +0.49%, China +0.63%, Hong Kong +0.58%, KOSPI 
+0.17%, Taiwan +0.46%, Australia +0.70% • EuroStoxx 50 +0.52%, FTSE +0.07%, DAX +0.57%, CAC +0.75%, Italy +0.57%, Spain +0.42% • USD (DXY) down 0.03%, EUR down 0.02%, GBP up 0.22%, JPY down 0.45%, CNY Onshore unch, CNH Offshore down 0.17%, AUD up 0.03% • VIX up 4.98% to 11.39 • Gold down 0.23% to $1,230.78 • Silver up 0.12% to $17.96 • Copper up 0.56% to $278.35 • WTI Crude down 0.54% to $53.57 • Brent Crude down 0.48% to $56.43 • Natural Gas down 1.81% to $2.98 • Corn down 0.27% to $3.74/bu • Wheat down 0.67% to $4.46/bu • Treasuries 2yr yields are up ~1.2bps at 1.202%, 10yr yields are up ~2.1bps at 2.429% and 30yr yields are up ~2.2bps at 3.028% • Japan 10yr yields 0.083%, up ~0.7bps on the day • France 10yr yields 1.033%, down ~1.1bps on the day • Italy 10yr yields 2.269%, up ~1.4bps on the day • Spain 10yr yields 1.678%, down ~0.2bps on the day • Germany 10yr yields 0.325%, up ~1.0bps on the day

Trading Update

• Market update – there isn’t too much to mention on the macro front, esp. from the 
perspective of US equities. The main headlines out of Washington concerned potential White House staff shakeups w/Michael Flynn appearing esp. at risk. Economic and company-specific headlines were relatively sparse. North Korea fired a missile Sat night but it wasn’t of intercontinental-range (and thus isn’t disrupting financial markets) while the Abe/Thy God-Emperor Trump summit was most notable for what didn’t happen (there was no material rhetoric around trade, FX, or defense spending). • Calendar for Mon Feb 13 – the only major events on 2/13 are earnings-related (FDC and TEVA pre-open and ACGL, CSOD, DDR, OMF, RNG, and VNO after the close). Also Thy God-Emperor Trump will be hosting Canadian PM Trudeau at the White House and Mnuchin could be confirmed as Treasury Sec. as soon as Mon night. • FX – the DXY is flattish overall. The JPY is down ~45-50bp after the Abe/Thy God-Emperor Trump summit ended w/o any contentious rhetoric around trade or FX.
• Eurozone equities – the major indices are trading up ~35-50bp. Gains are broad but autos, 
basic resources, chemicals, and media are outperforming while banks, telecoms, and retail underperform. Stada is rallying after receiving two takeout bids. • Asia – stocks gained across the board in Asia: Japan (TPX +0.49%, NKY +0.41%), HK (Hang Seng +0.58%, HSCEI +1.31%), mainland China (SHCOMP +0.63%, Shenzhen +0.74%, CSI 300 +0.67%), Taiwan (TAIEX +0.46%), Korea (KOSPI +0.17%), Australia (ASX 200 +0.7%), and India (up 5-10bp for the major indices). There weren’t too many major headlines. Japan’s GDP was a touch below the St. China’s PBOC resumed issuing reverse repos following a 6-day halt. Media reports in China suggest the CNY could stabilize around current levels. • HK/China – the major indices traded well in HK and on the mainland. Major news was relatively quiet. Within the Hang Seng, telecoms and fins outperformed while real estate, consumer discretionary, and utilities lagged. China Life, AAC Tech, China Resources Power, ICBC, Bank of China, Belle Int’l, and HKEX all outperformed while Li & Fung, Sands China, Link REIT, Sino Land, and China Mengniu Dairy underperformed. • Japan - Risk-on sentiment continued with a Cyclical-led rally taking hold on firm commodity prices and USDJPY's tread higher towards the 114 handle as Abe/Thy God-Emperor Trump meetings ended without any conflict on trade or currency issues. Commodity related names led the charge: Oil plays Mining +4.5% and Oil +2.6% rallied on Fri's IEA production data of 90% compliance to agreed cuts, along with Inpex's strong earnings results. Copper-sensitives (SMM +2.7%, Dowa +4.2%, Mit Materials +5.7%) were strong after Copper's +5% move on BHP Escondida's strike and as the stand-off between FCX and Indonesia continued. There was also an interesting rotation within the rest of the Cyclical/Beta space with lagging Autos +0.7%, Shippers +1.5%, Elec Appliance +0.9% extending gains, while some recent outperformers (Machinery, Chems...) appeared to be getting unwound - of note, popular 'Thy God-Emperor Trump' proxy trades like Softbank -1.5%, Fanuc -0.2%, Keyence -0.7% were unable to break higher. In earnings: 85% of cos in TPX have reported with a 70% positive surprise ratio. Today - Daifuku +8.4%, Nabtesco +6.3% jumped after solid earnings while Iida -8.5%, Lion - 7.6% traded lower on their inline results. Toshiba +5% edged higher ahead of its earnings tomorrow. • US macro update: the backdrop for the SPX remains largely unchanged. Current earnings and growth trends alone could result in SPX EPS of ~$127 in ’17 and ~$135-137 in ’18 w/o anything happening in Washington (recall the nominal growth improvement commenced prior to the election on 11/8). On these numbers the PE for ’17 is rich at ~18.25x but falls to ~17x using the ~$136 assumption for ’18. Full implementation of the Thy God-Emperor Trump/Ryan fiscal agenda could add as much as $8-12 to SPX EPS and using ~$145 in ’18 would bring the current PE to a reasonable ~16x. However, it is by no means a given that Thy God-Emperor Trump/Ryan can move their blueprint through the Senate and in fact risks are rising for an extended period of gridlock as Republicans grapple with their ACA repeal/replace pledge while tax/spending plans run into enormous fiscal (limited balance sheet capacity), logistical (Senate math), and ideological (deficit hawk resistance) obstacles.

Top Headlines for Monday

• Thy God-Emperor Trump White House shakeup possible w/Flynn’s role as Nat. Sec. Advisor looking 
increasingly tenuous – the White House is reviewing whether to retain Flynn as National Security Advisor amid a metastasizing scandal involving contacts w/Russian officials over US sanctions prior to Thy God-Emperor Trump’s inauguration. Some within the White House are hoping Flynn resigns on his own (http://on.wsj.com/2kBu3gr). The NYT talks about “turmoil” within the National Security Council, not only b/c of Flynn’s Russia controversy but also due to his poor management skills and a lack of coordination w/the White House and other agencies (like State, Defense, the CIA, etc.). The Times talks about NSC employees waking up in the morning and struggling to construct a foreign policy based on Thy God-Emperor Trump’s overnight twitter postings (http://nyti.ms/2l66Gz6). o Thy God-Emperor Trump considering staff shakeup – while Michael Flynn is most at risk, Thy God-Emperor Trump is apparently considering other changes as well. Thy God-Emperor Trump has told several people he is particularly displeased w/Flynn. Spicer and Priebus also could be on thin ice. Politico. http://politi.co/2lHkOfY o Reince Priebus comes under scrutiny from Thy God-Emperor Trump friend – a longtime friend of Thy God-Emperor Trump who met w/him over the weekend in Florida issued a public criticism of Reince Priebus and suggested the White House may not stabilize until a new chief of staff has been installed. Christopher Ruddy, the chief executive of Newsmax Media, said Priebus was in over his head (http://nyti.ms/2kJP0s9). According to a Politico article, Kellyanne Conway is angling to become the next chief of staff (http://politi.co/2kzElxP). • Company-specific news update for Mon morning – according to Reuters, China’s Sinochem is in early talks to buy a stake in commodities trader Noble Group (http://reut.rs/2l6s2wu). The FT had an article discussing China’s Dalian Wanda Group holding talks to buy Deutsche Bank’s Postbank unit although Dalian has since come out and denied this report (http://reut.rs/2lHmJB1). Stada is spiking in European trading after the co said it has received two takeover bids and Co-Operative Bank has put itself up for sale. ON reported earnings Sun afternoon and results/guidance were nicely ahead of the St and Digitimes says MU is considering a sale of its NOR assets (http://bit.ly/2lAEEg0). The NY Post says AMZN is considering an HBO-like premium video channel to house its growing library of proprietary content (http://nyp.st/2l6nczo). VZ will introduce an unlimited data plan Mon, its first in more than five years; the move is a change in direction for VZ and reflects escalating competition in the industry (Reuters http://reut.rs/2l9pjlF). • Eco data recap for Mon morning – the only major numbers came out of Japan w/Q4 GDP coming in +1% (about inline w/the St +1.1%). The GDP result was a disappointment vs. the JPMorgan forecast of +2% (http://bit.ly/2kYHA2J). The European Commission raised its growth forecasts for ’17 and ’18 for the EU (from +1.5% to +1.6% for ’17 and from +1.7% to +1.8% for ’18). • China is considering a “radical” plan to cut smog in the country – the gov’t could force more steel and aluminum output cuts, ban coal from one of the top ports, and shutter certain fertilizer and drug plants – Reuters http://reut.rs/2kBDbBH • China – the yuan will likely stabilize around current levels according to an article in Xinhua as Chinese growth improves and its relationship w/the Thy God-Emperor Trump administration advances - http://bit.ly/2kIt5S0 • China – the PBOC has resumed issuing reverse repos following a 6-day halt – Bloomberg http://bloom.bg/2kBKjOw Top Headlines from the Weekend • Thy God-Emperor Trump’s foreign policy is proving to be a lot less radical than feared – both the NYT (http://nyti.ms/2l0fc2H) and WSJ (http://on.wsj.com/2l3kuKW) note how Thy God-Emperor Trump is quietly adopting some of the major decades-old tenets of US foreign policy in a reversal from his campaign rhetoric. Thy God-Emperor Trump has backed away from unorthodox views on matters including China/Taiwan, Israel/settlements, Iran, NATO, and other large foreign policy issues. Despite fears of a disruptive foreign policy Thy God-Emperor Trump is proving to be quite quotidian. • North Korea – North Korea fired a ballistic missile towards the sea off its eastern coast Sat night (ET) although it wasn’t of intercontinental-range (which would have been a much more provocative step). The US military said the missile didn’t pose a threat to North America. Thy God-Emperor Trump and Japanese PM Abe held a hastily arranged joint appearance in response; Abe called the launch “absolutely intolerable” while Thy God-Emperor Trump didn’t address the topic directly (although he pledged US support for Japan). NYT. http://nyti.ms/2kGRKXn • NATO expansion – Thy God-Emperor Trump is leaning towards supporting Montenegro’s bid to join NATO despite objections from Russia – WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2lBK4E4 • Gary Cohn the subject of two favorable profiles this weekend, including the NYT (“Thy God-Emperor Trump’s economic cabinet is mostly bare. This man fills the void” http://nyti.ms/2l7Fxvj) and WSJ (“Gary Cohn has emerged as an economic-policy powerhouse in Thy God-Emperor Trump administration” http://on.wsj.com/2lCID7C). Cohn is the driver behind pretty much every aspect of White House economic and tax policy – he is called into the Oval Office up to five times per day for impromptu meetings w/Thy God-Emperor Trump and the two converse on other occasions too. Cohn is tasked w/tax reform (corporate and individual), infrastructure spending (Cohn is in favor of public/private partnerships), and deregulation. Cohn also has been given ACA repeal/replace. o Goldman’s Jim Donovan is under consideration for the #2 job at Treasury although some in the White House are growing concerned about having “too many Goldman people” – Bloomberg http://bloom.bg/2kGNNC8 o Thy God-Emperor Trump plans to nominate David Malpass as US Treasury undersecretary for int’l affairs – Bloomberg http://bloom.bg/2lyoi7B o The most dangerous man in Thy God-Emperor Trump’s universe is a person who usually doesn’t receive much attention: Peter Navarro. Politico discusses how Navarro “could lead us into a global depression – or worse”. Politico. http://politi.co/2kHPxec • Republicans worry about elevated expectations – some within the party are nervous that expectations have become too elevated and that the agenda is now too crowded with politically difficult objectives. “There’s no way we can do all these issues. Think about it. We have two appropriations to do before Sept. 30, plus tax reform, the wall, infrastructure. Any two would be Herculean. My idea that I’ve shared with a few people is we’ve got to prioritize these things. If you only get seven big things half-way down the road, that’s nothing … so you’ve got to prioritize”. Healthcare is still a huge obstacle as ACA repeal/replace needs to happen before anything on the fiscal agenda gets addressed (but the party has yet to coalesce around a healthcare strategy). The Hill http://bit.ly/2kXfgAj • A Tax Overhaul Would Be Great in Theory. Here’s Why It’s So Hard in Practice – the NYT article doesn’t contain any incremental information but it explains why tax reform will be much more complicated to effectuate than markets seem to realize. http://nyti.ms/2kuJw1P • Why Thy God-Emperor Trump's tax reform could still be a long time coming – the article doesn’t contain any incremental information but it notes that tax reform will take a lot longer than the market appreciates. CNBC. http://cnb.cx/2kQR8Ne • “Thy God-Emperor Trump Trade” stalls – inflation expectations surged in the aftermath of 11/8 although have stalled out lately as investors question when fiscal policy changes will actually happen and the ultimate impact of tax reform and infrastructure spending. Meanwhile investors are quietly dialing back expectations around the pace of Fed tightening. WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2kWHNUk • Fed’s Fischer spoke Sat morning in the UK and said there was sig. uncertainty about the outlook for US fiscal policy under Thy God-Emperor Trump but promised to be strict in hitting the dual mandates of full employment and 2% inflation. Fischer also said bank capital requirements shouldn’t be significantly reduced (he doesn’t think Dodd-Frank will be repealed wholly although adjustments to it are possible). Reuters http://reut.rs/2kDLUGh • Fed – Daniel Tarulo, who had been unofficially the Fed’s point man on bank regulation, announced Fri afternoon (at 1:30pmET) that he would resign around Apr 5. The move was largely expected but Tarullo’s departure will leave three vacant seats on the Fed board and thus represents an opportunity for Thy God-Emperor Trump to immediately leave his imprint on monetary
5 policy. According to media reports, David Nason, an executive at GE, has emerged as the leading candidate for the vice chair in charge of bank oversight. WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2kAXAcS • ECB forward guidance change? A Bloomberg article discusses a push by some at the ECB to moderate the forward guidance language and remove pledges of cutting rates to even lower levels. Given the improved Eurozone growth/inflation figures there is a concern that the current forward guidance could result in a loss of credibility for the ECB – Bloomberg http://bloom.bg/2kl1DXo Calendar of events to watch for the Week of Mon 2/13 • The big focus this week will be on central banks w/two days of Yellen testimony (Senate Tues 2/14 and House Wed 2/15) and ECB meeting minutes (Thurs 2/16). While markets are waiting for some answers on Fed-related matters, the near-term policy outlook isn’t very controversial and thus the Yellen testimony may not be enormously impactful (despite some talk about a Mar hike this looks unlikely at the moment given the present state of economic data). That being said Yellen will probably touch on a host of subjects during the testimony, including the outlook for growth/inflation, the path for near-term tightening (the “dots” are guiding for three hikes in 2017), balance sheet policies, the regulatory outlook (what does Yellen think about Thy God-Emperor Trump’s Dodd-Frank order?), etc. As for the ECB, officials have been vocal lately in pushing back against taper talk but it will be interesting to see if that sentiment comes through in the minutes. In addition to central banks, investors will also be looking at the US inflation numbers (PPI Tues 2/14 and CPI Wed 2/15), US retail sales (Wed 2/15), Netanyahu’s visit to the White House (Wed 2/15), and some Jan-end earnings reports (A Tues night 2/14; ADI Wed morning 2/15; AMAT, CSCO, NTAP, and SNPS after the close Wed 2/15; CPB and DE Fri morning 2/17). • Calendar for Tues Feb 14 – the big events include China CPI/PPI for Jan (Mon night/Tues morning), Eurozone IP/GDP data (5amET), the US PPI (8:30amET), Yellen’s testimony before the Senate, and earnings (CS, DISCA, DPS, MLM, TAP, TMUS, and WSO pre-open and A, CALX, ESRX, FOSL, HUBS, and VDSI after the close). • Calendar for Wed Feb 15 – the focus will be on the US eco data (Feb Empire, Jan CPI, Jan retail sales all at 8:30amET, Jan IP at 9:15amET, and the Feb NAHB housing market index at 10amET), Yellen’s testimony before the House, Netanyahu’s visit to the White House, and earnings (ADI, Danone, Heineken, HLT, HUN, OZM, PEP, SODA, USFD, and WYN pre-open and AMAT, CAR, BS, CF, CSCO, EQIX, GDDY, HAWK, KHC, MAR, MOH, NTAP, QTWO, SNPS, SSNC, TIVO, TRIP, and WMB after the close). • Calendar for Thurs Feb 16 – the focus will be on the ECB meeting minutes (7:30amET), US eco data (Jan housing starts/building permits and Feb Philadelphia Fed at 8:30amET), and earnings (ALXN, AVP, CAB, CHTR, DF, GNC, H, LH, MGM, TIME, WM, and ZTS pre-open and ANET, DLR, MDRX, RSG, VECO, and WMBD after the close). • Calendar for Fri Feb 17 – the only events on this day are earnings-related (Allianz, BLMN, CPB, CTB, DE, FLR, LPNT, MCO, SJM, VFC, and WBC pre-open).

Catalysts for 2017 – big events to watch for 2017 (preliminary list – additional events likely to be

added)
• Yellen testimony – Yellen will provide semiannual monetary testimony Tues 2/14 and Wed 
2/15. • Israel/US – Netanyahu to visit the US on Wed Feb 15. • ECB minutes – minutes from the last ECB meeting will hit Thurs 2/16. • Eurogroup meeting/Greece – many think the Feb 20 Eurogroup meeting may be one of the last opportunities to resolve Greece (as afterwards governments will turn their focus to elections in the Netherlands, France, Germany, and possibly Italy). • Retailers quantify impact of border adjustment – the Jan-end retail earnings season kicks off Tues morning 2/21 w/results due from HD, M, and WMT (note that Mon 2/20 is a holiday in the US). It will be interesting to hear the extent to which mgmt. teams outline the impact of the GOP border tax proposal. • Fed minutes - FOMC minutes from 2/1 meeting Wed 2/22. 2pmET. • Thy God-Emperor Trump to address joint session of Congress – Feb 28. • ECB – the ECB meeting decision will hit Thurs 3/9. • US jobs – the Jan jobs report will hit Fri Mar 10. • Netherlands will have national elections Mar 15. • Fed meeting – first press conf./dot plot decision of the year is Mar 15. • G20 Fin Min/central bank governors meeting Mar 17-18 in Germany. • China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) usually take place in mid-Mar; the gov’t will formally publish its 2017 economic objectives at this event. • US debt ceiling - the debt limit has been suspended since late ’15 but is due to be reinstated on Mar 16, 2017 (although the Treasury will likely be able to extend this date by a couple of months at least). • EU Leaders Summit Mar 25 – this could be the forum at which the UK formally triggers Article 50 (although recent media reports suggest the triggering could come in mid-Mar). • WFC’s “living will” – WFC will resubmit its living will in the Mar timeframe. Normally this wouldn’t be a major event but if WFC’s living will is deemed inadequate again the Fed could raise the company’s capital requirements. • Bank stress tests – US bank stress tests to be submitted to regulators by Apr 5 • France first-round presidential election Apr 23 (run-off is May 7). • US Treasury publishes semi-annual currency report around Apr timeframe (investors will watch China’s designation closely and if it gets labeled a currency manipulator). • US gov’t funding – current spending legislation will keep the gov’t funding until Apr 28 • OPEC – the next formal OPEC summit is May 25 • NATO summit – NATO will hold a summit in May; Montenegro is expected to become a NATO member at this event; Thy God-Emperor Trump will likely attend. • G7 Leaders Summit May 26-27 in Italy. • US financial regulatory review – the Treasury will present recommendations to Thy God-Emperor Trump around the end of May/start of June on ways to ease financial regulations. • Italy – new elections could take place in the June timeframe. • OPEC – the current OPEC supply agreement is due to expire at the end of June. • Russia – European sanctions against Russia are due to expire in June. Given the likely outcome of the French election, they will prob. not be extended (http://on.wsj.com/2iHEYUB). • China/MSCI - MSCI will announce the result of the China A shares inclusion proposal as part of the 2017 Market Classification Review in June 2017. • US bank stress tests – the Fed will publish bank stress test results in June. • G20 Leaders Summit Jul 7-8 2017 in Germany. • Greece – the country faces a bond maturity on Jul 17. • ECB meeting/press conf. Jul 20 – the ECB has said it will discuss potential bond tapering around the middle of 2017. • German elections – the next German elections will be held between Aug and Oct 2017. • Chinese politics – China’s 19th National Congress will take place in the fall of 2017 and will set the country’s political path for the next five years.

Full catalyst list

 • Mon Feb 13 – Thy God-Emperor Trump to host Canadian PM Trudeau at the White House • Mon Feb 13 – GWW Jan sales • Mon Feb 13 – earnings before the open: FDC, HCP, LNCE, ON, TEVA, VSM, WEX • Mon Feb 13 – earnings after the close: ACGL, CHGG, CSOD, DDR, OMF, PDFS, RNG, VNO 
• Tues Feb 14 – China CPI/PPI for Jan. Mon night/Tues morning. • Tues Feb 14 – Germany Q4 GDP. 2amET. • Tues Feb 14 – Germany ZEW survey for Feb. 5amET. • Tues Feb 14 – Eurozone Dec IP. 5amET. • Tues Feb 14 – Eurozone Q4 GDP. 5amET. • Tues Feb 14 – US PPI for Jan. 8:30amET. • Tues Feb 14 – Yellen semi-annual testimony • Tues Feb 14 – earnings before the open: AYR, CS, DISCA, DPS, FLIR, IPGP, MGI, MLM, Rolls- 
Royce, TAP, TMUS, TRU, WSO • Tues Feb 14 – earnings after the close: A, BYD, CALX, CZR, DIOD, ESRX, FOSL, HUBS, LC, LXFT, RPXC, VDSI • Tues Feb 14 – Goldman Tech/Internet Conf. Feb 14-16. San Francisco.
• Wed Feb 15 – Eurozone Dec trade balance. 5amET. • Wed Feb 15 – US Empire Manufacturing for Feb. 8:30amET. • Wed Feb 15 – US CPI for Jan. 8:30amET. • Wed Feb 15 – US retail sales for Jan. 8:30amET. • Wed Feb 15 – US industrial production for Jan. 9:15amET. • Wed Feb 15 – US NAHB housing market index for Feb. 10amET. • Wed Feb 15 – Yellen semi-annual testimony • Wed Feb 15 - Netanyahu to visit the US on Feb 15. • Wed Feb 15 – earnings before the open: ADI, Air Liquide, Akzo Nobel, ANGI, Danone, FUN, 
Heineken, HLT, HUN, OZM, PEP, PLAB, SHOP, SODA, SONS, USFD, WIX, WYN
20 • Wed Feb 15 – earnings after the close: AMAT, CAR, CBS, CC, CF, CSCO, DENN, EQIX, GDDY, GRPN, HAWK, KHC, MAR, MOH, NLY, NTAP, NTES, PHH, QTWO, SNPS, SPWR, SRCL, SSNC, TIVO, TRIP, WMB • Wed Feb 15 - Goldman Tech/Internet Conf. Feb 14-16. San Francisco. • Wed Feb 15 – Leerink Partners Global Healthcare Conf. Feb 15-16. NYC.
• Thurs Feb 16 – Eurozone auto registrations for Jan. • Thurs Feb 16 – ECB meeting minutes. 7:30amET. • Thurs Feb 16 – US housing starts/building permits for Jan. 8:30amET. • Thurs Feb 16 – US Philadelphia Fed for Feb. 8:30amET. • Thurs Feb 16 – analyst meetings: WEN • Thurs Feb 16 – earnings before the open: ALXN, AVP, CAB, Cap Gemini, CHTR, CRAI, DF, 
DUK, EPAM, GNC, H, LH, MGM, Nestle, ONDK, Schneider Electric, TIME, WM, ZTS • Thurs Feb 16 – earnings after the close: ANET, BCOV, CGNX, DLR, FIVN, KEYS, MDRX, RSG, TMST, VECO, WBMD • Thurs Feb 16 - Goldman Tech/Internet Conf. Feb 14-16. San Francisco. • Thurs Feb 16 - Leerink Partners Global Healthcare Conf. Feb 15-16. NYC.
• Fri Feb 17 – analyst meetings: HAS • Fri Feb 17 – earnings before the open: AAN, Allianz, B, BLMN, Bombardier, CPB, CTB, DE, 
FLR, LPNT, MCO, SJM, TYPE, VFC, WBC
• Mon Feb 20 – US markets closed for Washington’s birthday • Mon Feb 20 – US consumer confidence for Feb. 10amET. • Mon Feb 20 – CAGNY conf. Feb 20-24. Boca Raton, FL. 
• Tues Feb 21 – Eurozone flash manufacturing/services PMI for Feb. 4amET. • Tues Feb 21 – US flash manufacturing PMI for Feb. 9:45amET. • Tues Feb 21 – analyst meetings: UPS • Tues Feb 21 – earnings before the open: AER, BHP, GPC, DAKT, HSBC, ECL, HD, M, MDR, 
MDT, SAH, SNI, TVPT, VPG, WLK, WMT • Tues Feb 21 – earnings after the close: NEM, WCN, XPO • Tues Feb 21 - CAGNY conf. Feb 20-24. Boca Raton, FL.
• Wed Feb 22 – Germany IFO for Feb. 4amET. • Wed Feb 22 – Eurozone CPI for Jan. 5amET. • Wed Feb 22 – US existing home sales for Jan. 10amET. • Wed Feb 22 – FOMC minutes from 2/1 meeting. 2pmET. • Wed Feb 22 – earnings before the open: Airbus, Bayer, EV, GRMN, HFC, HSNI, HST, LAMR, 
Lloyds Banking Group, TPH • Wed Feb 22 – earnings after the close: CAKE, CLR, EVTC, LB, PSA, SQ, TROX • Wed Feb 22 - CAGNY conf. Feb 20-24. Boca Raton, FL.
• Thurs Feb 23 – US home price purchase index for Q4. 9amET. • Thurs Feb 23 – US flash services PMI for Feb. 9:45amET. • Thurs Feb 23 – earnings before the open: Aixtron, ANSS, AXA, BAE Systems, Barclays, British 
American Tobacco, BSFT, COMM, DFT, Glencore, Henkel, HRL, KSS, Swiss Re, W • Thurs Feb 23 – earnings after the close: AAOI, GPS, HLF, INTU, JWN, OLED, RMAX, TWOU • Thurs Feb 23 - CAGNY conf. Feb 20-24. Boca Raton, FL.
21 • Fri Feb 24 – US new home sales for Jan. 10amET. • Fri Feb 24 – US Michigan sentiment for Feb. 10amET. • Fri Feb 24 – earnings before the open: BASF, HSC, IAG, JCP, KBR, RBS, Standard Chartered, William Hill • Fri Feb 24 - CAGNY conf. Feb 20-24. Boca Raton, FL.
• Sat Feb 25 – Berkshire reports Q4/’16 earnings and Buffett publishes his annual letter 
• Mon Feb 27 – China Jan industrial profits. Sun night/Mon morning. • Mon Feb 27 – Eurozone M3 money supply for Jan. 4amET. • Mon Feb 27 – Eurozone confidence measures for Feb. 5amET. • Mon Feb 27 – US durable goods for Jan. 8:30amET. • Mon Feb 27 – US pending home sales for Jan. 10amET. • Mon Feb 27 – US Dallas Fed Survey for Feb. 10:30amET. • Mon Feb 27 – earnings before the open: HZNP • Mon Feb 27 – earnings after the close: CST, FTR, PODD • Mon Feb 27 – Mobile World Congress. Feb 27-Mar 2. Barcelona. 
• Tues Feb 28 – Eurozone CPI for Feb. 5amET. • Tues Feb 28 – US Q4 GDP/PCE revisions. 8:30amET. • Tues Feb 28 – US advanced goods trade balance for Jan. 8:30amET. • Tues Feb 28 – US Case-Schiller Dec home price update for Dec. • Tues Feb 28 – US Chicago PMI for Feb. 9:45amET. • Tues Feb 28 – US confidence measures for Feb. 10amET. • Tues Feb 28 – earnings before the open: AZO, Bank of Nova Scotia, BMO, NRG, QVCA, STAY, 
TGT, VRX • Tues Feb 28 - Mobile World Congress. Feb 27-Mar 2. Barcelona.
• Wed Mar 1 – China NBS non-manufacturing/manufacturing PMI for Feb (Tues night/Wed 
morning) • Wed Mar 1 – Eurozone manufacturing PMI fro Feb. 4amET. • Wed Mar 1 – US personal income/spending and PCE for Jan. 8:30amET. • Wed Mar 1 – US Markit manufacturing PMI for Feb. 9:45amET. • Wed Mar 1 – US manufacturing ISM for Feb. 10amET. • Wed Mar 1 – US construction spending for Jan. 10amET. • Wed Mar 1 – US auto sales for Jan. • Wed Mar 1 – US Fed Beige Book. 2pmET. • Wed Mar 1 - Mobile World Congress. Feb 27-Mar 2. Barcelona.
• Thurs Mar 2 – Eurozone PPI/UR for Jan. 5amET. • Thurs Mar 2 - Mobile World Congress. Feb 27-Mar 2. Barcelona. 
• Fri Mar 3 – China Caixin services PMI for Feb (Thurs night/Fri morning) • Fri Mar 3 – Eurozone services PMIs for Feb. 4amET. • Fri Mar 3 – Eurozone retail sales for Jan. 5amET. • Fri Mar 3 – US Markit services PMI for Feb. 9:45amET. • Fri Mar 3 – US non-manufacturing ISM for Feb. 10amET. 
• Mon Mar 6 – US factory orders for Jan. 10amET. • Mon Mar 6 – US durable goods orders for Jan. 10amET. 
• Tues Mar 7 – China FX reserve numbers for Feb. Mon night/Tues morning. • Tues Mar 7 – US trade balance for Jan. 8:30amET. • Tues Mar 7 – US consumer credit for Jan. 3pmET. 
• Wed Mar 8 – US ADP jobs report for Feb. 8:15amET. • Wed Mar 8 – US Q4 unit labor costs/productivity. 8:30amET. • Wed Mar 8 – US wholesale inventories/trade sales for Jan. 10amET. 
• Thurs Mar 9 – ECB decision; 7:45amET statement, 8:30amET press conf. • Thurs Mar 9 – US import prices for Feb. 8:30amET. • Thurs Mar 9 – US household net worth update for Q4. 12pmET. 
• Fri Mar 10 – US jobs report for Feb. 8:30amET. 
• Tues Mar 14 – US PPI for Feb. 8:30amET. 
• Wed Mar 15 – US Empire Manufacturing for Mar. 8:30amET. • Wed Mar 15 – US CPI for Feb. 8:30amET. • Wed Mar 15 – US retail sales for Feb. 8:30amET. • Wed Mar 15 – US NAHB housing index for Mar. 10amET. • Wed Mar 15 – FOMC decision; 2pmET statement/dots, 2:30pmET press conf. 
• Thurs Mar 16 – US housing starts/building permits for Feb. 8:30amET. • Thurs Mar 16 – US Philadelphia Fed for Mar. 8:30amET. • Thurs Mar 16 – US JOLTs for Jan. 10amET. 
• Fri Mar 17 – US IP for Feb. 9:15amET. • Fri Mar 17 – Michigan confidence numbers for Mar. 10amET. 
• Wed Mar 22 – US FHFA home prices for Jan. 9amET. • Wed Mar 22 – US existing home sales for Feb. 10amET. 
• Thurs Mar 23 – US new home sales for Feb. 10amET. 
• Fri Mar 24 – US durable goods for Feb. 8:30amET. • Fri Mar 24 – US flash manufacturing PMI for Mar. 9:45amET. 
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2014.11.10 20:53 tempbpc A (budget friendly) desktop for work and play.

What will you be doing with this PC? Be as specific as possible, and include specific games or programs you will be using.
I need a system that is optimized for a decent amount of graphics work. Hardware acceleration, when available, is more desirable than not I think.
Several Adobe programs from the CS6 collection (Photoshop, After Effects, Premier) as well as Lightroom 5. Sony Vegas 13.
For both hobby purposes and occasional jobs, I need to be able to edit and render out 1920 and 1080 video files (with effects, transitions, etc) fairly quickly and smoothly (and not overheat my computer while doing so). I don't mind if I can't browse the internet easily or do much else while the computer is rendering a video though. I only need enough processing and graphics power to get the jobs done well. Video work isn't something I do a great deal of these days but I'd like to more and need parts that will hold up over time.
Photo editing doesn't put nearly as much strain on the system resources but it is something I do very often and need to be able to do so without noticeable lagging or unresponsiveness from Lightroom and Photoshop. I use Lightroom more often though.
A dedicated graphics card that supports at least a 1920x1080 monitor is desirable.
Games: GTA 4, Skyrim, Saints Row 4, Battlefield 3, Watch Dogs, Bioshock Infinite, Dishonered, and L.A. Noire. It'd like to be able to play GTA V eventually too but, again, not at full settings.
What is your maximum budget before rebates/shipping/taxes?
When do you plan on building/buying the PC? Note: beyond a week or two from today means any build you receive will be out of date when you want to buy.
What, exactly, do you need included in the budget? (ToweOS/monitokeyboard/mouse/etc)
Which country (and state/province) will you be purchasing the parts in? If you're in US, do you have access to a Microcenter location?
If reusing any parts (including monitor(s)/keyboard/mouse/etc), what parts will you be reusing? Brands and models are appreciated.
Will you be overclocking? If yes, are you interested in overclocking right away, or down the line? CPU and/or GPU?
Are there any specific features or items you want/need in the build? (ex: SSD, large amount of storage or a RAID setup, CUDA or OpenCL support, etc)
Do you have any specific case preferences (Size like ITX/microATX/mid-towefull-tower, styles, colors, window or not, LED lighting, etc), or a particular color theme preference for the components?
HOWEVER, I do want something reasonably quiet and/or good with ventilation/heat dissipation.
Do you need a copy of Windows 7 or 8.1 included in the budget? If you do need one included, do you have a preference for one or the other?
Extra info or particulars:
This is my first time building but I'm pretty damn tech savvy for a non-programmer. Maintenance won't be an issue but the less time I have to spend fiddling with drivers and replacing parts the better. It's going to be my work machine primarily.
Thanks for your help in advance!
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2013.11.09 23:19 tabledresser [Table] IAmA: I’m Joe Kwon, cello player for the Avett Brothers. AMA!

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Date: 2013-11-09
Link to submission (Has self-text)
Questions Answers
What made you guys decide to work with Chris Cornell? And most importantly, when does the Avett Death Metal album drop?? Scott: Simply put, we are huge fans of each other.
Joe: Avett Death Metal Christmas 2666.
You're playing three nights in a row at the opera house in St. Louis. Can we look forward to multi-night runs in other cities? Do you prefer that to the big arena shows? Scott: You can look forward more multi night performances. There are just too many songs to play in one night.
Who smells best in the band? What do they smell like? I smell the best! I smell like laundry detergent or hair product.
Who would win in a fight to the death, Bob or 4 bear cubs? Bob would win because he would just nurture them to love him.
Favorite song to play live?? Hmmm, toss up between If It's the Beaches and Pretend Love at the moment. It changes all the time.
off, joe, which album would you say is your favorite album to play tracks off of? I can't say I have a favorite album because I love so many of the songs for different reasons.
Then, which song is the hardest to play and dance to? Probably the hardest to play is Hard Worker. I tend to want to sit that one out because I have a mental block on it.
Have you been vying for a chance to sing with a mic for awhile? I never wanted a mic. They needed an extra backing vocal so I got one. I'm glad to have it though.
How has the band changed, personally, with the passing years? The band has changed of course. We are older, seen more, done more, everything changes with the things that life throws at you.
Thanks! and have a great show in green bay! with 5+ shows under my belt i know ya'll can't have a bad one, but unfortunately i can't afford it this time around. hopefully i can give you a hug sometime, though! I'll take a hug any day!
I love you guys! Any plans for a Live Vol. 4? And if so, when? Of courses! I would hope there is a Vol. 4 soon but there isn't anything in the works if that's what your asking.
Are the voice messages in PGFC and If It's the Beaches real? If so, who are they? They are real people.
Jocelyn from Chicago here. Just want to say thanks for all the wonderful music you guys have created. I truly believe with all of my heart that it's a divine gift from Spirit, and I am so grateful for all the lovely songs. How do the setlists get decided on as far as deep cuts/catalog songs go? It seems like there's some improv/flexibility/in the moment-ness, which is rad. Do you all sit and chat and say, "I'd like to put this in there?" Seems like there's some room for fan requests? Are there some songs that you just don't really ever play live so much? I heard there was a great feeling of love that allowed for "Greatest Sum" last night, for instance. To that end ... what determines when you'll come out aftebefore a show to meet/greet/chat up with all of the fans/people who like to hang out and hope? Mood/schedule/physicality, etc? So each night's setlist is different as you all know. Before the show, sometimes as close to a half hour before show time, S, S, & B sit down and start talking through the setlist. Often times deep cuts get fleshed out in sound check just so they aren't sprung on the rest of us. However, sometimes, deep cuts make it to an audible on stage. That's when you really start to sweat. There isn't so much room for fan requests as there is just being smitten by a good request from a fan or one that might fit so perfectly in the set.
There are so many songs that don't get played much, and I think that if we had some time to rehearse we could work some of them out. However, due to our tour schedule it's not always possible to take time out from our time home to practice. So, here's a great question about our decision to talk to fans. Understand that if we had limitless health and strength and time we would talk to everyone if possible. It's just not the case most of the time. For instance if we are just starting of a 5 day run it may not be wise to go out in below freezing weather to talk to fans at the risk of getting sick. That being said, there is no decision that is made on the bus. If anyone can go out they will. And trust me, it's tough to keep Scott from wanting to talk to people. We've just learned it's just not always the best decision for the sake of our shows.
Is there any way you can post a video of what your talking voice sounds like? My Speaking Voice
Hi Joe, thanks for taking the time do to an AMA. Do you as an individual, or together as a group, have goals that contribute to the success of the band? Do you have any stories about fans crossing the line into "creepy" territory? We all try to be on time and responsible for each other. That may help.
I took this picture of you guys at your show in Halifax, Nova Scotia. How did you like eastern Canada? Link to imgur.com. Canada has always been great to us. It's so amazing how large Canada is but, how when we are there it feels like being welcomed back home. It's odd like that. Such great shows up there!
Any thought on doing intimate acoustic shows like Springsteen and Jackson Browne have done? Shows in smaller auditoriums where the audience is even asked not to clap until the end? It's an idea that really appeals to me and I'd bet plenty of other fans. Of course. But, nothing is on the books that I know of. That would be spectacular!
From a fellow cellist, how hard was the transition from classical training to what you do now? Once I gave up on feeling like a fool, it became easier. After all it's just a feeling!
As I just got engaged, and am a huge fan of the band as a whole ( I have 3 Avett related tattoos, as well as all the albums and recordings I can find of course), what song do you think should be my soon to be bride and I's wedding song? (Out of the Avett Bros catalog?) I think Murder in the City makes for a hilarious wedding song.
Also question for Joe, how do you swing around a cello like that? You must be ripped at this point! Keep on being amazing! I'm so ripped you can't believe it. NOT!
Last edit: Is there a good version of the recording of kick drum heart that was on the Paris part 2 video that crackerfarm released? It's a slowed down version and it is beautiful. And, that version of kick drum I doubt is recorded anywhere other than crackers camera.
What song made you fall in love with The Brother’s music? (Mine was “The Weight of Lies”) It was actually their energy on stage that made me fall in love with their music. Hearing tender songs like that was new to me!
What was it like working with Rick Rubin? I like to think he is like a giant teddy bear when you meet him in person. How is Bobs daughter doing? That video he shared of her time at St. Jude's was heart breaking. Working with Rick at first, as you could imagine, was nerve racking. He's been in the business for as long as I've been alive probably and has made some amazing music and has a knowledge that I will never touch. But, at the end of the day, he's just a big music lover. He also gives great hugs.
Buckley is the cutest---what's his favorite pastime? :) Oh I dabble in whatever people will let me dabble in! I'm not music genius so I need to learn how to play it all. Too bad I just can't play much of it well!
Also, do you find it difficult to transition between folk/bluegrass/country and classical music? Do you dabble in both? Buckley favorite past time is eating. Of course!
I know this is a long shot but do you have any plans to sneak through the midwest on your next tour? So many of us Omahans/Lincolnites LOVE you guys and would be so supportive of a show in town. There just isn't a chance that any more shows will be added. It's time to wrap things up for the tour year. Our health is dwindling and our families miss us. It's time to get home and spend some time with them.
But I be you we'll be back next year.
Does the band attend any kind of worship service during the week? We do not. There generally isn't much time to do anything while we are touring. Most of our time is spent working up a song, or trying to stay healthy.
Time for reverence has to be something that one seeks out on their own.
How does it feel to have the whole crowd sing along to your cello during 'Go To Sleep'? Amazing of course. It is a joy to play that song and feel like everyone is in it together.
Long time fan here, I love you guys! What are some of y'all's favorite modern bands and influences in music today? Also, I'm seeing you guys okay in St Francisville tomorrow, and if I could score an autograph, I could die happy. <3. Scott & Joe: Ryan Adams, Dr. Dog, Sufjan Stevens, Regina Spektor, Felice Brothers, Bombadil, Brett Dennen, Band of Horses, Bon Iver, Langhorn Slim, Michael Kiwanuka, Ben Sollee, Gillian Welch and David Rawlings, Mark Lannigan(sp?), Shovels and Rope, Lake Street Dive, Queens of the Stone Age, Evan Dando, so many that we are forgetting.
Come find us and we'll sign it.
Hey Joe, really enjoyed Magpie and all the other albums. I have to ask, any hope of the metal songs from your stint on Jimmy Fallon ever going to make it to the live stage? I think it would be awesome to hear you guys do a full song or two like that. Probably not. But wouldn't it be great if just one of them made it to a setlist?
How do the Avett's make their hair so beautiful? What are their secrets? Not showering and hair products. Gross, I know!
Question you, and the whole band: it seems like there is a complicated relationship between spreading your art and the issue of celebrity and pressures to perform. (I feel like this is touched on in some of your music as well) How do you manage that balance in a way that's healthy and productive? How do you cope with the isolating nature of celebrity? I don't know if any of us feels a pressure to perform, rather, we are chomping at the bit to get on stage TO perform. I honestly believe that everyone on stage is a born performer and just loves to be out there and playing for everyone and interfacing. The balance between art and celebrity is a really tough balance, and the way that I deal with it is by believing that I'm not a celebrity and not doing anything differently from how I would do them if I weren't in the Avett Brothers. I don't hide myself or try to disguise myself when I go out. I just go and 99% of the time, most people just pass and say hello and go on their way. What people don't realize is that I WANT to talk to you. :)
I follow you on Twitter, so I know you're a huge foodie. What was the best dish you have eaten, and where? (not your cooking) There are a couple that stick out. Sous Vide venison at Fearrington House, and the Omelet at Per Se. Both of them revolutionized flavors in my mouth.
One more question - as a big fan of the Crackerfarm videos, are there any plans to put out a collection of those songs as an album or some kind of digital release? If there are that's something cracker would know. You should ask him on twitter @crackerfarm.
Hey Joe! After seeing you guys perform numerous times at numerous venues, for some reason my two favorite sets are from Newport Folk Festival in 2011 and this past summer. Is there a different atmosphere when you play at festivals such as Newport due to the rich history and “folkier” attitude? Scott: We're pretty sure that has something to do with it but we've also noticed patterns in relation to towns and seasons, where we are at in the year, how fresh or tired we are. We've noticed that our band reacts to that, and Newport seems to be where we adapt to well from our perspective as well!
Hi Joe, thanks for doing this AMA. Seeing you rock with a cello has made me want to learn how to play as well. I was wondering if you play any other instruments. Also is there an instrument that you wish you could play? I wish I could play the piano and the guitar. In fact, anyone out there who is a budding musician of any age, learn how to play the piano. I don't care what your excuse is, LEARN HOW TO PLAY PIANO!
Joe, in a wood working show down with Nick Offerman, who would win? Also, who's got the best follicular density (beardwise) in the band? As a fun bonus fact, both myself and my brother have Avett's tattoo's, massive fans! Nick I'm a newby.
Hey! I saw you guys in Little Rock last night! Awesome show! Where's your favorite spot to eat in Little Rock? I also wanted to thank all of you guys for the great evening(s)! I haven't had the chance to explore Little Rock for food sadly. What do you recommend?
I saw you guys at Mud Island in Memphis last year as well (or was it this year?). Both shows were great. Do you prefer indoor shows or outdoor shows? I don't think I prefer indoor over outdoor or outdoor over indoor.
1) How are you so cool? 6) Seriously, HOW are you so cool? 1) I'm not that cool.
4) What's your favorite color besides black? 4)Light Black - Gray.
5) Your solo at the end of Salina is one of the greatest things, every time it happens. This isn't a question, just a statement. 6) Again, I'm kind of a nerd. Actually more than just kind of a nerd. I'm a nerd. Just me in the room now.
The show posters are highly anticipated and are like the gravy for each show. I may or may not own a significant amount of these beauties. How do you find the artists and do they get free reign of the design? I don't know exactly how they are selected, but I know that Travis our Merchandise Manager knows how it all goes down. And, thank you for liking the posters. I have a few of them myself. Though, I don't have a lot of the ones you would think I should have.
Thank you guys for making the music you do - you all have moved me in more ways than I thought possible more times than I can count. I would love to work with Andrew Bird. I've said it many many times and I'm hoping it'll happen one day. Also, Ben Sollee and I have discussed doing a collaboration at some point, I just don't know when both of our schedules will permit it.
Anywho: Who in the music industry would you like to collaborate with on a song/album? Is there any particular genre or subgenre of music that you would like to experiment with? We got to watch Seun Kuti in Malmö, Sweden this past summer and his music and performance blew me away.
Whats your favorite venue? Has to be Red Rocks, right? It's a toss up. Radio City was pretty darn cool you see. But of course I love Red Rocks for it's historic natural feel, and the Gorge. I have loved so many venues across the states though. Some of them just feel right as soon as you walk through the loading doors.
Have you ever thought of busting a cello on-stage, aka "The Who"? Oh man, if you knew how expensive cellos are, and how many kids are out there who can't even afford a cheap cello, I don't think I could do it in good conscience.
Hi Joe! HUGE fan, btw. Seriously this band enriches my life every single day. ♥ Anywhooo, I was just wondering when you started playing cello? And are your parents musicians or did they influence you to get into music? Both my parents, and both of my sisters, as well as 10 of my cousins I think, at some point played an instrument. I grew up in a very musical family. There were two areas of concentration growing up, math, and music. I was 9 when I started playing.
You spent a fair amount of time in NYC this year. What was the best experience off the stage while you were there? Scott and I both agree that our dining experiences at the Collichio & Sons and Craft, both were amazing meals and their hospitality exceeds expectations. If any of you have a chance to go to either restaurant, it is worth it!
What are you thankful for on this journey of love and music and creation? And to follow that up I am thankful for good people like you spreading good words full of love. Thank you for being you. Love and Music and Creation. :)
How has social media affected the band and the way you guys promote your music and/or the band's brand? I guess in all the obvious ways. In order to stay current you have to understand, at least at the surface level, how emerging technologies effect the world around us. Just as you would imagine, knowing how to tweet, like, post, reddit, are all things that are just supplements to what is already going on.
Excuse me if my answers start getting incoherent. I'm feeling a little under the weather today.
Joe! I'm so glad you're on Reddit! The songs that you play with The Avett Brothers are so meaningful and beautiful. How did you become part of the band and how can I send you guys some fan mail? I can't wait to see y'all in March on tour! Brief history of how I met the band
Hey Joe! Thanks so much for doing this AMA - one of the many things I love about The Avett Brothers is that you guys seem to really care and appreciate your fans! I have loved seeing you guys live over the past few years. Some of my best memories include road trips, camping out in line, meeting new people, dancing, laughing and singing before/during/after your shows. They're like one big adventure for me. I just want to thank you all for making such incredible music that draws people together like I haven't seen before. Anyways, do you have a favorite tour memory? I guess one of my favorite tour memories was waking up at 4am to wait for the breakfast buffet to open at 530am in Sydney Australia. It is a favorite memory because I remember everyone slowing showing up because everyone was so jet lagged and having a good laugh about who slept the least.
If someone were making you a homemade special dinner, what would you ask for? Would love to hear responses from any/all of you. If someone was making me a home made dinner I wouldn't ask for anything. I love being surprised and to be honest, I've never had a bad home made dinner.
I've been to 60ish shows, but my all time favorite was the Syracuse NY show because you opened with all the Pretty Girl songs. Can you tell me what compelled you guys to do that? I believe, that was Bob's idea. That was quite some time ago, funny thing is, I remember there being a burrito shop next door right? They have really good habanero salsa.
Top three all time favorite day time talk show hosts? Day time?!?! I don't know if I know any? Ellen, Ellen, and Ellen. I dunno any others.
Just bought some of your bands music a couple of weeks ago. I know you guys have been at it a long time and I'm late to the party, but wanted to say how much I like your recent albums. My question: Is the squirrelly front guy (the shorter brother) nothing but trouble? He kinda looks like trouble to me. Scott, he's a lot of trouble, but he also wrangles us in. We all like to keep tabs on each other, and keep each other in check.
I know you love coffee, and the art of making it (I do as well). Most memorable cup of coffee? Favorite beans? I visited Taos, NM this summer and I have to say, everywhere I went had delicious coffee. Most memorable has to be my first real pour over from, now closed, 3-Cups in Chapel Hill. I am in love with Aida Batlle's coffees from El Salvador.
What kind of shampoo/conditioner do you use? Haha, do you really want to know? Aveda, Dry Remedy, Morrocan Oil, Aveda Pommade.
Huge AB fan, i wondering since you guys put on such an energetic show have there been any injuries sustained due on stage shenanigans (jumping around aimlessly, standing on kick drums, etc.). Also im curious on what the process is for picking the setlist every night because I feel each setlist is pretty much perfect and tailored for that specific audience. are there any song that you guys will never play again ( i ask because i see a lot of bands avoiding there most comercial songs or olders songs for various reasons). lastly, how did you guys hook up with chad smith from the chili peppers? Injuries are pretty common as you get older I think. My shoulder chronically hurts, scott is turning into a hunch front, seth has bad knees, bob is fine though. He's strong :)
Chad Smith recorded on The Carpenter and we had the pleasure of chatting with him a few times since then.
When people are thinking of the Avett Brother, and this whole new indie-folk thing in general, there's this feeling that the genre is tryin gto bring music back to a more organic place. What do you think about that sentiment? How would you reconsile that sentiment with some artists' work like Daft Punk or Phoenix? I can't speak on Daft Punk or Phoenix because I don't know their catalogue well enough. But I have heard a similar question asked before and I loved the answer, and it's that folk has always, been there. It just was being called other things. The music that is organic, has always been there as long as one was willing to seek it out. Now, whether this is a folk revolution or not is a different question. I think people are just seeking good honest music.
Has anyone fallen off the stage while performing? Seth has come close. He's fallen back ON to the stage before.
What's your favorite song to perform live? That's a nightly changing song. Each night it could easily be a new song or an old song. It all depends on how the crowd reacts. It's amazing how much the audience affects the mood of a show for me.
The Avett Brother's music, in my opinion, causes people to have strong emotional connections with certain songs. Is there a certain song, new or old, that you have a strong emotional connection with and why? I have a strong emotional connection with a lot of songs of course. Otherwise it would be difficult to portray MY emotion through the brother's songs. It's something that non-singers have to battle with. How do you emote over words. It's tough, but I think once in a while it comes across.
Do you play live without your glasses because you would probably rock them off if you wore them? Exactly, however, recently I'm having to wear them because I ran out of contacts.
When playing festivals, do y'all get to get out and enjoy the food and other bands too or just sit back and patiently wait for your time to perform? We rarely get to get out and walk around. Most festivals are great times for press to get their face time with us. SO, we spend a lot of time talking and meeting folks.
Who’s the funniest band member out of Seth, Scott, Bob, and yourself? Funniest Band Member is probably Paul or Mike. They are constantly laughing at themselves. It's great!
Any advice for novice woodworkers? Novice wood workers, start with hand tools and work your way up. Power tools are dangerous and without the correct training injury is eminent!
I saw you in Utrecht last August. I've been trying to come up with a question for a while now, and I just can't come up with, but I really enjoyed Pretty Girl from Chile and wanted to tell you what a great time I had at the concert! I guess if I have to ask a question, what type of chocolate do you like? Dark or milk, any brand? I'm a fan of semi-sweet dark with sea salt. What about you?
I want to know more about crackerfarm videos. Do you create a lot of videos while you're hanging out with Mike and then he chooses which ones he wants to release and when, or are they strategically planned by both the band and crackerfarm to be released at certain times? Cracker does what cracker wants. :) He makes a lot of videos and has creative ideas about them. Sometimes the guys ask to film one of they have a song they have to sing. It's all very much between artist and artist.
Hey Joe! Just want to say you guys were my first concert and I really appreciate that you and Scott actually took the time to shake my hands after your show in Ybor. What's day to day life on tour like? One day in my life. Wake up, coffee, breakfast, coffee, answer emails, coffee, answer social media fan mail, talk to the guys, drink more coffee, get in to the venue, play some songs, eat dinner, play a couple more songs, get ready for the show, perform, get on the bus, wind down, go to sleep.
What kind of wild shenanigans do you boys get into? Oh we are a bit too old to survive shenanigans. We generally stay pretty low key.
What was your most memorable live show? Thanks for doing this AMA, huge fan of the band! One of my most memorable in recent memory was performing vanity with Chris Cornell. I got chills!
How did you meet the brothers? Would you say you three are close? I appreciate your music so much. Never stop! History
We are all very close down to our crew guys.
How heavy is a cello? How much of a pain in the ass is it to lug a cello around? It's heavy enough to give me back problems! But it's not as heavy as you might think. And growing up, playing the cello was NOT cool. It was even more uncool to have to lug it around. Lucky for me, I didn't care about my cool factor, because I loved playing cello.
Hi Guys. Thanks for participating in this Joe. I love how involved you are with social media. I'll be at the Cheerwine Giveback show Thursday. You all give so much back to many charities and I really appreciate that. The music of The Avett Brothers speaks to me in many ways. I feel a kinship with you all and the other fans of the band. I feel free and happy enjoying the moment when I'm at one if your shows. I'm nothing short of thankful. Joe I know you are a foodie but I believe you also like craft beers. What's your favorite beer? Well, my favorite beer is probably something light and crisp. I'm a bit over heavy beers at the moment. I find them a bit overwhelming. I like Kolschs, or since it's entering fall, I'm back on wine.
Any of you guys like to go fishing? I do. But I'm terrible at it. Never catch anything. In fact over 4th of July weekend I went fishing with my Em and her family. Everyone caught someone but me. Scratch that everyone caught 2-3 things. I caught about 10 sticks.
How much are you involved with planning new songs? I'm not sure what you're asking. Lyrically or musically?
Lyrically I have no input, because I don't really have much to say. Musically, I get to put my own twists on songs mostly. I'm given very much creative liberty.
Let's talk Tabata kettle bell swings! How much do you love/hate those? Love love love. No hate here. I'm tough...GRRR.
Hey Joe, thanks again for stopping by and answering our questions! What is your favorite place to eat on the road, and what is the band's collective favorite place to eat on the road? Tough question, because I have many many favorites across the country. In Columbus the N. Star Cafe has a great veggie burger. Casa Nueva Cantina in Athens, OH just to name a couple.
Who is the cornhole champ? Can I play with you guys?! I think it's currently Dane? Maybe Paul.
Is there a song that you are tired of playing? There has to be one... In fact there isn't one. We aren't really known for performing songs the same way every night.
Joe, been a fan of the boys for 10 years now (i even remember your BUS days!) watching you find your niche in this band has been exciting from your first days on stage way back in '07. i love this band so much and it has shown from the beginning that you are a such a fan too. So...are the Avett Bros. your favorite band too? Yep! I just can't admit it to them since it would embarrass them too much.
In one of your twitter Q&A's, you said there was "nothing" you most enjoyed about Louisiana. Bad experience? It seems like someone with such a strong passion for food and music like you would really enjoy it. I don't think I've ever said that. I love so many parts of LA. The food is so near and dear to my heart, and the culture down here is so rich with history that it feels like a different country at times.
Last updated: 2013-11-13 22:01 UTC
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